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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla needs to worry about accident rates for the company’s own self-preservation lol much less anything else
But somewhere between 2-52 weeks after whenever the question is asked.
There will be a nice bump of sales from Italy this month. There was a much-waited fund for EVs that got drained in 9 hours.
I don't know how but @piloly has daily data from Tesla in Italy so we know there was a record of more than 250 cars sold today.
We don't know the backlog and it could be really substantial (possibly thousands of cars ordered "more" than usual).
It won't change the fate of the EU sales but it's nice nonetheless.
I don't know how but @piloly has daily data from Tesla in Italy so we know there was a record of more than 250 cars sold today.
We don't know the backlog and it could be really substantial (possibly thousands of cars ordered "more" than usual).
It won't change the fate of the EU sales but it's nice nonetheless.
GhostSkater
Member
God, Elon Musk, and Morgan Freeman walk into a bar, he orders a beer
cliff harris
Member
Actually I suspect it will be a long time, and certainly not one event. I can imagine things going like this:
- Limited FSD-based robotaxi service with 'safety drivers' rolled out in a few US cities
- FSD released in China
- FSD released in Europe
- Limited FSD-based robotaxi with safety drivers in some China cities
- Expansion to a LOT of china cities
- Expansion to entire US states
- Removal of safety drivers in certain times of day/weather
- Removal of safety drivers in some countries
- Complete driver-free universal robotaxi service
- Standard no RT vehicles can now be added to the network
People expecting a 500% TSLA pop on one day will likely be disappointed. Seeing a 10-15% rise with each of the above events is very possible though?
Yep, this is basically what I expect too. I don't think there will be a singular "biggest asset increase in history" moment like Elon and a lot of bulls expect to see. Rather I believe it will be a gradual increase in value over time similar to what Cliff lists above.
The push to get the extension finished at Austin and training compute installed for HW4 could be because the Robotaxi revealed on 8/8 should use HW4.
Hence initial Robotaxi operations could be HW4 using vehicles that don't have a steering wheel, hence no safety driver. But probably with remote monitoring and control.
What we don't know is:-
- How much better will HW4 FSD be?
- When will HW4 FSD be ready for Robotaxi operations?
They could test out the model using HW3 and safety drivers as an interim step.,
IMO it is easy to understand why Elon was annoyed about the delay to the HW4 training centre, annoyed enough to fire a few people.
)I know sunwarriors noted that he's not directly a shareholder...but any shareholders complaining about Elon's compensation really feels like a G-rated depiction of why prostitutes require payment up front....because there are a lot of selfish people who don't want to pay after the fact.
In this case, Elon, the board, and the Shareholders all agreed in advance that IF and ONLY IF Elon can get Tesla's market cap to grow from $50billion to $650 billion (ie: a gain of 1200%), and IF and ONLY IF other huge company performance conditions are also met, then he can dilute other shareholders by 10%. That contract for Elon probably felt almost as secure as up-front payment...but AFTER Elon and the Tesla team achieved a whole mess of "impossible" milestones, along came Mr. 9 shares and the courts to try to stop the payment after the fact.
It doesn't matter that 10% of Tesla today is a huge number...the deal was made, 70+% of shares voted to make the deal in advance, Elon kept his end of the bargain and achieved the impossible, and then 70+% of shares voted again to confirm it after that.
And, while Mr. 9 shares apparently has a very small stake...we now know that over 70% of shares voted for Elon TWICE. So, it is a minority of shareholders, and a whole bunch of outsiders with no actual stake in the deal that are complaining.
And, I'm fairly certain that the most noise is actually being made by those non-stakeholders. So, it's like if Elon and I agreed that, if he could earn me $100, then I would pay him $10 later. He earned me my $100, and I've got it in my pocket. A whole bunch of strangers now show up and scream: "don't pay him $10! He doesn't deserve it so you don't have to!" It's like strangers with nothing ot gain or lose are just insisting I be selfish after somebody benefited me.
It doesn't matter that 10% of Tesla today is a huge number...the deal was made, 70+% of shares voted to make the deal in advance, Elon kept his end of the bargain and achieved the impossible, and then 70+% of shares voted again to confirm it after that.
And, while Mr. 9 shares apparently has a very small stake...we now know that over 70% of shares voted for Elon TWICE. So, it is a minority of shareholders, and a whole bunch of outsiders with no actual stake in the deal that are complaining.
And, I'm fairly certain that the most noise is actually being made by those non-stakeholders. So, it's like if Elon and I agreed that, if he could earn me $100, then I would pay him $10 later. He earned me my $100, and I've got it in my pocket. A whole bunch of strangers now show up and scream: "don't pay him $10! He doesn't deserve it so you don't have to!" It's like strangers with nothing ot gain or lose are just insisting I be selfish after somebody benefited me.
Hmmm...and now that I think of it, any non-shareholder complaining about Elon's pay package seems like they must be a person who would march around telling OTHER people not to pay their prostitutes after-the-fact for some reason. I can't even fathom the motivation for this sort of behavior.
Seattle
Member
He does seem to have a monotonically increasing number of children to support, baby needs a new pair of shoes.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Got an invitation to order a Cybertruck Foundation series yesterday. (not taking it 
)
I didn't place a reservation until January 2022. No way I'm near the beginning of the queue. (estimated to be around #1,300,000) So I'm guessing they're just seeing who else wants one.
