$12K for FSD is insane

[Knightshade]

Because the software is crap. Driving down I-25 at 80mph, the car slams on the brakes. Those extra 8 eyes saw the shadow of a bridge and freaked out. If there was a car behind me, I would have been rear-ended.

Humans are terrible measuring devices- typically when people think it SLAMMED on the brakes it just let off the accelerator.

There was a thread a year or two back where someone actually measured phantom braking with an accelerometer and found it was roughly the same deceleration as just regen letting off the go pedal.


Would it be better without it? Sure.

But as already pointed out to you, every active cruise control system has this issue-- many worse than Tesla. Over half a dozen sources proving that posted yesterday.

Agree. This was my basic point in my first post. The great majority of the fleet now has a nerfed baby version of autopilot that is just radar cruise and lane keeping.

Except, again, the accident rate using AP was already much lower than without AP before that change in how the features were split up.

How do you handwave away 3 quarters of data showing the conclusion you refuse to accept that happened before the change you're blaming the results on?

 

[JustJohn]

No, the fact there's billions of miles of recorded use, with a significantly better safety record than driving without it, does though.



This is an outright lie.

Other car makers have had massive recalls and lawsuits over unintended braking and other issues with adaptive cruise systems, including not just brake issues (and others, like unintended acceleration, etc) on their systems, far worse than Tesla. Just a very few examples:

U.S. probes 553,000 Nissan Rogue SUVs for unintended emergency braking

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a preliminary investigation into 553,000 Nissan Rogue sport utility vehicles after reports of their automatic emergency braking systems engaging without warning or an obstruction, the agency said on Thursday...

www.reuters.com

Toyota recalls over 200,000 vehicles in China for non-compliant adaptive cruise control system

They involve 116,551 Corolla vehicles produced by Tianjin FAW Toyota from August 2019 to July 2021 and 109,034 Levin vehicles produced by GAC Toyota from May 2019 to July 2021.

cnevpost.com

Ford Recalls F-150s To Repair Cruise Control Radar

In yet another recall for the F-150, Ford has recalled the pickup to repair the cruise control radar module so that the vehicle's safety systems will work correctly.

www.torquenews.com

Dodge Jeep Recall: Adaptive Cruise Control Allows Unintended Acceleration

Dodge Jeep Recall P31 14V293000. The unintended continued acceleration may increase the risk of a crash.

repairpal.com

Alfa Recalls Adaptive Cruise Control

This recall involves 2017-2019 Alfa Romeo Giulia and 2018-2019 Stelvio vehicles. The adaptive cruise control (ACC) may not allow cancellation of the ACC in specific driving conditions...

www.autoserviceprofessional.com

Mazda3 Recalled for Sudden, Unexpected Emergency Braking

Consumer Reports shares details of the Mazda3 recall. More than 35,000 Mazda3 vehicles are being recalled because their automatic emergency braking (AEB) system could falsely activate.

www.consumerreports.org

Lawsuit Targets Nissan and Infiniti Vehicles for Faulty "Phantom Braking"

www.baileyglasser.com

Phantom Braking

www.e-tronforum.com

Adaptive cruise and phantom braking

I love my Palisade except for how often it improperly detects a "phantom" car ahead in my lane, causing it to slow drastically when it doesn't need to. Typically there is a vehicle in the other lane and I suspect it somehow has to do with shadows and/or glare from the other vehicle in addition...

palisadeforums.org

The fact phantom braking is common to all adaptive cruise systems has been widely reported for years. Weird you missed it.




Tesla, in contrast, as had ONE recall ever, for this- and it was due to a faulty software update that was corrected like a day later with an OTA update.







Again this is an outright lie- Even CR, which tends to be quite anti-tesla, admitted the actual function of their system was superior to everyone else they tested, only putting Caddy for nebulous things like "driver engagement and monitoring" rather than the actual driving functions where Tesla was ahead in virtually ever measure of performance.

And Tesla being Tesla has since been able to significantly increase the driver monitoring capabilities via free OTA updates using the interior camera too--- While Cadillac has instead... stopped selling their system entirely blaming chip shortages.

GM Temporarily Abandons Its Super Cruise Self-Driving Feature

Good luck finding a car with Super Cruise.

www.reviewgeek.com

If you can't argue honestly you don't have a very good argument.

Seems that you are just happy with poor performance.

 

[Knightshade]

Seems that you are just happy with poor performance.

