Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhrivnak]

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IF you can get the PowerWalls at that price I would jump on it. For me in East TN it was considerably more for the PowerWalls.

 

[AndrewZ]

Doug DeMuro has a video out stating used Tesla prices have dropped faster than other makes. He makes the statement based on data he is seeing from the vehicle auction website he owns (Cars and Bids). The reasons are:

• Macro - affecting all vehicles but Tesla more as a higher % of Tesla purchasers are tech/finance related and they have been disproportionately hit with layoffs or interest rate rises
• Orderbook reduction - people don't need to either pay up for used or wait 7 months for new anymore
• Elon - alienating core fans
• Competition - tesla models have an aging design and competitors catching up in many areas

Strangely he left out increases in production which is the biggest driver in reduced used prices IMO.

He said that even he is getting interested in picking up an older Model 3 Performance if they get down to ~$25k used given the performance/value tradeoff, and he's never shown an interest in owning one before.

For a good data point, CarGurus has an often-cited Used Car Price Trends page including a breakdown by body type and an overall index:

Used Car Price Trends - CarGurus Pricing Index

Stay on top of used car price trends and get real-time industry-leading market insights.

www.cargurus.com

Interestingly the declines are much more exaggerated in the US versus Canada, but that could be more data availability or something -- change the URL to .ca if you're interested in comparing to Canada.

Grouping Tesla with other Luxury brands, I think it moreso looks like Tesla's just shot up more and thus had more to fall but isn't actually worse off -- basically I would just call it higher volatility.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m sorry but Ford going under or even merging with someone would be an absolute tragedy, let’s not forget the heritage and history of this company? they basically started the car industry with the Model T, they’ve built some legendary cars over the decades, I’ve always owned Fords myself so yeh I’ve got a soft spot for them, I like there CEO Jim Farley as well, he seems a decent guy, look I’m not fussed about the rest of legacy auto but I hope Ford can fight through it all and survive..

Agreed, and directly relevant to us, Windows needeed IOS to avoid anti-trust litigation as Tesla will need some other domestic competition.

 

[Singuy]

Uber driver documented 6 days worth of conversation to get a feel of the optics on Tesla and recent price drop.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608396264093388803

 

[thesmokingman]

Are you the one in the middle ??

Btw... you asked for it. /s

 

[bkp_duke]

Falcon Heavy Launch in ~13 minutes:

 

[2daMoon]

Interesting, I was reading Nextdoor and apparently near us there is a large area that was bought by a developer. Well apparently construction is stalled or something and they rented the space out to stealerships. They now use the space to store their inventory and apparently there are so many vehicles that complaint threads of eyesores and such on Nextdoor now. That must hurt having to store so many ICE on the local level.

I just have to correct you as those vehicles are not "stored."

The manufacturers count them as "delivered" doncha know?

 

[NicoV]

Interesting begin-of-quarter situation in Europe: If you look at the overal picture for the 4 real-time reporting countries at Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market
we already clearly see more start-of-quarter registrations than all previous quarters. So there is some wave unwinding.
Looking at the details per car at Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market
the bulk of the deliveries are Model Y. These may be Berlin produced cars. However there are still US (S,X) and China produced cars (Model 3) being delivered, so there was definitely a number of cars that couldn’t be delivered at the end of Q4. Note that those 4 countries represented 1/6 of the European sales last year.

 

[Zaxxon]

Took a few days, but I talked to my first friend who has been holding off of a Tesla purchase and is now scheduled to test-drive this week.

 

[SageBrush]

So, it's really a combo of what we both said,... grid input is lesser because of local battery storage (likely a powerpack, perhaps in specific implementation). but allows for full power to each stall, hence the peak load can be 25 megawatts...

I would phrase this differently:

A 1 MW cabinet has a 350 kW input, and up to 575 kWh battery storage. Up to one 1 MW can be output as 250 kW * 4 if available.

 

[MP3Mike]

So, it's really a combo of what we both said,... grid input is lesser because of local battery storage (likely a powerpack, perhaps in specific implementation). but allows for full power to each stall, hence the peak load can be 25 megawatts...

No, because most V3 sites have no battery storage. (And as such max out at 90kW per stall if it is fully utilized. Or a typical 8 stall V3 site can output 250kW to ~3 stalls at the same time while the other 5 stalls are empty.)

And it is highly unlikely that that site has 16MW of storage capability. That would require at least 9 Megapacks, or about $18 million worth of them. We don't even know if they have the AC inputs on the cabinets maxed out.

BTW I have never heard of a Supercharger site that was built out to support 250kW on every stall at the same time.

 

[Curt Renz]

engadget - this afternoon:
Wyoming wants to phase out sales of new EVs by 2035

 

[BornToFly]

Great thread by James:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614772858546274305

Notice how ASP is staying relatively flat.

