When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

[DonaldBecker]

There is one battery redesign that does make a difference for the consumer (not sure if it's in the new 4680 cells). The internal shape of the cathode/anode are modified so the internal heat generation is way lower. That has many advantages, both during supercharging and driving, and it almost certainly will decrease the rate of battery degradation.

Which design aspect are you talking about?

The Tesla Battery Day presentation covered one possible construction change, a 'tabless' battery. This uses electrode foils that are laser patterned on the edges so that they can be crimped over on each end to substitute for welded central tabs. These crimped ends provides a shorter thermal and electrical path.

The shorter path is an enabling improvement for large cells, which otherwise would have problems charging and cooling, but there is nothing that stops the approach being used with the current cell sizes.

There are many other battery advances being talked about, so that many not be the one you are referring to.

 

[LevelHeaded]

Years away

 

[DanDi58]

I just listened to the 3-hour Joe Rogan podcast with Elon. I really wish Rogan knew a little more about Tesla as it would have been a great opportunity to ask Elon a lot of these questions and get some clarity, instead of spending 30 minutes talking about the new Roadster hovering.

 

[Langzaiguy]

I have concerns about its structural design. While I know Tesla batteries are top notch and generally pretty reliable, I've heard many stories of packs or modules being replaced out of warranty. My assumption is that this can't be done with the 4680's. I also wonder about insurance ramifications. I can just picture myself running over something on the highway, only to total the vehicle because the pack is damaged. Hope this isn't the case!

 

[DonaldBecker]

I have concerns about its structural design. While I know Tesla batteries are top notch and generally pretty reliable, I've heard many stories of packs or modules being replaced out of warranty. My assumption is that this can't be done with the 4680's. I also wonder about insurance ramifications. I can just picture myself running over something on the highway, only to total the vehicle because the pack is damaged. Hope this isn't the case!

People have the impression that a 'structural battery' would involve the cell cases being welded directly to the body, or that removing a battery module would cause the car to collapse under its own weight.

The current design is that the battery is packaged as modules. The modules are sealed, and are replaced as whole units. If Tesla switches to larger cells assembled as a structural battery, presumably the modules would look exactly the same externally. The only difference is that an updated body would expect that the battery module carries some of the dynamic load. The body itself would still be rigid enough to carry the static load, so modules could be unbolted and replaced without additional support.

A related example is the windshield on a modern car. Until about a half century ago most windshields were held in loosely place by a rubber gasket that was spread by a trim strip to hold the glass in place. There was a switch to structural windshields that were bonded into place to provide both rigidity and roll-over support. The vehicle will flex much more without the glass in place, but it's replaceable with no special consideration for temporary support.

 

[colea]

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

Because the lease on my previous car ended last month?

 

[jerry33]

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?

Once that comes into production, there will be something new down the pipe that you should also wait for. This is also true for any other high tech item. Using that as a principle, you'll never buy and will miss out on the enjoyment you could have had.

 

[LevelHeaded]

most significantly, longevity of the pack

longevity of the current pack is not a concern. Wouldn’t be unusual to get 1000+++ usable charge cycles out of the current pack, which would put the pack at far miles than the rest of the car is going to last (300k+).

 

[Devils son]

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?

Maybe because they live now.

 

[Guvnah]

Because the lease on my previous car ended last month?

That's a great reason! If my lease was ending I'd be hopping on the Model Y for sure! I have an older Model S so I'm trying to figure out when to move on...the Model S changed so much since the early models...

 

[Guvnah]

Once that comes into production, there will be something new down the pipe that you should also wait for. This is also true for any other high tech item. Using that as a principle, you'll never buy and will miss out on the enjoyment you could have had.

Yeah, sure, but if the structural battery pack with 4680 ends up improving range significantly as well as increasing charge curves and longevity due to thermal management improvements then I am trying to figure out if its worth waiting for. This seems to be one improvement that is more significant than others (ie. wood trim on the doors, console, etc.). I don't think there will be huge advances in "tech." right around the corner after the 4680s...!?

 

[Guvnah]

longevity of the current pack is not a concern. Wouldn’t be unusual to get 1000+++ usable charge cycles out of the current pack, which would put the pack at far miles than the rest of the car is going to last (300k+).

A 1000 or more cycles? Did I get that right? What do you think battery degradation for the current packs will be after that many cycles?

Tesla Bjorn has what 8% degradation after two years? (after 80km?)

 

[DonaldBecker]

A 1000 or more cycles? Did I get that right? What do you think battery degradation for the current packs will be after that many cycles?

Tesla Bjorn has what 8% degradation after two years? (after 80km?)

He uses the battery hard, with full cycles discharges and recharging using Superchargers, in a harsh environment.

Considering that degradation is initially steep, then has a shallower slope, his experience is a pretty good indication that battery life won't be a problem for most vehicles and users.

 

[LADude23]

This technology is still changing very quickly, and many competitors will be entering the market in the next couple of years. I'm waiting on delivery but I'm doing a 3-year lease for the first time in my life, partially because I'm now in business for myself and can deduct a payments, but also because I really don't want to invest in such a rapidly changing technology.

 

[Exelion]

Waiting for the Model Y to get 4680's? Don't hold your breath. When the 2170's came out, did the S and X get them? No, they didn't get those right away. Why? Because Tesla was already cranking out cars in a production process. It would take a really compelling reason for them to change the design, and change the factory to crank out 2170 S's and X's. So 3's and Y's got those batteries.

If any current designs would be getting them, it would be Berlin and Austin plants chugging those out, but those factories aren't up and running yet. That will take......time.

I really think the Semi, Cyber Truck, and New Roadster are the cars qualified to get the 4680's, as those aren't in production yet. Maybe one, maybe all three. But waiting for Fremont 3, Y, S, and X to get those batteries? Slim chance, and not probable.

Lastly, when they DO come out, let's say the S,3,X,and Y do get the 4680's, how much do you think they'll cost? Not significantly less. Tesla would structure the pricing accordingly with their naming conventions and subtly edge people to buy the longer range models for more money, what they think many people would spend for them.

 

[SactoEVer]

Any thoughts on whether we'll see a notable improvement on the current range before before the 4680s are incorporated?

 

[Exelion]

This is entirely possible, because battery makers are always trying to cram more longevity into their current designs. Latest I saw was a 5% increase (which doesn't sound like a lot) which is a really nice thing because:

-It doesn't disrupt the production line. The batteries are the same physical size and packed the same way, just that each battery has a tiny bit more juice.

-If they continue to do this, in four years that is 20% increase from yesterday, which is now a LOT. Optimistic projection and purely speculative, but its nice to dream sometimes.

-Pricing is still the same, hasn't increased 5% to match the increased range (ssssshhhh keep this quiet!)

-The only thing better than a 5% increase via battery mfg is 5% increase from software updates, and those have happened before too. Any increase of range is ALWAYS welcome, no matter how small they may seem.

 

[fishtaco]

Do you know what the chemistry in the 4680 and the updates 18650 is??

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

I'll get the 4680s + structural batteries and a lot of other things with my CyberTruck.

We won’t see the CyberTruck for at least another 12 months minimum. Elon is a great teaser, like a schoolgirl who knows she’s hot and has nice boobs... you can see these titties! ..but not until this, this, and that. Don’t hold your breath buddy. It’s not coming this year.

 

[dragonvn]

Noone know, if ever, and that's the exact reason we don't wait.