Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Drunk people like late night drive thrus

Oh… now you’ve brought up the other important reason windows need to roll down. Don’t want anyone stuck in the back of your Robotaxi puking on the floor because they can’t roll down the window.

 

[insaneoctane]

I find 23M shares traded in seconds fascinating. While I get the triple witching day, can someone take a shot at explaining why and the significance of such a high volume closing cross (for a friend)?

 

[bkp_duke]

I find 23M shares traded in seconds fascinating. While I get the triple witching day, can someone take a shot at explaining why and the significance of such a high volume closing cross (for a friend)?

I believe it is quarterly rebalancing. So index funds that have to match the index would put there orders in to execute at closing. Hence, a crap-ton of automated buying/selling in seconds, all by different funds that need to follow the proportions of the S&P 500.

 

[MC3OZ]

U.S. Marines did exactly that for their outposts in Afghanistan. Not only cheaper, but fewer dead truck drivers in the fuel convoys, too.

Bonus.

Aside from the fact that solar and batteries only needs to be carried once, it can do useful things like powering lighting and running computers/phones.

It is true that the Fossil Fuel based solution can do this via a separate generator. but that also uses fuel which needs to be replaced.

IMO the developing world will not settle for 2nd best and energy dependence, when they can have the latest technology, and make / store their own energy.

 

[Thekiwi]

Aside from the fact that solar and batteries only needs to be carried once, it can do useful things like powering lighting and running computers/phones.

It is true that the Fossil Fuel based solution can do this via a separate generator. but that also uses fuel which needs to be replaced.

IMO the developing world will not settle for 2nd best and energy dependence, when they can have the latest technology, and make / store their own energy.

Can also power a Starlink terminal and a connected cellular tower - could be the best/cheapest way to connect very remote settlements with a dispersed population with mobile data access.

 

[MikeC]

I believe it is quarterly rebalancing. So index funds that have to match the index would put there orders in to execute at closing. Hence, a crap-ton of automated buying/selling in seconds, all by different funds that need to follow the proportions of the S&P 500.

And it was especially big because of the effect of Elon selling this quarter, as had been predicted by @generalenthu.

 

[dhanson865]

Right now it is not 95% or higher. I have been at 98% for 3 months and still don't have the beta. It is limited to 100k cars today.
Starting soon it goes to everyone at 80% or higher. That's different.

Having the right to take FSD away from someone can be accounted for similar to the way Tesla estimates and reserves for product returns.
If they have statistics that show they lockout 5% of the FSD beta users, they can hold back 5% and adjust each month based on updated stats.

Tesla has $2.7B in Deferred Revenue related to the Auto business most of it FSD deferred revenue.
Of the $2.7B, Tesla stated in the Q2 10Q that it expects to realize $1B in the next 12 months.
I believe this $1B number relates to FSD in the US representing about 250,000 vehicles.
I think if 10.69.2.1 is available to anyone with a score of 80% or higher, then Tesla may recognize around $800m in Q3 adding about $0.23 to earnings which on it's own would provide a 20% beat on Wall Street's $1.07 earnings estimate.

In my opinion, for revenue recognition, if an FSD purchaser in the US had not bothered to use the Safety Score app, Tesla would still recognize the revenue as they have made it available to them. In other words, they are only preventing people from getting FSD beta with scores below 80%.

I am open to other viewpoints if anyone has different thinking on this.

View attachment 853091

Doesn't say anything about a 100,000 cars in this tweet by Elon and I don't remember him ever announcing a change in percentage that also mentioned 100,000.

I'm saying he just announces the minimum score and then his team adds more people.

I'm thinking you are misinterpreting his tweet and I'm supprised you can use the logic of it being dropped to 95 while you don't have it at 98% without applying to others having a score above 80 that won't get FSD when the minimum score switches to 80%. Shouldn't the same logic carry over no matter the new score required to get in?

 

[jabloomf1230]

What I look for is the degree of “human-like” feel In its actions. This release, like all so far, is a reflection of a neural net evolving toward human behavior. This release feels more human-like to me.

