Tracking Model Y orders

[AdVanced]

the one thing that just dawned on me about the analysis above is the 'dribbling out' part. one of the announcements made last week is that the y is already in production and they are building inventory to start the deliveries. i have a feeling it depends a lot on what was ordered as far as colors, wheels, etc. they did say performance versions first, so i know i'm NOT on that list. other than that they changed my wheels twice but i'm thinking that's also at least in part about moving some units.

Yea, that is the one thing that i'm still scratching my head on. The CARB cert and EPA ratings are only for the performance version. I've though about posting to see what happened with the 3 (were they all at once or just the performance first?) Granted, they are likely already in the process and once they have it there's no issues with delivering right away.

Awesome analysis. Wish I had read this before I posted the following on another thread.

In thinking through your numbers now, after reading your numbers above, it makes me more hopeful that they can burn through the Y pre orders by end of year. I'm betting they can get close to 3 production numbers for the Y this year. And if demand is below 3, makes me feel better. Would appreciate your thoughts.

I'm very hopeful as well! My car is in all right condition. 10 years old though and i'm definitely ready for an upgrade. I'm truly under the impression that AWD preorders will start rolling out in the late April -> Mid-May timeframe. They also improved production methods on the Y and may be able to make them faster than ~7K a week (Model 3 production rate)!

 

[Aarons12]

Yea, that is the one thing that i'm still scratching my head on. The CARB cert and EPA ratings are only for the performance version. I've though about posting to see what happened with the 3 (were they all at once or just the performance first?) Granted, they are likely already in the process and once they have it there's no issues with delivering right away.
!

a couple of articles i read on car sites (meaning not here or other places where knowledgeable people congregate) seemed to say that the CARB certification applied to both versions. so not sure about that either, though as you say even if not correct, there is still plenty of time for that.

 

[Ghanziang]

I ordered in September, and my number is higher than yours after removing the first 4 digits after the RN (Reservation Number). So pretty sure they are not a numerical order. Model 3, they did not reflect the order in which the reservations were placed.

 

[AdVanced]

Yeah I heard early on that the reservation numbers are all over the board. However one good thing with model y orders is that they haven't released the number yet. For both the model 3 and the Cyber truck they touted how many reservations they had. Since they haven't done that with the Y oh, I'm thinking that there's not as many as others may think. I'm under the impression that if they had a lot of pre-orders, they would have released the number to set expectations and most importantly for investor relations.

Edit: although, it is agonizing not knowing what place in line you are or how many are out there

 

[Aarons12]

Really appreciate all the info in the above posts regarding ordering and delivery estimates. I ordered my Model Y Performance on January 30th, 2020. I also ordered the Cybertruck when it was first introduced and realize it might be a couple years or more before I receive it. What I noticed is that my order numbers for the Cybertruck as well as the Model Y consists of 2 letters followed by 9 numerical digits. Both orders have the same 2 letters and 4 numerical digits at the beginning of the order, so these I assume must be related to my location or something else. The last 5 numerical digits for may Model Y order are 88335. I suspect that means I have that many orders in front of me, but that is just a guess. On the Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker one person placed their order number in the comments as Order Number RN109466705. That order was placed on Sept 22, 2019. I suspect that means that order is #66705 in line. That makes sense in that my order is around 22000 after his. If others can compare their order number we may be able to determine if that part of the order number is actually numerical in sequence of the date ordered. My guess is that earlier orders will show a lower number. Hope others can share their order info to see if this works. Knowing where we are in line will be helpful to determine when we might actually receive our order. Thanks for any follow up......Jim

my last numbers are 83735 and i ordered about a week before you so although i don't know if the whole line of thought is valid, mine falls in line with your theory.

 

[AdVanced]

my last numbers are 83735 and i ordered about a week before you so although i don't know if the whole line of thought is valid, mine falls in line with your theory.

I ordered two days before you a(Jan 22) and have 85936. Perhaps there is some merit to this.

