Time to trade ap1...elon says yes

[lolachampcar]

I thought so as well Dave but was told 18 months. I'm looking at around $50K for the lower end of used MS so $50-60K for a M3 with tax rebate looks pretty good especially when you consider older MS means you are paying for repairs. In a lot of ways, the M3 has greater utility with AP and longer range (than first gen MS).

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Two men say they are Jesus; one of them must be lying.

Perhaps even BOTH are lying?
And, I know several Latinos named hey-Zeus - and two of them could be chatting and so neither would be lying to be called Jesus.

 

[whitex]

Extraneous means "irrelevant or unrelated to the subject being dealt with." extraneous - Google Search

Using a little bit of common sense (I know - crazy, huh!), the rave AP2 reviews and videos splashed all over social media, the TMC poll with 84% voting that AP2 had surpassed AP1, Karpathy's comments, etc. are not "extraneous" -- they are obviously relevant and lead to a pretty straightforward conclusion that when Elon answered the question "is it now time for me to trade in my AP1 car. I've been waiting?" with a yes, he meant at least that he thought that AP2 was outperforming AP1.

You got the correct definition of extraneous. However, unless Karpathy was referring to Elon's response, or Elon "yes" was referring to Karpathy, then Karpathy's comments are extraneous to Elon's "yes" reply. Just because something it true, doesn't make it relevant. The two contexts I provided you as examples are both true, didn't make them relevant and I don't think Elon knows there is an asteroid coming, even though I could pull in even more distant comments from Elon how humans need to move out beyond Earth because Earth will be destroyed at some point in the future (hopefully he meant different "some point" than FSD ).

Strange that this thread has jumped the shark. I guess it is very upsetting for some of the diehard AP2 critics to hear that most owners now think AP2 is outperforming AP1.

But with even more improvements in the pipeline, sorry but you are just going to have to get over it.

Nothing to get over. I'm not sure what in my comments to you made you think I am a "die hard critic of AP2". But since you brought this up: I could not care less whether AP2 reaches or bypasses AP1. I am with Google and MIT on Level 2 or even Level 3 being impossible to implement safely (article explaining it here). Given the recent fatal Uber accident, I wouldn't be surprised if Level 2 or even Level 3 will get outlawed in some jurisdictions. Tesla AP/EAP is still Level 2 by the way.

I have an AP1 Tesla with it enabled and after some close calls I mostly stopped using it. Also have an AP2 vehicle, but don't want EAP at all - one of the big reasons I got the Model S for my wife is safety, adding EAP is going in the opposite direction. I am a tech geek who understands how this works more than most, and found it dangerous for me to use, for my wife who is not a techie it's just an accident waiting to happen. I will tell you the same thing I told Tesla sales on the last 2 cars I ordered - I will write Tesla a $10K check to enable it when FSD works as Elon said it will - the car will take me to work while I sleep in the back seat, then the car will go park itself home, then come pick me up and drive me home. Until then, I will drive my own cars. Since I sense what you're going to bring up next, I will also tell you am I totally aware of people claiming how they use it and it allows them to relax by not having to pay full attention - they are taking their own risks by doing so (ask the guy who plowed into a firetruck not long ago), just as the guys on youtube who take even more risk by sticking an orange in the steering wheel and seatbelting a bag of potatos on the driver's seat, allowing them to "relax" in the back seat.

Now, having said all this, this is all "extraneous" to the topic of this thread which is that Elon agreed it's a good time for one specific person to trade his AP1 vehicle. That's it.

 

[whitex]

I thought so as well Dave but was told 18 months. I'm looking at around $50K for the lower end of used MS so $50-60K for a M3 with tax rebate looks pretty good especially when you consider older MS means you are paying for repairs. In a lot of ways, the M3 has greater utility with AP and longer range (than first gen MS).

Non-owners from outside of west coast are getting invitations already, even though Tesla produced less than 10,000 Model 3's so far, so as an owner you may get priority and get it much sooner than 18 months. You could put a refundable deposit down and see if you get an invite, you can always cancel.

On the other hand, in 18 months there won't be any rebates left, so if you pick up a brand new M3 from ebay at MSRP it won't cost you any more than in 18 months. You can get them under $60K (this one with 180 miles on it is listed at $59K or best offer, I've seen them as low as $55K but could be lower since I wasn't watching hard).