)I didn't place a reservation until January 2022. No way I'm near the beginning of the queue. (estimated to be around #1,300,000) So I'm guessing they're just seeing who else wants one.
Yep, I think they are running out of takers.Got an invitation to order a Cybertruck Foundation series yesterday. (not taking it
I didn't place a reservation until January 2022. No way I'm near the beginning of the queue. (estimated to be around #1,300,000) So I'm guessing they're just seeing who else wants one.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Pretty impressive that they found 10k+ people willing to pay $100-120k, in just US, these days top of the line MX can barely fetch just over $90k
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'd be happy with a ~.00542 rise per day from here (that's ~0.542%), call it a $1 per day (which becomes an ever smaller percentage) but if we held that line it'd be steeper than the old Stephenson Indicator and get us to $685 in two years, $935 in three years and if we beat that diagonal line you can name it whatever you want.
or put another way I'd gladly take a $1 a day rise for 3 years over bumpy varying amounts. It sure make my retirement planning way easier.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
In your list, you forgot to include "licensing FSD to other manufacturers."
Every day that a non-Tesla car is on the roads and FSD can be switched on, is a day that Tesla will get a few cents or a dollar from that owner. (or via the manufacturer, whatever) Just like switching to NACS, every manufacturer will line up to license it. Tesla's is the only one that actually doesn't crash. Nobody's PR department wants to admit it today, but they all know it. Once the first licensee signs up (Ford?), the bandaid will be ripped off. It will be OK to abandon your craptastic ADAS solution and pass the costs on to the car owner. Won't take the rest long. Nice extra money coming in for Tesla.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
Something I've been pondering recently as Tesla's focus has almost seemed to shift from "Accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy" (paraphrase) which made me want to invest in them to becoming more of an AI company is how that would impact my investment decisions going forward.
Some thoughts:
-Elon has said he doesn't feel an auto company isn't worth anything without autonomous driving.
-Although still increasing EV adoption has seemed to stumble a bit of late, especially with other manufacturers scaling back plans in preference to hybrids, which we all know is a bit of a ruse to prolong the fossil fuel era. (Because it will, whether you agree or not.)
-If Tesla does achieve FSD to a level that enables full autonomy at scale and the ability to license it to other manufacturers THEY NOW CONTROL WHAT VEHICLES IT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED IN, EVEN IF NOT MANUFACTURED BY TESLA!
Talk about a way to have a huge amount of sway over the entire auto industry. Elon has stated that his vision is that all cars in the future will have this, just like seatbelts, cruise control, etc. were adopted in the past. If Tesla has available the most affordable technology at scale, I can't possibly imagine Elon ignoring the fact that they can control price so EVs get far more preferential pricing over ICE vehicles, if they (ICE) are allowed even to implement it at all.
And that is entirely in line with Tesla's mission statement.
I think that many of them made this decision because their could not make EVs which could compete with Tesla and Chinese EVs, and sell for prices with sufficient margin. Tesla cutting prices exposed their EV offerings as "bad value for money", especially after the Chinese made similar moves.
Battery prices spiked when many were intending to make more EVs, then dropped as plans were shelved, scaled back, delayed.
Lower battery prices mean they can now make and sell a hybrid for not much more than a gas car. They need to move cars at profitable margins to survive, and hybrids currently allow them to do it.
Any pivot towards FSD, AI and Robots by Tesla is partially because Elon now sees that as the biggest opportunity and the biggest mission accelerator, But slowing down EV production expansion is also an adaption to the macro environment.
I can see how Tesla can get back on track to expanding EV production volumes aggressively in future. I can't see how legacy auto will manage to pull the same rabbit out of the hat. Working FSD merely compounds this situation flor carmakers who don't licence it. They will be back to their EVs being unprofitable, or "bad value for money".
I always see this posted and just think the market is just asking for Hybrids vs. pure EVs. A lot of bulls here don't just seem to get other people's use case since people have a tendency to relate or imagine everyone else is like them. Cost is a big reason and every EV maker and used EV prices have tanked massively, Tesla included. They are pivoting for better or worst because making more EVs simply isn't going to sell more as many cars are sitting on lots. Early adopters already bought until the new EV replacement.
At these price points, with these interest rates, just because you make them doesn't mean people are going to be buying them (all brands), though the smaller new EV makers all had some growth.
This is from the Aussie market:
Tesla 'graveyard' photo shows major shift in Aussie EV market
The dramatic images show a major change trickling through the EV market – and it's a win for consumers.
I've said this before, but If US really wanted complete EV adoption, let everything from China in, $10k EVs, no tariffs, etc (I'm not for this and don't really think there is such a thing as "free" markets). Problem is still 50% of the US population doesn't like EVs for political reason to start, renters can't easily charge overnight and cost is still too high for new EVs.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Some big rises to $TSLA have occurred after "respectable" businesses (Ford, Hertz - really?) validated Tesla in some way.
Having another "respectable" carmaker align with Tesla may help the share price enormously.
As mentioned by @heltok - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable re cognitive dissonance, many doubters latch onto any nonsense to downplay Tesla.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Assuming the following quote is correct, I take it to mean that "basically zero" is still many billions (perhaps current market cap, give or take) compared to the potential of "a lot of money" which is such a huge number that most can't comprehend. :-
Edit: I suppose "basically zero" might be the case if someone gets there before Tesla.
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