There is no good reason to buy one of these. Once they can actually mass produce them at the volume they want the price will probably drop 20k. They are just trying to milk money out of the people willing to pay.
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What will you do with your Cybertruck reservation?
- Thread starter Cheburashka
- Start date
I have a different take on Tesla honoring pre-order pricing. Remember, Tesla took off the prices from the pre-order site months after the initial reveal. I suspect those that pre-ordered before the prices were taken off will get the reveal pricing. All the rest will get market pricing.
I pre-ordered a Y and still had the original pricing honored even though I later added a tow hitch to my order via the SC (after price increases had already started) and delayed delivery once. In fact they honored the original pricing, while offering me a showroom display model with under 50 mi with a 1.9k discount a few months after I asked to be put back in the queue.
I pre-ordered a Y and still had the original pricing honored even though I later added a tow hitch to my order via the SC (after price increases had already started) and delayed delivery once. In fact they honored the original pricing, while offering me a showroom display model with under 50 mi with a 1.9k discount a few months after I asked to be put back in the queue.
Jedi2155
Model 3 has Arrived.
I pre-ordered early on and doubt I'll get the original marketted pricing. WIll be really interesting to see if they honor original pricing.
P90D
Member
The price hike will dissipate by the time they build my order, so it's still "wait and see."
Are there people who seriously want their $100 back because they think the situation suddenly changed?
The prices from four years ago … did anyone seriously think those prices would be possible today?
What can you buy for the same price as four years ago? (other than auto industry union workers until about a week ago … : )
Are there people who seriously want their $100 back because they think the situation suddenly changed?
The prices from four years ago … did anyone seriously think those prices would be possible today?
What can you buy for the same price as four years ago? (other than auto industry union workers until about a week ago … : )
P90D
Member
Interest rates have jumped in the last year or so but are still trivial.
The only way Tesla would have gained any useful return would be to put the deposits into $TSLA.
I think Tesla should put all vehicle purchase money into $TSLA and return the gain/loss to the customer.
In this way, people who put down $50K or $100K for a Roadster II would now have something like a million in gains. : )
AustinM3LR
Member
Tesla will have no incentive to lower the prices until after all the existing pre-orders have had an opportunity to purchase at the launch prices. They are only going to lower prices as a demand lever. Even if they start seeing lower production costs due to the ramp, they'll take those profits until they exhaust all the demand at the current prices.
I also don't expect them to do what Rivian did (or tried to) and increase the prices before all the pre-orders had a chance to purchase at the launch price. That would be a marketing nightmare as it was for Rivian. The level they set for pricing was at the high end of what they thought a good portion of the pre-order holders would be willing and able to pay.
That isn't quite true. They will certainly monitor the conversion rate (IE converting reservations to orders) and that will tell them how the new pricing is being received. If the conversion rate is say 80% they'll be thrilled. If the conversion rate is 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 they will realize they are forked and start planning what adjustments they can make.
P90D
Member
I agree Tesla won't be discounting as their costs go down. But Tesla has changed. It's in the mode of discounting to balance demand with supply. Whatever discounting is needed to continue selling the tri-motor (and where's the quad-motor?) will happen as soon as demand slows for the high end. They'll "flush out" all demand for the high end for as long as they're production constrained, which is 2025 at the earliest, before building "the cheap ones." In other words, they'll be building the tri-motor exclusively till they've filled all orders and can produce more vehicles than there are orders for the tri-motor, then they build the dual motor, the the single motor. Of course, production engineering factors could come into effect if for example it's quicker to build the dual motor or actually more profitable if the complexity of the tri-motor results in higher costs and slower production (e.g. there's more to the tri-motor than just the dual motors in the rear and I assume all the power train comes directly from the tri-motor S and X, but there's a whole new battery cell and pack configuration, different voltage, different charging, different cooling … anything can and will go wrong. : )
So I expect my "day one" reservation, RN1127xxxxx, is in the first 100K and I'll want a tri-motor.
