TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

Tesla curiously lower than Nasdaq by a 1.75%. So, wondering what will happen if Nasdaq loses the gains ?

BTW, last 7 trading sessions SP has been above 350.

Following NASDAQ at the end down. Red with 2 minutes left.

ps : Ends at 366.60 (down 0.04%). Nasdaq up 0.95%.

Why have all this drama, though out the day if its going to end at the same place ?

This price action is driving me nuts. I’m gonna invest in something wild, like CD’s

Damn, this closing dip (CD?) is pissing me off like a fare thee well...!

Quite normal that we trade sideways at that level and be prepared that we also can go down a bid before we go up again.

If you take a step back and look at the chart it looks very positive and bullish. Bouncing at the upper Bollinger Band right now so no surprise there is some resistance. Also at about $372 is another resistance confirmed by prior highs. Not unusual though. With low volume there are always some shorts taking advantage too in particular at the end of the day. If macros are weak that adds to downwards pressure.

To break through the levels up and above ATH we may need some really good numbers coming out first but its also possible that in the next 2-3 weeks the stock bounces between $350 and $387.

 

[anthonyj]

Traded like it’s anticipating news, kind of like a day before an earnings call. Fully expect a huge green or red candle Thursday or Friday. I’m thinking green, which is what the technicals show me... Someone is scooping up cheap options?

 

[Lessmog]

Doubt he could afford a decent coal these days. Maybe a sock full of lignite

Oh by the way, what is the price of coke in Manhattan these days before Xmas? The guy looked kind of burnt out there in his bathroom office.

 

[avoigt]

Those guys lost some serious money! And thats just since 2016....

3h3 hours ago
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Vladimir Grinshpun

Sorry, we don't have data going back that far, just going back to 2016. Since 2016, $TSLA shorts are down $6.73 billion in mark-to-market losses, which includes $841 million of stock borrow financing expenses.

Vladimir Grinshpun‏ @VGrinshpun
Replying to @ihors3
Ihor, is there any way to know what are the cumulative short seller losses on $TSLA since its IPO?
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[BornToFly]

Question about historical TSLA gains. I think we could be on the cusp of a breakout. Looking back to November 2016 to June 2017 when the stock price basically doubled, what was the average weekly % gain? I have no intention of selling my shares before the SP hits 1,000. However, I want to sell covered calls. If I sell weeklies 10% above the current stock price, am I safe? I obviously would need to be able to roll to the following week to avoid having my shares called away if there is a sudden climb, so how many weeks in a row (if ever) did the stock climb 10% or greater in consecutive weeks? Anyone know?

Edit: I think I answered my own question. See a few posts down.

 

[Dreadnought]

I’ve seen this type of price action last month. Stock exploded after.

In absence of an "agree" button have to do it this way. There are about 14 trading days left until we get to see the Q4 production numbers. If anything, I can only see the climb accelerating from there. According to Ihor, short interest went slightly up recently but that didn't create a noticeable dent. The market just sucked up the additional shares. I for my part am expecting some more dry powder to become available in the next couple of days and intend to make use of it before end of the year at 360 if possible and 370 if need be.
It may still be possible to acquire more shares in January at the current level but I rather buy too early and miss a temporary dip into November territory than wait for the occasion that doesn't materialize and miss the rocket launch. Risk = damage * probability. While I consider a breakout before next ER not very likely, the lost opportunity could be significant. We need less than 10% to breach ATH. After that, we'll enter uncharted territory. All it then takes is another Left who covers and broadcasts his bullish views on CNBC to kick off a chain reaction.
I haven't been long enough in TSLA to look back at the good old $20 times but I can clearly see myself looking back at the good old times when you could get a share at a bargain 370.

Edit: (Not a disclaimer) Not an advice. Seriously considering to eat my toothbrush if we're not beyond 450 by March.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Question about historical TSLA gains. I think we could be on the cusp of a breakout. Looking back to November 2016 to June 2017 when the stock price basically doubled, what was the average weekly % gain? I have no intention of selling my shares before the SP hits 1,000. However, I want to sell covered calls. If I sell weeklies 10% above the current stock price, am I safe? I obviously would need to be able to roll to the following week to avoid having my shares called away if there is a sudden climb, so how many weeks in a row (if ever) did the stock climb 10% or greater in consecutive weeks? Anyone know?

I will look into this and see if I can get you an answer. I will say that @Menifeer is an excellent resource on the topic - maybe he can chime in. You could also hedge your position and take a small portion of the credit you get from selling weeklies and put it towards some deep OTM options on the cheap.

