Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

Wow, AI is getting really impressive. I guess TSLA is headed to $232 by Oct 1 and $446 within 3 months!

AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023

AI sets the price for Tesla (TSLA) stocks to $232.15 by October, 1, but gives bullish predictions for a higher time frame.

finbold.com

 

[Singuy]

Not sure why Tesla is down specifically today with a flat NASDAQ and -0.25% S&P. Most China BEV stocks are well up today. AI stocks up. Even Ford and Stallantis up UAW strike and all. My guess is Cybertruck (latest Austin drone footage shows stoppage of production) along with revised higher for longer interest rate. Regardless, one trading day does not make a stock.

IMO Cybertruck has already been revealed through videos and sightings (except for confirming specifics on range and pricing). Cybertruck will move the TSLA stock only when production in mass volumes (1,000+ per week) and this is still two quarters away (Q1, 2024).

For what it is worth, TSLA is still trending increases above the recent lows (RED line) and hopefully this can hold. If so, this gets TSLA to $300 by February 2024. I previously was hopeful for $300 by end of 2023, however with Cybertruck and Interest data, another couple of months seems reasonable. This line appears near parallel with the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line). Yes, both these lines are linear and I believe even the Stephenson Indicator will be achievable in the near future when Tesla is producing 5,000+ Cybertrucks per week and major ramping of Tesla Energy. We simply are not there yet. Just trying to set expectations. No teacups for me. Just some black coffee, thank you.
View attachment 976359

Think they are just having Tesla catching up for their over performance.

1 month performance of Tesla is +5.28%. I believe Tesla is the out performer out of the magnificent 7 as QQQ tanked.

During the same time period

QQQ: -2.28%
NVDA: -9.63%
AMD: -10.65%
SHOP: -3.9%
APPL: -2.64%
MSFT: -2.9%
Google: -1.42%
Amaz: -3.47%
NIO: -20.98%
Li: 0.51%
Xpeng: 2.42%
Nflix: -10.75%
Meta: 1.91%

 

[Drumheller]

Wow, AI is getting really impressive. I guess TSLA is headed to $232 by Oct 1 and $446 within 3 months!

AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023

AI sets the price for Tesla (TSLA) stocks to $232.15 by October, 1, but gives bullish predictions for a higher time frame.

finbold.com

Sounds good to me

 

[BornToFly]

Maybe this will help on Monday....

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1705363066542493951?s=20

 

[Chunky Jr.]

That goes against the intent to reduce costs and prices as stated in the Master Plan, doesn't it?

no, because they have raised prices many times in the past

 

[Singuy]

Maybe this will help on Monday....

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1705363066542493951?s=20

Not a fan of him not calling it the plaid as that makes it a tri-motor set up. Performance could just be dual motor.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Assuming normality to some degree, where's the approximate intersection, about 230?

@SOULPEDL, For all sake and purposes the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line) and the recent low accelerating trend line (RED line) are parallel. They never meat. My guesstimate is that TSLA will stay between these two lines until something drives up the share price higher still. My comment regarding TSLA reaching greater highs is that these lines are linear and over years, stock appreciation, all things being equal, perform as an S curve, or linear when shown on an exponential graph. For example , I clearly remember the monster share appreciation back from beginning of 2013 to mid-2014. It seemed like TSLA was going up every day, up from $30 ($2.50 after splits) to $216 ($18 after splits) in 18 months . The GREEN line represents the higher lows of that period. Now I would be the first to tell you that no way this green trend line can be sustained over the long haul, except I would be wrong.

That same green trend line in the above table is shown on the table below with time frame expanded to present day. Wow. Current TSLA share price is a lot higher than the extended green trend line of bottom lows during the 2013-2014 run up, in fact 2.5X higher.

Using this same principle, ten years from now, providing Tesla successfully executes products and services already announced (we are not waiting for an iPod hidden in somebody's pocket, the road map has already been laid out before us for all to see), IMO I can see the same dramatic rise in TSLA share price as both purple and red trend lines will become the new green trend line with TSLA trading multiples above these trend lines. Time will tell.

