2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm collecting some data,
View attachment 247307

may want to add couple more columns for avg volume and days to cover. interesting development on that front this week.

 

[vgrinshpun]

VW wants European industry to back push for EV battery cells.

One can't make this up! Pinnacle of leadership...

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) wants industrial players in Germany and Europe to help shoulder the costs for battery technology needed to power carmakers’ electric-vehicle offerings, the head of its core autos division said.

Europe’s largest automaker, its German rival Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and PSA Group (PEUP.PA) used the Frankfurt auto show this week to speed up their push for zero-emissions motoring.

Volkswagen (VW) will expand its planned roll-out of electric cars to 80 models by 2025 from 30 a year ago and said it would need four times the capacity of Tesla’s (TSLA.O) “gigafactory” to supply their batteries.

“It would be desirable for the German and European industry to play a stronger role here,” VW brand Chief Executive Herbert Diess said when asked about the prospects for battery-cell production.

Good luck catching up with Tesla, leave along "killing" it if they plan to rely on others to facilitate their transition to EVs. Coordinating between automotive giants and industrial players (plural!) in Germany and Europe is just what one needs to "accelerate" the transition.

 

[jhm]

VW wants European industry to back push for EV battery cells.

One can't make this up! Pinnacle of leadership...



Good luck catching up with Tesla, leave along "killing" it if they plan to rely on others to facilitate their transition to EVs. Coordinating between automotive giants and industrial players (plural!) in Germany and Europe is just what one needs to "accelerate" the transition.

Hey, VW, China would love to shoulder that heavy burden for you. You might give them a call.

 

[supratachophobia]

Don't change the context. The discussion is present not past (feel free to reread what you wrote that I quoted). Currently it's quite clearly stated on the website there is no date specified and that regulatory approval is also required.

Go visit a sales gallery, their current (present) attitude is very.... Optimistic with regards to FSD. Although if you press the issue, the actual timeline behind to play out. In that, there is no timeline.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Hey, VW, China would love to shoulder that heavy burden for you. You might give them a call.

Well, if VW wants to rely on China for the batteries they will never catch up with Tesla.

I've posted a comparison of the residential battery storage offerings from MB, BYD and Tesla a while back.

If the largest Chinese EV manufacturer, BYD offering is whopping 56% **more** expensive per kWh than Tesla PowerWall, while **not** including inverter, **not** including temperature control, and **not** suitable for outdoor installation, how would batteries from China could possibly help VW to catch up with Tesla? Seems like a pure drug induced fantasy to me.

 

[mongo]

why do you need SA articles to tell you that's 75/wk when the goal is 5k/wk in 100 days?... they should be around 50/day or 250/wk right now... IF this reddit post is true... this is bad news... not good news.

but big deal right?... they're producing and that's all that matters?... well, no... the problem with the "S curve" is when the early stages lag... it affects the curve downstream.

15
30
60
120
240

50
100
200
400
800

see that... the "S curve" is exponentially affected by early misses.

what's wrong with that?... so this drags out a little bit... big deal right?

missing 5k/wk by EOY and coming in instead at 2k/wk means losses will be ridiculous, revenues will be dramatically missed and more debt or dilution will follow very quickly... if possible at the time... if not, bankruptcy... not being dramatic there... this is a moment where they must come through and not F it up... if it gets F'ed up... bankruptcy.

so, when people see 15/day in the early stages instead of 50/day... the likelihood of disaster is much greater.

Pulling from Market action to General:

Yes, those columns of numbers look scary different, but are you really trying to imply that having the S curve move 2 weeks would bankrupt Tesla? Assuming a rational supply chain, there is a slight shift in revenue during the S curve ramp up followed by no difference at the peak/ steady state.

 

[myusername]

Another important parameter is the starting point. I just grabbed 5/week to be low but here is 10: Note it fits the July output better and fits the 2 points better:

View attachment 247291

Which is also a more reasonable 68% per week. It also shows that 15/day is marginally behind, but not really since that is like a day +/-.

is the factory running 7 days a week, 365 days per year right now?... it appears that's what you've accounted for.

 

[vgrinshpun]

A pretty good run down on what the recent flurry of EV announcements actually mean:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Is No Joke For The Traditional Carmaker - Jaguar CEO

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Bears have finally come up with a strong argument...

 

[mongo]

Bears have finally come up with a strong argument...


View attachment 247317

I can haz typo?
Kudos to them for getting the single greater than three letter word correct...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I can haz typo?
Kudos to them for getting the single greater than three letter word correct...

In addition to the spelling mistake...

Notice the time stamp... does this person really have nothing better to do at 4 am?! Notice the sexism... Notice the attempt to make it cute with a smiley... And this was an opening message... I wonder if they expected a response... I just blocked them.

 

[Lessmog]

I can haz typo?
Kudos to them for getting the single greater than three letter word correct...

Must have had practice ...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

A pretty good run down on what the recent flurry of EV announcements actually mean:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Is No Joke For The Traditional Carmaker - Jaguar CEO

I would take his words seriously, if he had said them in 2010.