 

[EinSV]

You got the correct definition of extraneous. However, unless Karpathy was referring to Elon's response, or Elon "yes" was referring to Karpathy, then Karpathy's comments are extraneous to Elon's "yes" reply. Just because something it true, doesn't make it relevant. The two contexts I provided you as examples are both true, didn't make them relevant and I don't think Elon knows there is an asteroid coming, even though I could pull in even more distant comments from Elon how humans need to move out beyond Earth because Earth will be destroyed at some point in the future (hopefully he meant different "some point" than FSD ).

Nothing to get over. I'm not sure what in my comments to you made you think I am a "die hard critic of AP2". But since you brought this up: I could not care less whether AP2 reaches or bypasses AP1. I am with Google and MIT on Level 2 or even Level 3 being impossible to implement safely (article explaining it here). Given the recent fatal Uber accident, I wouldn't be surprised if Level 2 or even Level 3 will get outlawed in some jurisdictions. Tesla AP/EAP is still Level 2 by the way.

I have an AP1 Tesla with it enabled and after some close calls I mostly stopped using it. Also have an AP2 vehicle, but don't want EAP at all - one of the big reasons I got the Model S for my wife is safety, adding EAP is going in the opposite direction. I am a tech geek who understands how this works more than most, and found it dangerous for me to use, for my wife who is not a techie it's just an accident waiting to happen. I will tell you the same thing I told Tesla sales on the last 2 cars I ordered - I will write Tesla a $10K check to enable it when FSD works as Elon said it will - the car will take me to work while I sleep in the back seat, then the car will go park itself home, then come pick me up and drive me home. Until then, I will drive my own cars. Since I sense what you're going to bring up next, I will also tell you am I totally aware of people claiming how they use it and it allows them to relax by not having to pay full attention - they are taking their own risks by doing so (ask the guy who plowed into a firetruck not long ago), just as the guys on youtube who take even more risk by sticking an orange in the steering wheel and seatbelting a bag of potatos on the driver's seat, allowing them to "relax" in the back seat.

Now, having said all this, this is all "extraneous" to the topic of this thread which is that Elon agreed it's a good time for one specific person to trade his AP1 vehicle. That's it.

We can agree to disagree on "context." The "Autopilot is dangerous" argument has been beaten to death elsewhere so we will have to agree to disagree on that one as well. Cheers.

 

[P85Dave]

I thought so as well Dave but was told 18 months. I'm looking at around $50K for the lower end of used MS so $50-60K for a M3 with tax rebate looks pretty good especially when you consider older MS means you are paying for repairs. In a lot of ways, the M3 has greater utility with AP and longer range (than first gen MS).

I agree with you about the superiority of the M3 in several areas. The M3 represents a great feature package at a very compelling price.

All I know is that if the Model S interior update gets delayed beyond the availability of M3 wit hAWD, we will likely see a decline in Model S sales as some customers opt for the latest Tesla technology that's only available in the Model 3 -- and at a significantly lower price.

 

[TaoJones]

You got the correct definition of extraneous. However, unless Karpathy was referring to Elon's response, or Elon "yes" was referring to Karpathy, then Karpathy's comments are extraneous to Elon's "yes" reply. Just because something it true, doesn't make it relevant. The two contexts I provided you as examples are both true, didn't make them relevant and I don't think Elon knows there is an asteroid coming, even though I could pull in even more distant comments from Elon how humans need to move out beyond Earth because Earth will be destroyed at some point in the future (hopefully he meant different "some point" than FSD ).




Nothing to get over. I'm not sure what in my comments to you made you think I am a "die hard critic of AP2". But since you brought this up: I could not care less whether AP2 reaches or bypasses AP1. I am with Google and MIT on Level 2 or even Level 3 being impossible to implement safely (article explaining it here). Given the recent fatal Uber accident, I wouldn't be surprised if Level 2 or even Level 3 will get outlawed in some jurisdictions. Tesla AP/EAP is still Level 2 by the way.