On the contrary- Teslas system continues to offer excellent performance compared to all others.

I'm sorry you're triggered by my posting a bunch of sources showing your clams "nobody" else has phantom braking are factually untrue- and in fact not only do all the other brands have it, most have it far worse.

A good solution would be stop posting untrue things.



Anyway- AP is literally the thing that sold me the car, since at purchase time 95% of my driving was highway. I tested other L2 highway systems from Lexus/Toyota, Nissan/Infiniti, BMW, Hyundai/Genesis, Honda/Acura, etc... all of them were terrible in comparison.

I've got over 30k miles on it now (and it'd be at least 2-3x that if not for Covid moving most work to home), still 90%+ on highway using AP and it remains awesome.

 

[dbldwn02]

 

[wwu123]

I don't want to add to an already contentious argument, so just one question I didn't see an answer earlier in the thread. But if I'm driving with AP on for 100 miles, and if being even remotely attentive notice that AP is about to send me into the shoulder lane or a disabled vehicle, I'm going to slam on the brakes or grab the wheel to avoid the accident - thus disengaging AP. If too late or unable to avoid the accident entirely, which occurs a bit after AP is off, is this accident going to be counted as AP on, or AP off, in the data?

Is it 100 miles of AP with one accident? Or 100 miles of AP with no accident, 1 mile of "no AP" with accident?

 

[Knightshade]

I don't want to add to an already contentious argument, so just one question I didn't see an answer earlier in the thread. But if I'm driving with AP on for 100 miles, and if being even remotely attentive notice that AP is about to send me into the shoulder lane or a disabled vehicle, I'm going to slam on the brakes or grab the wheel to avoid the accident - thus disengaging AP. If too late or unable to avoid the accident entirely, which occurs a bit after AP is off, is this accident going to be counted as AP on, or AP off, in the data?

Is it 100 miles of AP with one accident? Or 100 miles of AP with no accident, 1 mile of "no AP" with accident?

Tesla explains their methodology- I've bolded the most relevant part for your question.

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

At Tesla, we believe that technology can help improve safety. That’s why Tesla vehicles are engineered to be the safest cars in the world. We believe the unique combination of passive safety, active safety, and automated driver assistance is crucial for keeping not just Tesla drivers and...

www.tesla.com

Methodology:
We collect the amount of miles traveled by each vehicle with Autopilot active or in manual driving, based on available data we receive from the fleet, and do so without identifying specific vehicles to protect privacy. We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which may include data about whether Autopilot was active at the time of impact. To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated. On the other hand, police-reported crashes from government databases are notoriously under-reported, by some estimates as much as 50%, in large part because most minor crashes (like “fender benders”) are not investigated. We also do not differentiate based on the type of crash or fault. (For example, more than 35% of all Autopilot crashes occur when the Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle.) In this way, we are confident that the statistics we share unquestionably show the benefits of Autopilot.

So in your example it sounds like it'd be 99 miles of AP driving with no accident, and 1 mile of AP driving with accident... since if the time between disengagement and crash was more than 5 seconds you'd have been able to avoid the crash entirely. 5 seconds is a long time at highway speeds.

 

[Sporty]

Humans are terrible measuring devices- typically when people think it SLAMMED on the brakes it just let off the accelerator.

…

Doesn’t matter. It needs to not upset the humans in the car. While it surprises & drives my anxiety up when it occurs, it’s does so even more if my wife is in the passenger seat. “Was that you or that car?” “What’s a matter with the car?” “Turn that thing off”. It’s basically “fired” by my wife for a while when it does this.

I pretty much don’t use it if I have a passenger out of consideration for them.

So not only does it need to be safer. It needs to be usable by the driver (Eg make the job easier). And it needs to do a good enough job where passengers aren’t griping about it.

 

[Knightshade]

Doesn’t matter. It needs to not upset the humans in the car.

Some humans are a lot more easily upset than others of course.

I've sold half a dozen Teslas to others simply by letting them try AP out.

Most people love it. See also the billions of miles of data Tesla has on people liking it enough to use it- plus the months of backorders Tesla has on new cars that all come with basic AP standard despite massive increases in production.



I'll again point out though it's weird people keep drooping back to discussion of basic AP in a thread that is specifically about the 12k package that is not basic AP

 

[Sporty]

Some humans are a lot more easily upset than others of course.

I've sold half a dozen Teslas to others simply by letting them try AP out.