Barron's said to expect 1500 deliveries in '23 with 78,000 in 2024.
So my RN could become an order and built in 2024. If so, I'll potentially ask to postpone till it's a 2025 model year.
Tesla said it's earliest expectation is a 250,000 per year "run rate" till 2025.
In other words, by Dec '25, Tesla builds 40K in the last 30 days.
As soon as they ramp up to that run rate, they'll flush out the reservation queue in one or two quarters.
Today, the queue is rumored to be 2M.
We'll know what's happening because the secondary market will indicate the supply-demand pressure.
We'll see Cybertrucks on bringatrailer selling for $100K+ over sticker. For a handful of sales. Like Rivian. Like Lightning.
Then the novelty and influencer urgency fades and the opportunity for sane people to buy will quickly discover the "real" price.
For Rivian, that was $25K or so for quite while.
Tesla effectively did their Rivian-like reprice at the delivery event today. We'll see what backlash really comes. But it was more real and personal with Rivian because it was a small group of earnest customers expecting production right then. For Tesla, it's an anonymous million or two million "expressions of interest" and the supposition is a lot of them were interested in the price and specs at the launch. Now the demand for the F-150 has dried up, the Rivian continues to sell well (a luxury EV SUV more than a pickup) both Ford and GM have quit building their EV plan (factories and lines) and deferred into or beyond 2025. I just don't know that many luxury EV buyers want the bare bones Cybertruck at $100K.
Anyone have a similar poll from Reddit, FB, etc.? 75 votes isn't a huge sample size.
It's breaking towards 40% cancel, 30% wait and see, 30% planning to buy.
Personally, I think the 2m reservation number is inflated (many anecdotes of people who said they made 5+ reservations, but were just doing different trims to try to bump up their spot or whatnot). Even so, 2m reservations would mean:
-800k cancel
-600k waiting and seeing
-600k planning to buy
It's breaking towards 40% cancel, 30% wait and see, 30% planning to buy.
Personally, I think the 2m reservation number is inflated (many anecdotes of people who said they made 5+ reservations, but were just doing different trims to try to bump up their spot or whatnot). Even so, 2m reservations would mean:
-800k cancel
-600k waiting and seeing
-600k planning to buy
Whether they cancel now or the last moment before their deposit becomes non-refundable, I would bet the conversion rate of purchases ends up being maybe 10% or 200k vehicles. It’s easy for people to talk the talk until they go to get a loan at 8% and realize how expensive these have ended up being.
Hugh Mannity
Mediocre Member
Someone posted this on X FYI:
Ford F-150 Lightning Platinum
— Starting at $91,995
— 300 miles EPA range
— 0 - 60 in 4s
— Dual Motor
— 15 inch touchscreen
— Ford Blue Cruise with subscription
— 8,500 towing
— 1657 pound payload
Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor
— Fully equipped at $79,990 ($72,490 after point of sale credit)
— 340 miles EPA range, extendable to 470 miles
— 0 - 60 in 4.1s
— Dual Motor
— 19 inch touch screen
— Autopilot included free. FSD hardware standard.
— 11,000 pounds towing capacity
— 2,500 pound payload
You might want to change that Platinum to Lariat or change that Dual Motor to CyberBeast. If you want to do Apples to Apples, do Apples to Apples.
Where is the 360 degree camera for the F-150? Adaptive Cruise Control is Standard same as AP. How about Tailgate Step? Bigger Frunk? Bigger interior Space? More Interior Cargo Room? Underseat Storage without having to buy a Bin afterwards? Blue Cruise is free for 3 years. Sunroof? Massaging Seats on the Platinum? Real Leather Seats? Center console Work Desk?
Wouldn't the XLT extended range at $69,995 be a more apt comparison?
Also I think your numbers are off. The dual motor Cybertruck starts at $87190 if you read the fine print.