 

[SOULPEDL]

@SOULPEDL, For all sake and purposes the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line) and the recent low accelerating trend line (RED line) are parallel. They never meat. My guesstimate is that TSLA will stay between these two lines until something drives up the share price higher still. My comment regarding TSLA reaching greater highs is that these lines are linear and over years, stock appreciation, all things being equal, perform as an S curve, or linear when shown on an exponential graph. For example , I clearly remember the monster share appreciation back from beginning of 2013 to mid-2014. It seemed like TSLA was going up every day, up from $30 ($2.50 after splits) to $216 ($18 after splits) in 18 months . The GREEN line represents the higher lows of that period. Now I would be the first to tell you that no way this green trend line can be sustained over the long haul, except I would be wrong.

View attachment 976396

That same green trend line in the above table is shown on the table below with time frame expanded to present day. Wow. Current TSLA share price is a lot higher than the extended green trend line of bottom lows during the 2013-2014 run up, in fact 2.5X higher.
View attachment 976398
Using this same principle, ten years from now, providing Tesla successfully executes products and services already announced (we are not waiting for an iPod hidden in somebody's pocket, the road map has already been laid out before us for all to see), IMO I can see the same dramatic rise in TSLA share price as both purple and red trend lines will become the new green trend line with TSLA trading multiples above these trend lines. Time will tell.

Maybe I wasn’t clear. I was asking at what price the stock intersects the red line (assuming further drop from today). Just thinking it could be a good buy price, approximately. I’m on a laptop and haven't figured out graphics yet. Was guessing at 230.

 

[JusRelax]

@bkp_duke and other San Diegans, Tesla has started rolling out it's VPP program in San Diego! Considering the high cost of electricity there, I'm assuming many San Diegans with Tesla Solar will be ecstatic about this:

Tesla welcomes SDG&E customers to Virtual Power Plant in San Diego

Tesla’s energy business expands as it opens the door to more customers on its Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program. San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) customers can now join the platform and make money from […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[GhostSkater]

I just want to add a personal anecdote on the advertising front that might be relevant to Tesla on the current period we are living because I realized there were so many similarities, other than the fact Tesla is doing amazingly well and we are done and dead

Company I work for was doing really well in 2020 to 2022, orders way in excess of production capability, similar to Tesla, specially on the same period. We have a really good product that differentiates from the rest, and are considered by many the top dog of our really small corner of the market. People usually were fine for paying more for it, because they were getting so much more. At the end of last year we had expanded to be able to at least come close to satisfying demand

Now comes this year, sales started to drop sharply, and one of the obvious many things we did was to tweak our ad game, I can't go in depth because it's not my area, and just know what the people who were responsible tell me, but despite changes of strategy, change of target public and so on, no dice, nothing changed the downwards trajectory, even introducing a lower tier version of our product didn't have much effect, while it sold good-ish, margins on it are so much lower that that the net effect was a zero sum

We were also entering a new market with a new product, and had been testing it for around 3 years, everybody that saw the prototypes had their mind blown by the concept and wanted to buy one on the spot, but on the middle of this year when we launched, in this situation, again, total failure

And different than Tesla, we don't have the cash reserve to weather the storm. Ffs, last week I tried to pay a $100 purchase order and it got declined lol. I knew it was bad because even my pay didn't come this month, but c'mon. Now my boss is MIA for 3 weeks, I know it's not funny, but I can't help but laugh at this whole situation, personal and the whole macro environment

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wow, AI is getting really impressive. I guess TSLA is headed to $232 by Oct 1 and $446 within 3 months!

AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023

AI sets the price for Tesla (TSLA) stocks to $232.15 by October, 1, but gives bullish predictions for a higher time frame.

finbold.com

There's the number I was looking for (touches the red line again). I guessed 230, off by $2.15 (ha, my fav # again).

I figure I could get some at 240 and 235 to be safe. (Trying to beat a dead person trading, wish me luck!)

Given all the indicators + all your input (grateful thanks) + owning Tesla products + understanding some Engineering + common sense + knowing the "Shenanigan" family upstairs, there's a good chance I luck out. Not advice!

 

[Chenkers]

There's the number I was looking for (touches the red line again). I guessed 230, off by $2.15 (ha, my fav # again).

I figure I could get some at 240 and 235 to be safe. (Trying to beat a dead person trading, wish me luck!)

Given all the indicators + all your input (grateful thanks) + owning Tesla products + understanding some Engineering + common sense + knowing the "Shenanigan" family upstairs, there's a good chance I luck out. Not advice!

