Tracking Model Y orders

[5513MKII]

I ordered the first day and was 45175.

If it matters, I also changed the color in August right after the price change and my number stayed the same, so either that didn't bump me back in line, or the numbers don't mean anything.

 

[mjopling]

Well, I did some math to *attempt* estimating based on response interest. Treating it as a sample size, we can compare to the Model 3 tracking sheet. *Disclaimer: I only did approximates*
- The Model 3 tracking sheet documented 5,600 Model 3 orders between Q2 2018 and now. Tesla delivered approximately 455,000 Model three vehicles according to their press releases. 5600/455000 = 1.2% of orders

*It's good and bad that this didn't include the influx of original pre-orders but the Model 3 was an explosion. I'm under the impression that the Y did not get as much attention as the 3 since they are very similar, although many are trading up their 3 for a Y. Still something to consider. The Model 3 had around 325,000 pre-orders at launch (cheaper product and only $100 to pre-order instead of $2500 initially)

Edit: The sheet indicates configuration dates starting in March 2018. I do not recall if you could configure the model 3 before that time and am not sure how many on the sheet would have been pre-orders.

- taking the same 1.2% sample size and applying that to the 206 tracked orders = approximately 16,000. Granted, that doesn't factor that there would definitely be an initial influx for preorders and perhaps not many people are aware of the survey although i've posted it to Reddit too. That being said, i'd probably guess around double that at 32,000 pre-orders. The 100,000 number going around was from someones chat with a Tesla CR. I'd find it unlikely that the front line staff would know.

This could also be completely off, is just speculation, and at the end of the day ...... I really want my new car ; ;

Also - Approximate Model 3 delivery numbers since 2018 if anyone is interested:
2018 - 137,000 (Q2-4)
Q1 - 9,000
Q2 - 18,000
Q3 - 56,000
Q4 - 63,000
Total: 146,000

2019 (Q1-4)
Q1 - 50,000
Q2 - 78,000
Q3 - 97,000
Q4 - 93,000
Total: 318,000

 

[mjopling]

Anyone have suggestions on how to curtail obsessing over this car and likely long wait for delivery? Its in my head way too much...embarasing and saps productivity.

 

[AdVanced]

Anyone have suggestions on how to curtail obsessing over this car and likely long wait for delivery? Its in my head way too much...embarasing and saps productivity.

Haha! I feel you man. I set a personal goal to just not talk about it. I still read up on it when I take a break and after work. I'm just happy one of my dreams is finally coming true. Sucks we have to wait but that will make getting all the more exciting.

 

[Aarons12]

Anyone have suggestions on how to curtail obsessing over this car and likely long wait for delivery? Its in my head way too much...embarasing and saps productivity.

in my case, the fact that samsung had their unpacked event and i can order my galaxy s20 ultra was an expensive but helpful diversion. but as you can see, i'm still reading these posts LOL

 

[djbrown21]

I ordered mine on Jan 23 and my order number is 87745. It does seem to fall in line to what other people are getting.

 

[Hovscorpion1]

Given that the Y shares a majority of the Model 3, I don’t think it will take long for Tesla to reach 5k a week production. By September, I guess Tesla should have covered roughly 75% of preorders.

 

[Falcons023]

I hope you are right. Finishing up all pre-orders by holidays is very much possible.

 

[xtnvieira]

I ordered mine on Jan 23 and my order number is 87745. It does seem to fall in line to what other people are getting.

Not really. Mine was ordered in August and I have a number in the 91k’s.

 

[kc10kevin]

Given that the Y shares a majority of the Model 3, I don’t think it will take long for Tesla to reach 5k a week production. By September, I guess Tesla should have covered roughly 75% of preorders.

Gonna have to disagree with you on the numbers. You can flame me this September if I'm wrong, but they will be lucky to get up to 1000/week by the middle of summer. 5000/week, maybe early next year. People are going to be very disappointed with this roll out I suspect.

Folks are already saying that if they order now, they will get their car in April or May (EVEN MARCH). Delusional. LIMITED deliveries STARTING in March per EM.

People need to temper their expectations, otherwise they will be sorely disappointed. I ordered in June of last year. Not expecting anything until late fall or early next year.

 

[SoRandom]

I ordered mine in May. I’m good with the wait as long as it’s here before my lease is up May 2021.

 

[Ashkap30]

Gonna have to disagree with you on the numbers. You can flame me this September if I'm wrong, but they will be lucky to get up to 1000/week by the middle of summer. 5000/week, maybe early next year. People are going to be very disappointed with this roll out I suspect.

Folks are already saying that if they order now, they will get their car in April or May (EVEN MARCH). Delusional. LIMITED deliveries STARTING in March per EM.

People need to temper their expectations, otherwise they will be sorely disappointed. I ordered in June of last year. Not expecting anything until late fall or early next year.

Ok so I didn’t know who to respond to. So I ordered mine two days ago in the Sunnyvale Location. (For those that don’t know it’s less then an hr away from Fremont). So in the Bay Area. When I ordered I asked the rep how many orders were in front of me. (She worked at delivery before this) she said there was 25k ordered ahead of me. So I might be getting it July if not end of this year

 

[AdVanced]

Ok so I didn’t know who to respond to. So I ordered mine two days ago in the Sunnyvale Location. (For those that don’t know it’s less then an hr away from Fremont). So in the Bay Area. When I ordered I asked the rep how many orders were in front of me. (She worked at delivery before this) she said there was 25k ordered ahead of me. So I might be getting it July if not end of this year

Did you order the performance or the LR AWD??