Seven years too late.

 

[RubberToe]

Man, I seriously hate the WSJ. I signed up for their trial just so I could post comments on Tesla and SpaceX articles. I knew they were quick to point out negatives about Tesla/SpaceX, but I didn't realize just how bad it was. Over the last 2 months, every time Tesla or SpaceX has had ANY type of good news, not a word from the WSJ. I even used their search functionality to check. Crickets. Nada.

So, just as I knew would happen, right when the crash report came out, there was the WSJ jumping all over it. How can people be so naive and read/believe their garbage?

Being a conservative libertarian, I've always noticed the bias in the MSM. But, I only realized it exists equally as bad on both sides about 5 or 6 years ago when I began to learn about Tesla. Hearing Fox News bash Tesla for getting a govt loan - with no mention that Ford also received a 15 times larger loan from the same program - really opened my eyes to the truth that EVERYONE has a damn agenda and you can't believe anything. Best to go check for yourself.

Can someone, ANYONE please explain why an American company would hate an American company so much? Their hate is so bad, it's obvious. Makes me sick!

The vested oil interests have everything to lose, they will not go down without a fight. That's your explanation.

RT

 

[Krugerrand]

Go visit a sales gallery, their current (present) attitude is very.... Optimistic with regards to FSD. Although if you press the issue, the actual timeline behind to play out. In that, there is no timeline.

What do I care what they say at a gallery? It's in black and white on the website where one would order. Intelligent people aren't in the habit of going to multiple sources for the purpose of finding someone to give them the answer they 'wish' to hear.

 

[30seconds]

I'm not sure what the upper bound is for 2025. Elon has made multiple comments about changing designs to increase the throughput of manufacturing. BY 2025 we may be through another three versions of Tesla autos/ SUVs so I don't think a linear extrapolation of factory throughput x number of factories will get you to an upper bound.

RIght now Elon is saying something like a million S+X+3 at Fremont. But the next factory may be designed around a new car that is hihgly engineered for throughput. Could they make 3m in a single factory this way? More?

I think it helps to think about this question in terms these groupings of potential coming sources of long range EV supply.*** :

Tesla: Elon pushes very very hard, but I still think 6-8 million units per year in 2025 is about the upper bound of what's possible. As an investor, the good news is, I think they will continue growing at a very rapid pace for many years past that and, so longer term, numbers like 15 million per year seem reasonably possible to me.
.

 

[mongo]

I'm not sure what the upper bound is for 2025. Elon has made multiple comments about changing designs to increase the throughput of manufacturing. BY 2025 we may be through another three versions of Tesla autos/ SUVs so I don't think a linear extrapolation of factory throughput x number of factories will get you to an upper bound.

RIght now Elon is saying something like a million S+X+3 at Fremont. But the next factory may be designed around a new car that is hihgly engineered for throughput. Could they make 3m in a single factory this way? More?

Interestingly (to me), 3 million model 3s produced 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, would leave the plant bumper to bumper at almost exactly 1MPH.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Another important parameter is the starting point. I just grabbed 5/week to be low but here is 10: Note it fits the July output better and fits the 2 points better:

View attachment 247291

Which is also a more reasonable 68% per week. It also shows that 15/day is marginally behind, but not really since that is like a day +/-.

I think your 1st model with the 87% rate is closer, remember week 1 of Sep in your model is Aug 28 - Sep 3 (Mon-Sun), so 1/2 of it is actually August. Take the 61 cars you modeled for that week and assign 1/2 to August, you end up with 95 cars in Aug, and 1505 cars in Sep. I don't see how the model could fit any better.

 

[jhm]

Well, if VW wants to rely on China for the batteries they will never catch up with Tesla.

I've posted a comparison of the residential battery storage offerings from MB, BYD and Tesla a while back.

If the largest Chinese EV manufacturer, BYD offering is whopping 56% **more** expensive per kWh than Tesla PowerWall, while **not** including inverter, **not** including temperature control, and **not** suitable for outdoor installation, how would batteries from China could possibly help VW to catch up with Tesla? Seems like a pure drug induced fantasy to me.

Right, VW looks pretty hopeless asking for someone to "shoulder" this for them.

 

[austinEV]

I think your 1st model with the 87% rate is closer, remember week 1 of Sep in your model is Aug 28 - Sep 3 (Mon-Sun), so 1/2 of it is actually August. Take the 61 cars you modeled for that week and assign 1/2 to August, you end up with 95 cars in Aug, and 1505 cars in Sep. I don't see how the model could fit any better.

The other thing to note here is that tiny variations in just about anything has wildly amplified affects. So this is just a very rough yardstick to see if we are kinda, sorta, close maybe.

And to the person I am ignoring, yes, I am assuming they are working 7 days a week during the ramp of the companies most important product ever. They won't forever but I expect they are right now. Why wouldn't they? You yourself said in an ignored post that small variations in the S curve make a big difference in output down the line. Either it's important or its not, you can't have it both ways.