Most people love it. See also the billions of miles of data Tesla has on people liking it enough to use it- plus the months of backorders Tesla has on new cars that all come with basic AP standard despite massive increases in production.



I'll again point out though it's weird people keep drooping back to discussion of basic AP in a thread that is specifically about the 12k package that is not basic AP

I have fsd beta. The only ‘driving’ thing it gives me over AP is Nav (lane change) and a ding at green light reminder. There are 2 problems which stop me from getting value out of lane change. So the only driving thing fsd gives me is a green light ding.

I also have an impressive virtual ui view. I’m impressed with that and think it’s cool. But it’s not really a ‘driving’ feature I use while driving. (And it L2 so I still need to be driving). I like seeing it though.

 

[COS Blue]

I'll again point out though it's weird people keep drooping back to discussion of basic AP in a thread that is specifically about the 12k package that is not basic AP

It's because basic AP is "part of" FSD. Part of Tesla's description of Nav on Autopilot is:

includes automatic lane changes, Traffic-Aware Cruise Control with complete stopping and re-engagement, Autosteer, and overtaking slow cars in your lane.

The point is that it can't even do the basic stuff well, so why on earth would we pay $12k to do more stuff. Their own disclaimers warn you that it's not going to do any of the "advanced" stuff well either (and a random sampling of YouTube videos confirms this).

typically when people think it SLAMMED on the brakes it just let off the accelerator.

Whatever. It slammed on the brakes.

 

[Knightshade]

I have fsd beta. The only ‘driving’ thing it gives me over AP is Nav (lane change) and a ding at green light reminder.

This seems to be mixing up 2 different things...

The "12k for FSD" is for the public version of FSD.

Which adds many more driving features than just lane changes..... passing slower traffic, handling highway interchanges to follow your route, handling highway exits when route requires it, and actually stopping for red lights and stop signs... none of which basic AP does. That's on top of the various other features in public FSD like the parking, summon, etc.


FSDBeta on the other hand is not a sold product-- it's a limited release for specific people in specific areas for development and testing purposes, ONE of the criteria for being included is having access to public FSD, but not the only one. MOST people who pay 12k today don't get it.

The point is that it can't even do the basic stuff well

But this point isn't any more true than the other factually wrong, already debunked, claims you made earlier about "nobody" else having phantom braking when not only does everyone have it, most have it worse than Tesla.

AP is doing basic stuff well and has for billions of miles of real world driving.

If it was half as bad as you claim nobody would use it at all.

Whatever. It slammed on the brakes.

Sure Jan.

 

[dbldwn02]

Whatever. It slammed on the brakes.

You're from the Springs too so you may know this. Marksheffel Road going South. Two lane road...sweeping right turn. Oncoming traffic...BRAKE! Every time. I ride the throttle to avoid it on my daily commute, but let off when no one is behind me just to see if it ever gets fixed. Not worth $5k, $3k, $12k, whatever k's.

 

[Knightshade]

You're from the Springs too so you may know this. Marksheffel Road going South. Two lane road...sweeping right turn. Oncoming traffic...BRAKE! Every time. I ride the throttle to avoid it on my daily commute, but let off when no one is behind me just to see if it ever gets fixed. Not worth $5k, $3k, $12k, whatever k's.

So first- basic AP is $0 on new cars.

Second, it's not intended to be used on that type of road in the first place. The manual mentions this explicitly.

Autosteer is intended for use on controlled-access highways with a fully attentive driver.

That's not a controlled access highway you're driving on there.



GREAT example though of the super common user error I mentioned earlier though debunking the idea people only use AP "properly" on real controlled access highways as intended so thanks for proving that point

 

[AndreP]

There are many, many potential reasons why Autopilot could have a lower accident rate than average across the US:

• Similar to FSD, I think people who use Autopilot extensively tend to learn where it does and does not function well and will only activate it under circumstances they know it will nail and are extra careful in circumstances where they haven't used it before.
• There could be selection bias in the people who tend to use it most.
• The fact that it's highway miles, but that's not news to anyone.

Do people tend to engage Autopilot in bad weather, which is a major contributor to accident stats?
Are there many younger people, teenagers, and new drivers engaging Autopilot? This is another big contributor.
Are people often engaging Autopilot in rural driving?

I don't think anyone who researches automotive safety looks at the published Autopilot number and thinks "holy, this is effective!" So much more data is required to do a valid assessment.

