What will Battery upgrades cost on Model 3?

[Brad_SC]

I am creating a series of polls regarding what we (collectively) think certain features will cost on the Model 3.

This is a forum, so please feel free to add comments, but for the sake of data collection, please do vote on the polls!

I will provide the Model S and Model X price points for each of those features, in USD.

Yes, the Model S and Model X have a few more features than I’ll be making polls for, but some of those features are just not needed to be polled on.

 

[Steepler2k]

I think this one will depend on the size of the battery increase and how much cost savings they're realizing with the gigafactory.

If it's a 15kWh upgrade and the gigafactory is humming along, there's a possibility for <$5k.

If 20kWh upgrade and/or gigafactory delays, then well over $5k.

 

[nexsuperne101]

With so many rapid chargers being brought on line, is capacity beyond 250 miles worth paying an extra 5k for? I don't know about you, but here in the UK, 250 miles can easily take 5 hours with the traffic, which is about 2 hours more than I need for a bathroom break! As long as it does 150 miles with ease in the depths of winter, I will be very happy.

 

[Brad_SC]

I think the biggest benefits of the longer range batteries are going to be:
1. The initial range from the full charge achieved overnight when traveling. (First part of the day will be an extended drive, followed by several shorter drives.)
2. Those random trips to the middle of no where. (Christmas tree shopping comes to mind. We drive to the mountains to shop for trees, it's about 125 miles one way, in the cold, up a mountain, with 2-4 people in my car. There are no convenient charging options available in the area. PLEASE make a 300+ mile range battery option!)

 

[pmich80]

With so many rapid chargers being brought on line, is capacity beyond 250 miles worth paying an extra 5k for? I don't know about you, but here in the UK, 250 miles can easily take 5 hours with the traffic, which is about 2 hours more than I need for a bathroom break! As long as it does 150 miles with ease in the depths of winter, I will be very happy.

I think what happens is that with the upgraded battery, you also probably include dual motor and Supercharging standard (if it isn't already included).. so that's why it'll be beneficial to upgrade (i assume)

 

[jkk_]

I think the biggest benefits of the longer range batteries are going to be:

3. with bigger battery you cycle your battery less, meaning it should be in better shape compared to a lower capacity battery all thing equal

PLEASE make a 300+ mile range battery option!

500km (~311 miles) would be sweet spot for me. So, how do we pressure Tesla to make it happen?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

With so many rapid chargers being brought on line, is capacity beyond 250 miles worth paying an extra 5k for? I don't know about you, but here in the UK, 250 miles can easily take 5 hours with the traffic, which is about 2 hours more than I need for a bathroom break! As long as it does 150 miles with ease in the depths of winter, I will be very happy.

From my experience with my Volt, if you want 150 miles in the middle of winter without any range anxiety and not charging above say 85% for the health of the battery then you are going to need a capacity of 250 miles.

Dan

 

[Justified]

With so many rapid chargers being brought on line, is capacity beyond 250 miles worth paying an extra 5k for? I don't know about you, but here in the UK, 250 miles can easily take 5 hours with the traffic, which is about 2 hours more than I need for a bathroom break! As long as it does 150 miles with ease in the depths of winter, I will be very happy.

I agree it would probably be sufficient there however the UK and Europe in general is a much more compact space. The US is a much larger land mass and people drive exponentially more here. The range is much more of a concern here and I would need to see at least 250 miles range on the larger battery but hopefully more to make it worth it. I would be super happy with over 300 and would never worry about range.

 

[SpiceWare]

I agree it would probably be sufficient there however the UK and Europe in general is a much more compact space. The US is a much larger land mass and people drive exponentially more here. The range is much more of a concern here and I would need to see at least 250 miles range on the larger battery but hopefully more to make it worth it. I would be super happy with over 300 and would never worry about range.

I've noticed that Europeans often have no concept of how vast the US is. A friend of mine who lives just outside of Detroit had some visitors from Europe. When they were figuring out what to do they suggested driving down to DisneyWorld for the day. They were shocked to discover it would take over 16 hours just to get there.

 

[Sharkbait]

Speculation. Base Model 3 with 44 kWh battery and upgrade bundle to 66 kWh battery, AWD dual motors (0-60 - 4.7 sec.) a $9,000 upgrade. 44 kWh battery cost estimated at $6,900 to make, so 66 kWh battery, half again as much to a bit over $10,000. 66 kWh battery maybe a $3,500-$4,000 upgrade or the whole package above bundled for $9,000 (AWD, 2 motors and upgraded battery). Article here:

Tesla Model 3: speculating on versions, batteries, prices, power

I think bundling options is the only way to keep the price of a loaded M3 from doubling. Even most ICE cars don't double the price when fully loaded. Take everything with 5 lbs of salt.