 

[TrendTrader007]

there is very real danger of missing out on TSLA running up big in 2023, somewhat similar to 2013
all those who sold near lows over last several weeks could potentially be at risk of experiencing intense regret that could haunt them for rest of their lives.
i sincerely hope i am wrong but once this train leaves the station, it is not coming back.
as to why i think so, i could write an entire chapter about investor psychology, phenomenon of recency etc. but i would be wasting my breath.
let this brief post serve as a reminder to those who sold recently that the emotional pain and suffering that comes with losing 70 to 90% of your portfolio pales in comparison to watching the same stock subsequently run up 3 to 20X over next few years.
i am not a prophet, so i could be entirely wrong and maybe those who sold recently will have last laugh
for their sake, i certainly hope so
Not financial advice
just my personal biased opinion

on a side note, those investors who make buy or sell on basis of "logic" end up nowhere fast.
if stock market operated on basis of logic, philosophers would be billionaires
(even Soros calls himself a "failed philosopher")
oh! the sheer irony of making decisions based on "rational thinking"

whether it is TSLA or any other stock, it is impossible to make 100% rational decision.
good luck overcoming limbic system with cortical control
in times of sheer panic or sheer exultation it is 100% limbic system in driver's seat
prefrontal cortex has zero say
i am afraid that is the distinctly unenviable fate that has befallen those who sold TSLA in recent times
again, not financial advice

 

[nativewolf]

"It was slow, but worked" doesn't cut it. Of course, it's going to be slow in a Lightning with low efficiency and low maximum charging speed, and that is exactly why many people are currently reluctant to make the switch from gas to electric, charging takes too long, or so they've heard. The Ford Lightning is not going to change that perception, it's going to strengthen it.

My typical charging stop on Interstate trips is 15 minutes in my Performance Model 3 with Aero wheels, barely enough time to stretch out and take care of necessities. I target 10-15% SOC upon arrival.

What kind of Tesla did you have experience with before you bought the Ford Lightning?

Family has model 3, you know what- it can’t haul 100 gallons of diesel for our equipment, plus 20 gallons of oils, 10 gallons of grease, and 40 hydraulic hoses that are all in the truck and all made it on the 1200 mile trip. It did cut it. Around town it is just fine, the charging is fine, performance is fine, simple, back seat is brilliant space for a very large Komondor. You know what else, I was able to buy it unlike the CT I had on reservation. I get 150kw speeds charging at the EA high speed chargers and it seems that is as good as the model 3. I charged many times right beside Teslas during the road trip. I assume because it was cheaper.

At the work site housing we have a home charger off a 30amp 220. More than enough for the daily drives. Dog stays cool all day for pennies. Do I wish it had more range, sure but I was able to buy this one.

 

[nativewolf]

Also after a month of travels on high speed chargers o have seen 2 stalls with errors out of dozens and dozens on maybe 20 different sites. What surprised me were the Tesla’s at electrify America sites.

 

[theschnell]

I’m sorry but Ford going under or even merging with someone would be an absolute tragedy, let’s not forget the heritage and history of this company? they basically started the car industry with the Model T, they’ve built some legendary cars over the decades, I’ve always owned Fords myself so yeh I’ve got a soft spot for them, I like there CEO Jim Farley as well, he seems a decent guy, look I’m not fussed about the rest of legacy auto but I hope Ford can fight through it all and survive..

Ford has the drag of a high debt load, but I think Farley is going to do his best to push them into the electric future. It’s a tough road, but at least he’s making a very legitimate attempt.

 

[Snerruc]

Also after a month of travels on high speed chargers o have seen 2 stalls with errors out of dozens and dozens on maybe 20 different sites. What surprised me were the Tesla’s at electrify America sites.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if you went to the supercharging thread and saw the long thread about charging at EA, especially when free. There are a lot of people.

 

[thesmokingman]

It's happening. Chinese competitors are getting squeezed. This is karmic though considering who spurred those protests on.

However, a BYD salesperson noted that many buyers with reservations came to the store to cancel their orders and transfer to Tesla. The most affected models are the BYD Seal and BYD Han, which compete directly with the Tesla Model 3.

Tesla China’s price cuts causing mass buyers deflection from BYD

Tesla China rang in the New Year with a slew of price cuts, and the effect has been both explosive and instant. One of the competitors feeling the heat is local Chinese brand BYD. Local […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Singuy]

It's happening. Chinese competitors are getting squeezed. This is karmic though considering who spurred those protests on.

Tesla China’s price cuts causing mass buyers deflection from BYD

Tesla China rang in the New Year with a slew of price cuts, and the effect has been both explosive and instant. One of the competitors feeling the heat is local Chinese brand BYD. Local […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Lots of BS protests on twitter too. I saw some accounts crying about losing value on their Tesla but see no indication they are a Tesla owner.