I have an AP1 Tesla with it enabled and after some close calls I mostly stopped using it. Also have an AP2 vehicle, but don't want EAP at all - one of the big reasons I got the Model S for my wife is safety, adding EAP is going in the opposite direction. I am a tech geek who understands how this works more than most, and found it dangerous for me to use, for my wife who is not a techie it's just an accident waiting to happen. I will tell you the same thing I told Tesla sales on the last 2 cars I ordered - I will write Tesla a $10K check to enable it when FSD works as Elon said it will - the car will take me to work while I sleep in the back seat, then the car will go park itself home, then come pick me up and drive me home. Until then, I will drive my own cars. Since I sense what you're going to bring up next, I will also tell you am I totally aware of people claiming how they use it and it allows them to relax by not having to pay full attention - they are taking their own risks by doing so (ask the guy who plowed into a firetruck not long ago), just as the guys on youtube who take even more risk by sticking an orange in the steering wheel and seatbelting a bag of potatos on the driver's seat, allowing them to "relax" in the back seat.

Now, having said all this, this is all "extraneous" to the topic of this thread which is that Elon agreed it's a good time for one specific person to trade his AP1 vehicle. That's it.

This sums it up nicely. Anyone who’s driven both knows that AP1 is ahead of AP2 in so many ways. And anyone who thinks differently, when pressed, if they do even have direct experience, which is rare, quickly adds disclaimers that generally sound like, “oh yeah, except for that... and that... and that.”

I was told when I ordered my AP2 car that it has all the hardware necessary for Level 4-5 driving. Based my purchase in part upon that, the 12/2016 video, and the comments of Elon and others. Imagine my surprise when AP2 ended up worse than my AP1 car and continues to be so to this day.

Now the consensus is that only with new hardware will it possibly achieve some portion of FSD. I actually viewed that as a positive because it meant Tesla would probably develop their own SoC. And so they are. After all, someday, AP2.5 or AP3 will surpass AP1.

How will we know?

In part, bikes will once again show up as bikes and large trucks as large trucks in the IC. Well, except by then we probably won’t have an IC but the point remains.

In part, TACC and AS won’t cause your car to speed due to bad AP2 speed limit data and AP2.5 or AP3 may actually recognize, correctly read, and react to actual speed limit signs. With corrected database backup for an even better experience than either AP1 or AP2 can possibly deliver today.

In brief, just because AP2 follows a car down the interstate around a curve and doesn’t hit it does not mean it’s better than AP1. It just means it’s getting better and nobody disputes that.

Except of course when parts of the firmware that deliver those AP advances regress. How ‘bout those MCU reboots while driving? .

Coming full circle, interpreting a one-word Elon answer as in any way that AP2 is better is irresponsible at best. Personally, I find it to be intellectually dishonest and a disservice to owners new and extant.

But that’s why it’s a free country where all opinions have value. Some as gold, some as compost, and some in equal parts.

 

[EinSV]

This sums it up nicely. Anyone who’s driven both knows that AP1 is ahead of AP2 in so many ways. <Snip>

That’s totally false. Many members with experience with both AP1 and AP2 have said that AP2 is now superior to AP1, including some who in the past have been vocal critics of AP2. I trust their opinions far more than someone like yourself who appears to suffer from a severe case of confirmation bias.

There are some forum members familiar with both who still believe AP1 gets the nod. I respect their opinions even though it is not the conclusion I would draw from reviewing many videos of AP2 performance on roads that I am confident my AP1 car could not handle.

There is a lot of experience on this forum. To dismiss everyone’s opinion but your own and those who agree with you — who together make up a small minority according to the recent TMC poll — as unreasonable or “compost” is a bit disingenuous.

“irresponsible at best.”
“intellectually dishonest”
“a disservice to owners new and extant”
“But that’s why it’s a free country where all opinions have value. Some as gold, some as compost ....”

Seriously? If you disagree with someone’s opinion feel free to state your own view — the constant personal attacks get old.

And leaving your own opinions of AP2 aside, do you really think Elon doesn’t believe AP2 is performing better than AP1? I sure think he does, and my interpretation is that is one thing he was trying to convey by the tweet.

 

[TaoJones]

That’s totally false. Many members with experience with both AP1 and AP2 have said that AP2 is now superior to AP1, including some who in the past have been vocal critics of AP2. I trust their opinions far more than someone like yourself who appears to suffer from a severe case of confirmation bias.