 

[Colsla]

Speculation. Base Model 3 with 44 kWh battery and upgrade bundle to 66 kWh battery, AWD dual motors (0-60 - 4.7 sec.) a $9,000 upgrade. 44 kWh battery cost estimated at $6,900 to make, so 66 kWh battery, half again as much to a bit over $10,000. 66 kWh battery maybe a $3,500-$4,000 upgrade or the whole package above bundled for $9,000 (AWD, 2 motors and upgraded battery). Article here:

Tesla Model 3: speculating on versions, batteries, prices, power

I think bundling options is the only way to keep the price of a loaded M3 from doubling. Even most ICE cars don't double the price when fully loaded. Take everything with 5 lbs of salt.

You may know more than I do about the batteries ... but based on what I read on this forum I think the base will be 55kWh which translates to 60kWh battery (about 10% of the battery is 'reserved' for battery life).

 

[Sharkbait]

I guess it depends on how fast the Gigafactory can bring down the battery cost. What, currently kWh battery cost is running $150 (minimum), maybe $200? 60 kWh would then be $9,000-$12,000 today for the base M3. Maybe Tesla is planning to bring down the cost to $100 kWh by the time the car goes into production. If so, does $6,000 worth of power sound reasonable in a $35,000 base model? Perhaps so. That's around 1/6th of the car's cost. I thought I read that MS batteries were about 1/4 the cost of the car.

 

[Rashomon]

I suspect the larger pack will be about 15kWh larger, based on a roughly 30 percent increase from the large pack to the small, consistent with past Tesla practice. If so, the larger pack should be between $5K and $10K more expensive. Where in that range has to do with costs and margins that are not well understood outside Tesla yet (and perhaps even within, until the Gigafactory is actually in production!) . . . If I had to bet on a single number, I'd say $7000. Perhaps the big-pack M3D will eke out 300 EPA miles, but I suspect it'll be more like 290.
Of course, pack energy will slowly increase during the time the 3 is in production, as will range. A 2022 M3D may offer 330 mile range. The fully loaded Model SD of that time will be well over 400 miles -- the Model S will pick up about a 20 percent range improvement in its Mark II version just through aero, rolling friction, and drive system efficiency improvements. I'm beginning to wonder if there will ever be a battery bigger than 120kWh except perhaps for a pick-up truck or full-size van. Once you hit 480 mile (call it 800km) range, is there any conceivable reason for more?

 

[Automaton]

I have no idea about the costs involved, but as a consumer of a $35k car I wouldn't expect the larger battery to add more than a couple thousand dollars to get me to 300 miles of range.

 

[Rashomon]

I have no idea about the costs involved, but as a consumer of a $35k car I wouldn't expect the larger battery to add more than a couple thousand dollars to get me to 300 miles of range.

If we assume record low cost of $125 kWh at the pack, not the cell, level, the larger pack might cost Tesla just under $2000 more than the small pack. There is absolutely no way with those costs that they will sell it to the consumer for less than $5000, and those costs are very optimistic. One assumption in all this is that Tesla's margin on the base car is probably much less than they need, and they'll make up for it on the option pricing on more loaded versions -- just as everyone else in the car business does.

 

[Sharkbait]

Base car margin is supposedly 10%. With options (like higher capacity battery packs) fetching 30% margins each. I believe manufacturers of ICE cars also depend on the higher margins of the options to help prop up the bottom line. 25% margin on the battery pack over the potentially future $100 kWh cost is not out of the question.

I guess the question is what size of battery pack will be standard in 2018 for the M3? Perhaps 60 kWh but at what cost, affecting the base model price of $35,000. I guess 60 kWh pack is not unreasonable to assume if battery technology evolves and price per kWh drops.

 

[Blue Millenium]

I read somewhere 200.00 per additional kWh

 

[Sharkbait]

I read somewhere 200.00 per additional kWh

I believe that was today's cost.

 

[Blue Millenium]

I believe that was today's cost.

Good point

 

[Automaton]

If we assume record low cost of $125 kWh at the pack, not the cell, level, the larger pack might cost Tesla just under $2000 more than the small pack. There is absolutely no way with those costs that they will sell it to the consumer for less than $5000, and those costs are very optimistic. One assumption in all this is that Tesla's margin on the base car is probably much less than they need, and they'll make up for it on the option pricing on more loaded versions -- just as everyone else in the car business does.

Now that I think of it, most gas-powered cars already get about 350 miles per tank without having to upgrade anything at thousands of dollars of expense. This car is starting to look like a money pit after all... the exact opposite of what it was envisioned to be.