 

[wasloan]

Really appreciate all the info in the above posts regarding ordering and delivery estimates. I ordered my Model Y Performance on January 30th, 2020. I also ordered the Cybertruck when it was first introduced and realize it might be a couple years or more before I receive it. What I noticed is that my order numbers for the Cybertruck as well as the Model Y consists of 2 letters followed by 9 numerical digits. Both orders have the same 2 letters and 4 numerical digits at the beginning of the order, so these I assume must be related to my location or something else. The last 5 numerical digits for may Model Y order are 88335. I suspect that means I have that many orders in front of me, but that is just a guess. On the Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker one person placed their order number in the comments as Order Number RN109466705. That order was placed on Sept 22, 2019. I suspect that means that order is #66705 in line. That makes sense in that my order is around 22000 after his. If others can compare their order number we may be able to determine if that part of the order number is actually numerical in sequence of the date ordered. My guess is that earlier orders will show a lower number. Hope others can share their order info to see if this works. Knowing where we are in line will be helpful to determine when we might actually receive our order. Thanks for any follow up......Jim

I ordered 14-Feb-20 and my last 5 digits are 71357 so I'm not sure if it's purely numeric order...for what that's worth. I think there are some threads on the pattern for Model 3, am going to try to dig them up...

 

[pdqgolf]

Don't think reservation numbers mean anything. Based on about 300 reservations in the tracking spreadsheet and assuming 1% have added their info I think there are 30k orders and most reservations will be met by end of year. thoughts?

 

[jimmym1981]

Realistically we will start to find out in March a better idea and even probably April before a firm grasp on deliveries. Elon stated they are starting in March, but really, how many will get delivered and which part of March will they start?

Before then, I think we need to look at it in Performance vs AWD orders. I just wonder which ones will truly fill first with the way Elon put it of "top trim." If you ordered a Performance without the options, does this mean you won't get yours before the fully loaded ones? Will they sneak some AWD orders in there if there is a slight shortage of rims for the Performance? I think there are too many unknown questions as of now.

I would say that the 25-30k pre-orders before this year probably sounds right. In that case, anyone that ordered a Performance should definitely get theirs by fall. I haven't seen too many orders for Performance between all of the forums here, Tesla and Reddit. Call it optimistic, but we ordered back in September and our lease is up July 1st. I'm already wondering if I might have to defer my P till then because I just cannot fathom they have THAT many orders of the Performance trim to deliver first. After that its all AWD which is the only other option.

 

[TonyJames]

I was a day one order (Performance+, black/white interior 5 seat, FSD) and I was contacted by my NJ Tesla dealer yesterday with this seemingly spammy message. Is this customary to get an email like this? Not sure why they are trying to get me to demo a different car than the one they just congratulated me on.....also they don't seem to have the order prices lined up with the email since my P+ version will be more than $55k and thus ineligible for the tax rebate.

==============================

Hi XXXX, this is XXXX from Tesla.



Congrats on your recent Model Y reservation!

I have some super exciting news that I wanted to pass along! The New Jersey electric car rebate signed by Gov. Murphy is in full effect. As of Jan. 17th 2020, any Tesla $55K or less ordered as of Jan. 17, 2020 will be eligible for the $5,000 rebate.



I would love to invite you to our Garden State Plaza location for a Demo Drive in our Model X, S or 3 or to discover how easy it is to save money with Tesla solar.

What day of the week typically works best for you?

================================

 

[kc10kevin]

I was a day one order (Performance+, black/white interior 5 seat, FSD) and I was contacted by my NJ Tesla dealer yesterday with this seemingly spammy message. Is this customary to get an email like this? Not sure why they are trying to get me to demo a different car than the one they just congratulated me on.....also they don't seem to have the order prices lined up with the email since my P+ version will be more than $55k and thus ineligible for the tax rebate.

==============================

Hi XXXX, this is XXXX from Tesla.



Congrats on your recent Model Y reservation!

I have some super exciting news that I wanted to pass along! The New Jersey electric car rebate signed by Gov. Murphy is in full effect. As of Jan. 17th 2020, any Tesla $55K or less ordered as of Jan. 17, 2020 will be eligible for the $5,000 rebate.



I would love to invite you to our Garden State Plaza location for a Demo Drive in our Model X, S or 3 or to discover how easy it is to save money with Tesla solar.

What day of the week typically works best for you?

================================

Yep. Just a sales pitch. Lots of folks get these emails from Tesla trying to sell products; especially solar. Even cold calls. Got one last month inviting me to an event.

 

[pt19713]

I was a day one order (Performance+, black/white interior 5 seat, FSD) and I was contacted by my NJ Tesla dealer yesterday with this seemingly spammy message. Is this customary to get an email like this? Not sure why they are trying to get me to demo a different car than the one they just congratulated me on.....also they don't seem to have the order prices lined up with the email since my P+ version will be more than $55k and thus ineligible for the tax rebate.

I think it's part of their standard procedure once they have your email to try and pitch you on their solar products.
After I put in my Model Y reservation, they tried to sell me solar panels even though I already have Tesla solar panels on my roof. After that, they tried to pitch me on the Tesla Powerwall 2, which I don't have interest for because I'm already generating over 3 megawatts of excess energy each year due to our low energy consumption each month.

 

[Aarons12]

I think it's part of their standard procedure once they have your email to try and pitch you on their solar products.
After I put in my Model Y reservation, they tried to sell me solar panels even though I already have Tesla solar panels on my roof. After that, they tried to pitch me on the Tesla Powerwall 2, which I don't have interest for because I'm already generating over 3 megawatts of excess energy each year due to our low energy consumption each month.

we're coastal and i would like to have powerwalls to back up our solar (can't leave it on during power outage as it is now). but they are not interested in only selling powerwalls right now, they want you to buy more solar and our roof is full LOL