There are some forum members familiar with both who still believe AP1 gets the nod. I respect their opinions even though it is not the conclusion I would draw from reviewing many videos of AP2 performance on roads that I am confident my AP1 car could not handle.

There is a lot of experience on this forum. To dismiss everyone’s opinion but your own and those who agree with you — who together make up a small minority according to the recent TMC poll — as unreasonable or “compost” is a bit disingenuous.



Seriously? If you disagree with someone’s opinion feel free to state your own view — the constant personal attacks get old.

And leaving your own opinions of AP2 aside, do you really think Elon doesn’t believe AP2 is performing better than AP1? I sure think he does.

Seriously? Ok. I reject your tired refrain/mischaracterizations of “constant personal attacks” whenever someone a) doesn’t share your view, b) when multiple people call your extrapolations what they are, and c) you decide to lash out instead (as you’ve now done twice) which is only more extraneous noise. See those definitions above.

In short, get over yourself and stick to the topic - It’s your *position* that I’ve taken exception with and if you can’t handle that, then that’s just too bad.

Ironically, the only thing that separates the crux of your position and mine is time. Which means in the end, WE AGREE. You believe AP2 is better than AP1 now despite it being unclear whether you’ve personally experienced either. No matter - academic discussions are important and again, it’s a free country. I believe AP# (AP2.5, 3, whatever AP2 will end up being) will ABSOLUTELY be better than AP1 *in the future*. Just not now - and I base that upon close to 100,000 miles of driving both AP1 & AP2 over the past ~3.5 years and as recently as 20 minutes ago. Not upon polls, articles, quarterly calls, or one-word tweets - as entertaining as all of those are.

If you disagree with that synopsis, again, that’s fine, but we will simply have to agree to disagree.

 

[fasteddie7]

Side by side make your own decision video. This was 6.1 and I’m doing one on 10.4 now. I simply get more disengagement with ap2 but it’s close. After 10.4 they both improved but still ap1 has fewer disengagements.

 

[whitex]

That’s totally false. Many members with experience with both AP1 and AP2 have said that AP2 is now superior to AP1, including some who in the past have been vocal critics of AP2. I trust their opinions far more than someone like yourself who appears to suffer from a severe case of confirmation bias.

There are some forum members familiar with both who still believe AP1 gets the nod. I respect their opinions even though it is not the conclusion I would draw from reviewing many videos of AP2 performance on roads that I am confident my AP1 car could not handle.

There is a lot of experience on this forum. To dismiss everyone’s opinion but your own and those who agree with you — who together make up a small minority according to the recent TMC poll — as unreasonable or “compost” is a bit disingenuous.



Seriously? If you disagree with someone’s opinion feel free to state your own view — the constant personal attacks get old.

And leaving your own opinions of AP2 aside, do you really think Elon doesn’t believe AP2 is performing better than AP1? I sure think he does, and my interpretation is that is one thing he was trying to convey by the tweet.

Ok, even though personally I don't care, and it's irrelevant to the Elon's tweet that started this thread, let's look at the simple fact that AP2 doesn't have awareness of adjacent lanes as AP1 does, evidenced simply by the fact that AP1 shows cars in adjacent lanes and AP2 does not. This difference alone shows that that AP2 is not on feature parity with AP1. Now of course you can argue that AP2 not being aware of adjacent lanes makes it superior, or simply such function is purely an unnecessary frill for autonomous cars, but I'm not sure you'll find many people to agree with you on that.

 

[GaryW]

Side by side make your own decision video. This was 6.1 and I’m doing one on 10.4 now. I simply get more disengagement with ap2 but it’s close. After 10.4 they both improved but still ap1 has fewer disengagements.

Great video!

I’m really looking forward to seeing the 10.4 video.

Thanks for putting these together.

 

[TaoJones]

Ok, even though personally I don't care, and it's irrelevant to the Elon's tweet that started this thread, let's look at the simple fact that AP2 doesn't have awareness of adjacent lanes as AP1 does, evidenced simply by the fact that AP1 shows cars in adjacent lanes and AP2 does not. This difference alone shows that that AP2 is not on feature parity with AP1. Now of course you can argue that AP2 not being aware of adjacent lanes makes it superior, or simply such function is purely an unnecessary frill for autonomous cars, but I'm not sure you'll find many people to agree with you on that.