 

[aronth5]

....
Do people tend to engage Autopilot in bad weather, which is a major contributor to accident stats?

I don't engage FSD based on weather. In fact a good percentage of the time when I drive in inclement weather will automatically disable FSD. Happened to me yesterday on a 75 mile highway drive. About 30% of the time FSD was disabled due to light to moderate rain. Super annoying.

 

[Knightshade]

There are many, many potential reasons why Autopilot could have a lower accident rate than average across the US:

• Similar to FSD, I think people who use Autopilot extensively tend to learn where it does and does not function well and will only activate it under circumstances they know it will nail and are extra careful in circumstances where they haven't used it before.

• 
  
  I don't think that would explain why the system has gotten safer over time, unless you assume new owners have magically gotten MUCH better at figuring this out.
  
  A more likely explanation is the system improved, since its accident rate declined even compared to its own #s from earlier times.
  
  

  [*]There could be selection bias in the people who tend to use it most.

  
  
  How so? You're saying people who are inherently bad drivers use it less? Or use it more? Or what?
  
  
  

  [*]The fact that it's highway miles, but that's not news to anyone.

  
  it's also not accurate.
  
  Hilariously we JUST in the posts above yours saw yet another example of it.
  
  People very commonly use it outside of highways despite the manual telling you not to.
  
  Then complain anytime it does something wrong there to double down on the hilarity.
  
  So the idea "AP miles are all highway miles" simply is not so
  
  
  
  

  Do people tend to engage Autopilot in bad weather, which is a major contributor to accident stats?
  Are there many younger people, teenagers, and new drivers engaging Autopilot? This is another big contributor.

  
  This would be very fair criticism especially driver age if you're only comparing "All tesla owners" to "all drivers".... but the stats also compare the SAME Tesla drivers with and without AP...and STILL find AP much safer.
  
  
  

  I don't think anyone who researches automotive safety looks at the published Autopilot number and thinks "holy, this is effective!" So much more data is required.

  
  
  FWIW I agree Tesla could offer a lot more useful breakdown of the stats.
  
  And I wouldn't be at all surprised to find there's a ton of interesting caveats in the degree to which AP improves safety.
  
  I'd be VERY surprised if it showed AP was ever less safe over any significant # of miles compared to non-AP in the same situation.

 

[COS Blue]

GREAT example though of the super common user error I mentioned earlier though debunking the idea people only use AP "properly" on real controlled access highways as intended so thanks for proving that point

Entirely predictable response but not actually accurate. I looked at my Owner's Manual and here is what is says for TACC (my emphasis added):

Traffic-Aware Cruise Control is primarily intended for driving on dry, straight roads, such as highways.

It has a bigger disclaimer for autosteer, but autosteer is not what hits the brakes.

And even if your supposition is correct, it kinda further proves the point. You can pay $12k for something but only use it on a dry, straight road, such as a highway. If you want cruise control like your 1989 Nissan had, too bad, we don't provide that.

 

[ucmndd]

Except, again, the accident rate using AP was already much lower than without AP before that change in how the features were split up.

How do you handwave away 3 quarters of data showing the conclusion you refuse to accept that happened before the change you're blaming the results on?

Because as I’ve covered 4 different times now, the conclusion that autopilot is the cause for the “much lower” accident rate is statistical garbage with zero proven causation. Tesla has shown nothing that reasonably proves autopilot is the cause for the lower accident rate they represent in their marketing chart.

The baseline number is meaningless - it’s still reasonable to propose that incremental “improvements” to that number in subsequent quarters can and would be caused by feature packaging decisions leading to an increasing share of observed miles being carried out in statistically much safer conditions.

An intro statistics course would be helpful to all participants if this discussion is to continue.

 

[Double-O]

I'll wait until it's free. Oh....never?

I'd probably want it deactivated (removed if possible) if I purchased a used tesla and it came with it. This isn't a car that's gonna die with me. No point in investing in such tech until it's common amongst many manufacturers and it's proven to be reliable.

 

[Knightshade]

And even if your supposition is correct, it kinda further proves the point. You can pay $12k for something but only use it on a dry, straight road, such as a highway. If you want cruise control like your 1989 Nissan had, too bad, we don't provide that.

Cruise control from 1989 would just slam into slower traffic in front of you.

You seem to continually argue you want a less safe car, which makes your purchase of the safest car on the market, a Tesla, pretty weird.