Yeah, this basically. The Lightning seems purpose built to be useful.
About the only thing the Cybertruck seems to have going for it is style. A lot of people hate the style. Personally I like it but I'd prefer the usefulness of all the stuff on the Lightning.
E90alex
Active Member
The comparable model is the F150 Lightning Lariat Extended range.
$79.9k and also qualifies for $7500 tax credit. Ford is also currently offering $7500 customer cash incentive.
Lariat ER has 320 miles of range (which is more realistic than Teslas rated range). 2024 models will get a heat pump for even better efficiency.
Blue cruise is subscription, yes, but it’s true hands free which Tesla does not even offer yet (FSD still requires hands on). Even without paying for blue cruise you still get CoPilot Active 2.0 which is comparable to basic Autopilot.
Parking sensors and true 360 camera are immensely useful for a large vehicle like a full size pickup.
Packaging and utility is much better on the Lightning. You get a power frunk and tailgate. You get access to the full market of F150 accessories since they can carry over from ICE models. You get a spare tire that doesn’t take up half the bed.
Here's a brand new 2023 F-150 Lightning, $50,969.
The problem is, Tesla from the beginning has been trying to compete with ICE vehicles. Not other Electric Vehicles. That's what put them on the map. Competitors "140 mile range on this expensive car". Tesla "300 mile range to match the average vehicle range on a full tank of gas".
Their target was to compete with Ford F-150. The F-150 Lightning wasn't out when they announced the Cybertruck. The Lightning came out and didn't compare to the F-150 ICE. The truck has been failing in sales. If Tesla wanted to knock it out of the park, they needed to compete with the best selling truck. They fell short. It may do better than the F-150 Lightning, but it falls short of the regular F-150 that can outperform it in every aspect with exception to acceleration which doesn't matter for a truck. If the F-150 Lightning is failing because of it's downfalls of not being able to even meet the capacities of a regular F-150, what makes you think the Cybertruck is going to do much better? Especially considering I just listed a Lightning for $51k... The CT is between the Ranger and the F-150 and the current cheapest model available is $80k. They needed to beat the F-150.
E90alex
Active Member
That $50k lightning is a Pro work truck model and that’s the original MSRP. It’s not like it’s a fully loaded model discounted to $50k.
The Lightning is “failing” where EVs in general are not popular. The pickup truck crowd in general tends to lean right and are fiercely anti EV. It’s their god given right to burn as much fuel as they want and roll coal on stupid environmentalist EV drivers. Any EV truck is going to be an uphill battle for that demographic. If the Lightning couldn’t win them over with its traditional pickup styling then the CT shaped like a door stop absolutely would not, even if it had 500 miles of range.
Lightning does well in areas with high EV sales.
SMLBound
Member
Black306
Active Member
The more videos I see on the Cybertruck, the more I think Elon was wanting to reinvent the truck and bring in a bunch of new tech along with it; ex 48v low-volt architecture & steer-by-wire. Almost a Model X 2.0, from a tech perspective. So I’m thinking the market needed a visually polarizing vehicle to deliver new tech for adoption purposes. Hate the fact announce prices were so far off, but it has turned out to be more than a reskinned Y/3.
I’m on the fence with my reservation, so I’m going to hold onto it for now and see what the prices are when my time to pick options come up. Fortunately, I placed an order about a year after announce, so I should have some time. Definitely getting one, but I may let my reservation go and pickup a SM when the demand/supply imbalance tips in more of a buyer’s favor.
I’m on the fence with my reservation, so I’m going to hold onto it for now and see what the prices are when my time to pick options come up. Fortunately, I placed an order about a year after announce, so I should have some time. Definitely getting one, but I may let my reservation go and pickup a SM when the demand/supply imbalance tips in more of a buyer’s favor.
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Reskinned X as expected. It's not a bad thing though, it's like a modern day El Camino.
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