Around $234-237 could be where to expect a bounce. RSI should be around oversold territory by then, which usually signals a bottom. My expected timing for a bottom coincides with the expected P&D release during early Monday trading on Oct 2nd. Current price action seems to be pricing in a poor P&D result and the actual announcement could cause a strong reaction in either direction.

 

[Knightshade]

Wait a minute...shouldn't they pay a fine ON TOP of whatever profits they made by violating the law? If not, how many people at Citadel also have a side job with the SEC?

Stop me if you've heard this before-- but apparently it was just a software error!

SEC.gov | SEC Charges Citadel Securities for Violating Order Marking Requirements of Short Sale Regulations

www.sec.gov

The SEC’s order finds that the inaccurate marks resulted from a coding error in Citadel Securities’s automated trading system

 

[15Peter20]

I've recently returned from the annual sailing holiday in the Greek islands with 5 of my friends I've known since school. Three years ago I was the only Tesla owner. Now it's three out of the six. One of them owned his car repair garage all his working life, so if anyone knows the best car to buy, it's him.

We are halfway through a similar holiday in Greece and our (ICE) Yanmar decided to eat itself fatally. Oh well, 3 nights shipwrecked on Ios is hardly the stuff of nightmares.

 

[bkp_duke]

@bkp_duke and other San Diegans, Tesla has started rolling out it's VPP program in San Diego! Considering the high cost of electricity there, I'm assuming many San Diegans with Tesla Solar will be ecstatic about this:

Tesla welcomes SDG&E customers to Virtual Power Plant in San Diego

Tesla’s energy business expands as it opens the door to more customers on its Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program. San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) customers can now join the platform and make money from […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Yep, already applied.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Published 2 days ago, but didn't see it posted, apologies if it has been.

Nice article, 5 graphs on EV/ICE/oil use trends (historic & projections)

1. EV Sales are growing exponentially up S-curves
2. Forecasters keep underestimating the speed of EV growth
3. The drivers of change are getting stronger
4. Exponential growth will continue
5. The growth of EVs pushes the ICE fleet and oil demand for cars into terminal decline

The EV Revolution in 5 Charts - CleanTechnica

The exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that ICE (internal combustion engine) sales and gasoline demand have already peaked

cleantechnica.com

Full report (registration) - X-change: Cars - RMI

 

[SOULPEDL]

Published 2 days ago, but didn't see it posted, apologies if it has been.

Nice article, 5 graphs on EV/ICE/oil use trends (historic & projections)

1. EV Sales are growing exponentially up S-curves
2. Forecasters keep underestimating the speed of EV growth
3. The drivers of change are getting stronger
4. Exponential growth will continue
5. The growth of EVs pushes the ICE fleet and oil demand for cars into terminal decline

The EV Revolution in 5 Charts - CleanTechnica

The exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that ICE (internal combustion engine) sales and gasoline demand have already peaked

cleantechnica.com

Full report (registration) - X-change: Cars - RMI

How is it that "Price Parity" for ICE vs EVs isn't for several years? I thought we were there along with the $100/kWh batteries were this should occur.
Ave ICE is $48K and there are more EVs below than above for sure. Maybe the EV "Sales Sheet" we saw is including Hybrids, but the pure BEV is still up higher?

I hear this excuse a lot from folks out there who think they can't afford an EV (still). I understand the total cost of ownership is solidly in the EV camp, but sticker price is not yet at parity? Something seems off.

 

[Zero CO2]

Seems Ford kicked in enough to avoid new walk-outs, as experienced by the other 2 today. They got graded then compared publicly! I actually like this Fain guy's approach, and good for the working class. Ford basically made the others look cheap-n-greedy.

Ford - C+
Stellantis - F
General Mary - F

I wonder if this is because Ford has more cash and an actual chance at the EV market down the road? The other 2 are possibly looking forward to downsizing as the short-term solution before they jump and pull the ripcord. Mary's gonna lead... again.

repeat of 2009 grades
Ford -survived -C+
GM - bankrupt -F
Chrysler -bankrupt -F

some things don't change

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ah, so it wasn’t only my imagination. Hope v12 is actually good.

Source: Home

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Project Highland (Investor impact etc.) When deliveries?
Launch is Imminent When event?
The demise of the OEMs Biden protest
Gigafactory locations and products Project Mario