I got the same impression, but I didn't want to post it for fear of creating a chain of rebuttals that would clog this thread.

 

[2daMoon]

Sliding doors?

The Robotaxi will eventually have a replicator.

Tea, Earl Grey, Hot. ... in a sippy cup.

 

[Big Time]

Looks like we went green in AH

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Apparently Tesla is setting the wilderness on fire, I had no idea! Good thing I logged into my CNBC app this evening.

I mean..... WTF is this?

 

[thesmokingman]

Apparently Tesla is setting the wilderness on fire, I had no idea! Good thing I logged into my CNBC app this evening.

I mean..... WTF is this?

This is what they teach in Journalism

Tesla + Fire = ratings!
Teslas crashing into anything = ratings!
Musk + anything = ratings!
.... the list could literally go on and on

 

[betstarship]

Right smack dab in the middle there between Sacramento and Reno/Sparks.

 

[mongo]

View attachment 853351

Doesn't say anything about a 100,000 cars in this tweet by Elon and I don't remember him ever announcing a change in percentage that also mentioned 100,000.

I'm saying he just announces the minimum score and then his team adds more people.

I'm thinking you are misinterpreting his tweet and I'm supprised you can use the logic of it being dropped to 95 while you don't have it at 98% without applying to others having a score above 80 that won't get FSD when the minimum score switches to 80%. Shouldn't the same logic carry over no matter the new score required to get in?

FWIW, three weeks later, 10.12.2 expanded FSD Beta to 100k cars.
(No, not Chryslers )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533179948743151616

 

[AudubonB]

This is what they teach in Journalism

Tesla + Fire = ratings!
Teslas crashing into anything = ratings!
Musk + anything = ratings!
.... the list could literally go on and on

“Well, they asked for it when they located in Sparks.”

 

[dhanson865]

FWIW, three weeks later, 10.12.2 expanded FSD Beta to 100k cars.
(No, not Chryslers )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533179948743151616

Yes, he has announced changes in minimum percentage to get into FSD Beta

Yes, he has announced changes in how many people will get into FSD Beta

My point is that he doesn't usually tie those two concepts together and he has announce way more percentage changes than amount changes.

Thus based on past behavior I'd expect the 80% change to be loosely related to a change in number of beta testers and the size to not be specified or change over time. I don't expect it to go from the current number to everyone in the space of one day.

So if 80% becomes the new safety score minimum how many weeks or months will it be before we stop seeing posts from users saying "but I have score xx and I don't have FSD Beta yet"?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I find 23M shares traded in seconds fascinating. While I get the triple witching day, can someone take a shot at explaining why and the significance of such a high volume closing cross (for a friend)?

It was the S&P 500 index rebalancing date. Three months ago (last quarterly rebalancing), TSLA held a 1.75 % fraction of the S&P 500. Lately, it's been closer to 2.15% of the Index (note: there's a 'Date of Record' for the rebalancing which is separate from, and prior to, the rebalancing date, but yada...)

So the large volume at the closing cross today (23M shares) was like a mini-version of the S&P 500 Addition event (Dec 18, 2020) when ~250M*3 (post-split) shares traded hands at the closing cross.

So if Sep 2022 repeats the pattern from Dec2020, then I expect two results:

1. approx 55% of those 23M shares from Sep 15, 2022 were sold short by MMs+Hedge funds, and
2. that those entities will need to cover those short shares over the next 12 trading sessions, decreasing supply of TSLA, and resulting in a higher equilibrium SP.

My guess? Less than +1% difference, so likely will not stand out against the daily noise (that's how MMs like it).

Cheers!

 

[Hytra]

Tesla Twitter, 10,000 Model Ys built at Giga Texas to date

 

[GrimRe]

is there a way to ascertain the run rate based on this?

 

[Cattledog]

is there a way to ascertain the run rate based on this?

Probably up around 1,000/week. I'm sure they'd like to hit/exceed that this quarter.