 

[Aarons12]

@AdVanced not really sure. your number is higher even though you were earlier. it might be a partial indicator, i'm sure they don't pull random numbers out of a hat. but i also think they are grouped to some extent. we know the performance will be first. then they made the pearl white the 'base' color sometime last year (i'm relatively new) and it happened to be what i went with so that was fine. since then my wheels have been changed twice by them, not me, and the price is up a little but i'm just staying in line... i like to hope that the LR, AWD, no 3rd seat, pearl white will be early. but only elon, supreme lord of tesla, knows for sure

 

[leodoggie]

Ordered my Y last week, there are roughly 250,000 orders on the books, should get the car in six months.

 

[AdVanced]

Ordered my Y last week, there are roughly 250,000 orders on the books, should get the car in six months.

Where are you getting your 250000 number from?

 

[xtnvieira]

I ordered two days before you a(Jan 22) and have 85936. Perhaps there is some merit to this.

My order was in Aug. and my RN is in the 91k’s so I wouldn’t put much stock in the idea that reservations are sequential.

 

[leodoggie]

Where are you getting your 250000 number from?

The 250,000 number comes directly from the Tesla sales department, it is a very credible figure.

 

[Bikeman]

The 250,000 number comes directly from the Tesla sales department, it is a very credible figure.

I hope you get it within that time frame. Realistically, while they might have orders of 250K backed up total, yours and most others are going to be built in a queue of a specific build and config type. P's first, and the most expensive variants of the dual motor models thereafter. Then all the rest kinda mixed up together somehow following those $$$ batches. Just Tesla being Tesla.

Production schedule is something only Tesla knows about, and could be reconfig'd at any time depending on, well, Tesla. Could be that the configuration you ordered -- wheels, and color of your order correspond with a 6 mos. out projection and I hope they're correct. I hope they didn't really meant that 250,000 units would be built prior to yours in the next 6 months. That would be mostly impossible (9,000+ unit builds per week beginning right now).

 

[leodoggie]

I hope you get it within that time frame. Realistically, while they might have orders of 250K backed up total, yours and most others are going to be built in a queue of a specific build and config type. P's first, and the most expensive variants of the dual motor models thereafter. Then all the rest kinda mixed up together somehow following those $$$ batches. Just Tesla being Tesla.

Production schedule is something only Tesla knows about, and could be reconfig'd at any time depending on, well, Tesla. Could be that the configuration you ordered -- wheels, and color of your order correspond with a 6 mos. out projection and I hope they're correct. I hope they didn't really meant that 250,000 units would be built prior to yours in the next 6 months. That would be mostly impossible (9,000+ unit builds per week beginning right now).

The six months estimate is based on my model y configuration, long range dual motor. So the person I talked to took into consideration that many of the orders were for the lowest priced rear wheel drive version which they are probably not going to make until next year. Just to clarify, the person I talked to at Tesla is not just some random sales guy at one of their stores. This person has a position that gives them access to sales data and these numbers are not classified, but I put a lot of credence to the information.

 

[jleonar1]

My order was in Aug. and my RN is in the 91k’s so I wouldn’t put much stock in the idea that reservations are sequential.

Mine was November
19944 not making any sense.

 

[xtnvieira]

Mine was November
19944 not making any sense.

It doesn’t make sense to us as customers but I’m sure there’s a method to Tesla’s madness. This just goes to show we should expect to go by sequential RN numbers as a delivery indicator.

 

[Aarons12]

It doesn’t make sense to us as customers but I’m sure there’s a method to Tesla’s madness. This just goes to show we should expect to go by sequential RN numbers as a delivery indicator.

follow the money, it's all calculated to get some vehicles on the road fast. that's their best advertising.

 

[chengka]

My order was in Aug. and my RN is in the 91k’s so I wouldn’t put much stock in the idea that reservations are sequential.

Agreed. I ordered Nov24 and the last 5 digits are 49929.

 

[SaveOurPlanet]

As we are all speculating here, I think the pre-order number is simply a primary key index and means nothing. If Tesla were to follow the M3 fashion, I think it will be production priority (Performance first then D), current owner, geographical then chronological. I am a current owner (MS and M3) and placed my D right after the online order was open, I suspect I would not get mine till Sept the earliest.

 

[cantchoosename]

I don’t think the numbers mean anything. Mine are 43937 and I ordered on the first day.

 

[Ripcord]

I don’t think the numbers mean anything. Mine are 43937 and I ordered on the first day.

Probably doesn’t mean anything but I ordered (LR AWD) the morning after the release and my number is less than 200 off yours.