 

[KarenRei]

First Tesla dual-connectorstation with CCS: Looks like an ordinary V1 CCS (aka 200A max current). If so, that's going to suck for Model 3s. Better get V3 out soon :Þ

Also, while I've said it before, it bears repeating: Tesla is way better at designing connectors than everyone else :Þ What a stupid connector...

 

[Curt Renz]

Are there any explanations for consistent dips at the end of the day aside from intentional manipulation?...

On days when trading volume is light, the percentage of activity attributable to day traders increases. Patterned day traders are allowed to borrow especially heavily on margin on condition that they close their positions by the end of the day. If the day traders have been net long throughout the day, their selling during the final minutes can result in a quite noticeable fade.

 

[Nocturnal]

First Tesla dual-connectorstation with CCS: Looks like V1 CCS (aka 200A max current). That's going to suck for Model 3s. Better get V3 out soon :Þ





Also, while I've said it before, it bears repeating: Tesla is way better at designing connectors than everyone else :Þ What a stupid connector...

I assumed that 3s would still be able to use the Tesla connector. That kinda sucks.

 

[BornToFly]

I will look into this and see if I can get you an answer. I will say that @Menifeer is an excellent resource on the topic - maybe he can chime in. You could also hedge your position and take a small portion of the credit you get from selling weeklies and put it towards some deep OTM options on the cheap.

I don't know how accurate historic Fidelity graphs are. I think I answered my own question. It looks like it never climbed more than 10% average per week, despite doubling in 6 months. I did the weeks where it climbed the most (Fridays in the left column, closing SP on the right). Selling weeklies 10% above the current price should be a pretty safe strategy....

P.S. - I would avoid the weeks that quarterly numbers and earnings reports are released....

P.P.S. - I did find one week in October when it climbed more than 10% when it climbed off the 260. However, there would have been recovery with a roll after that.

P.P.P.S. - Another week 6/6/18 to 6/13/18 it climbed more than 10%, but one roll would have been enough again.

 

[AWDtsla]

Price action looks still looks like a big 0 to me since the big guys started trading on news of the bond conversion. If we look just at 12/10 it only seemed like maybe ~100-200k trades out of ~6.6m volume were individual trades and not correlated to SPX. Seems like no matter what we will close around 360-365. I'd like to be wrong but we're approaching 2 weeks of this now.

 

[KarenRei]

I assumed that 3s would still be able to use the Tesla connector. That kinda sucks.

It's not clear. The way they did it for the S and X requires 4x high power switches in the ports. So with the new CCS connectors on the Superchargers and the CCS port on the Model 3, my assumption is that they're dropping that more expensive arrangement on the ports.

 

[keydiver]

nice garage with 36 panels. how were you able to get them so close to the edges, in Florida? is that ~11.3kW?

Its actually only 7.4 kW, if I recall. The reason the front panels are so close to the edge, and the front corner has that hole that some people quickly notice, is that I added the front row of panels myself AFTER the inspection (one extra panel on each string). I did the complete installation myself, with the help of friends, except for the electrical panel work. All the design tools are online now, so a cheap solar system is an easy DIY. I just wish I had more room for more panels. I have 2 Powerwalls on order.

 

[JRP3]

I'm under an NDA and would like to be invited back for future tours someday. I've said all I plan to say.

So you're not unknown?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Production is going well. I see an increase and more activity on weekends. They are definitely adding more shifts to weekends.

Thanks for the update Troy. Can you provide some insight on your source(s) for the above?

Also, judging by the comments on your latest tweets, it seems like there is still a lot of confusion as to your forecasting methodology. It may be helpful to include a step by step calculation for your production/delivery numbers in the Tracker (e.g. reported Model 3 VINs, fit regression, determine cumulative production, etc.). If you already have this somewhere, can you link?

 

[EVNow]

Quite normal that we trade sideways at that level and be prepared that we also can go down a bid before we go up again.

I'm hoping so

 

[EVNow]

So you're not unknown?

That is unknowable.

 

[Zaxxon]

 

[BioSehnsucht]

First Tesla dual-connectorstation with CCS: Looks like an ordinary V1 CCS (aka 200A max current). If so, that's going to suck for Model 3s. Better get V3 out soon :Þ

Also, while I've said it before, it bears repeating: Tesla is way better at designing connectors than everyone else :Þ What a stupid connector...

How can you tell it is only 200A connector? There doesn't seem to be any physical difference as far as I can tell from the relevant Wiki page, they specify the same connector, just additional higher level communication protocols and some other things.