While there’s no question that AP1 and AP2 are not yet at parity overall, something in the last update (or 2, possibly but for sure in the last one) got my attention concerning adjacent vehicles (with AP2).

Whether it’s part of what Elon was thinking with his one-word tweet is impossible to say, but that aside, have you noticed more... responsiveness or a larger radius perhaps for the sensor “balloons” lately?

This may account wholly or in part for what @Fasteddie and I both have observed concerning more flashing “Take over immediately” episodes.

I can’t say yet concerning the phantom braking but there have been episodes of that due to side traffic - mostly nothing ahead other than elevation changes - and no overpasses either. The first time *that* happened on an interstate w/overpass was no picnic for either us or the big truck behind us either. The driver of which is probably shaking his fist at Tesla drivers to this day.

 

[Mark Z]

AP2 vehicles now move toward the center of empty space when the right lane line widens far out. It is not something I would do when driving as tracking the left lane line would be more normal. I expect this to be corrected in the future.

On the positive side, the latest AP2 release drives perfectly on the CA 57 North right lane through Fullerton. No more steering into the off ramps!

 

[EinSV]

Seriously? Ok. I reject your tired refrain/mischaracterizations of “constant personal attacks” whenever someone a) doesn’t share your view, b) when multiple people call your extrapolations what they are, and c) you decide to lash out instead (as you’ve now done twice) which is only more extraneous noise. See those definitions above.

In short, get over yourself and stick to the topic - It’s your *position* that I’ve taken exception with and if you can’t handle that, then that’s just too bad.

Ironically, the only thing that separates the crux of your position and mine is time. Which means in the end, WE AGREE. You believe AP2 is better than AP1 now despite it being unclear whether you’ve personally experienced either. No matter - academic discussions are important and again, it’s a free country. I believe AP# (AP2.5, 3, whatever AP2 will end up being) will ABSOLUTELY be better than AP1 *in the future*. Just not now - and I base that upon close to 100,000 miles of driving both AP1 & AP2 over the past ~3.5 years and as recently as 20 minutes ago. Not upon polls, articles, quarterly calls, or one-word tweets - as entertaining as all of those are.

If you disagree with that synopsis, again, that’s fine, but we will simply have to agree to disagree.

Not sure why you ignore or dismiss the opinions of the 84% of forum members who voted in the recent poll that AP2 has surpassed AP1, including many who have extensive experience with both AP1 and AP2. Whatever subjective reasons you have for believing AP1 is superior are just that, subjective. From my own extensive experience using my AP1 car on two-lane roads I don’t believe it can hold a candle to AP2’s current lane keeping in tight curves and complex situations that have been shown in dozens of videos, although AP1 also keeps getting better over time which is cool.

This is a pointless discussion so I am out. Bye again.

 

[lolachampcar]

fasteddie
Would you please stop injecting facts into a passionate discussion?????

 

[fasteddie7]

fasteddie
Would you please stop injecting facts into a passionate discussion?????

My bad.

 

[whitex]

The "Autopilot is dangerous" argument has been beaten to death elsewhere so we will have to agree to disagree on that one as well.

To see how ignoring the "hold the wheel" nag for 5 seconds can end, see Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

This sadly illustrates Google's point why Level 2 can never be safely implemented.

 

[EinSV]

To see how ignoring the "hold the wheel" nag for 5 seconds can end, see Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

This sadly illustrates Google's point why Level 2 can never be safely implemented.

The NHTSA disagrees with you. NHTSA’s full final investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

 

[whitex]

The NHTSA disagrees with you. NHTSA’s full final investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

Not after this accident. The conclusion you stated was after the old crash where the car didn't see a truck crossing the road and the driver had a lot more time than 5 seconds to react. Since then Tesla implemented many more nags. This one shows the real danger, ignore your first nag and you can be dead. Maybe it will take another one where the AP smashed into the same kind of barrier without a nag just prior before people realize, hey, you have to watch it as if you were letting a toddler on your lap drive - which is more attention than just driving it yourself.