2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Bet TSLA]

So here is a 15 minute version

28 minutes. Nothing new. Many minor inaccuracies, but watchable.

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk: The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Oct 8, 2017 at 10:20pm UTC

 

[Alketi]

Elon Musk: The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Oct 8, 2017 at 10:20pm UTC

It's a little confusing the way he worded it. I downloaded and sped up the video and I think the original video speed is correct.

So, I think Elon is implying that the speed of the equipment is 1/10 of what it can/should be. Not that the video has been slowed down in order to see things more clearly.

 

[Todd Burch]

It's a little confusing the way he worded it. I downloaded and sped up the video and I think the original video speed is correct.

So, I think Elon is implying that the speed of the equipment is 1/10 of what it can/should be. Not that the video has been slowed down in order to see things more clearly.

Correct. I think it means this station is running at 500 cars/week.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's a little confusing the way he worded it. I downloaded and sped up the video and I think the original video speed is correct.

So, I think Elon is implying that the speed of the equipment is 1/10 of what it can/should be. Not that the video has been slowed down in order to see things more clearly.

Yes, that is what Elon meant:

 

[EinSV]

Correct. I think it means this station is running at 500 cars/week.

It could be (and IMO likely is) less than that assuming there is more downtime or slowed down time than when the line is running smoothly at 5000 cars/wk. On the bright side, if we were at 500 cars per week that would only be a week or two behind the 1500/mo production rate predicted for September. Either way, nice to see the video!

 

[avoigt]

Correct. I think it means this station is running at 500 cars/week.

Show down to 1/10 is in my understanding 1/10 from the full capacity or target of 10,000/ week. In that case we are at 1,000/ week.

 

[geneclean55]

Show down to 1/10 is in my understanding 1/10 from the full capacity or target of 10,000/ week. In that case we are at 1,000/ week.

This is more of a stretch IMO. Capital expenditure is needed to increase from 5k to 10k per week. How do we know that doesn't require a new tandem section of this particular point of the line, for example?

 

[TradingInvest]

Show down to 1/10 is in my understanding 1/10 from the full capacity or target of 10,000/ week. In that case we are at 1,000/ week.

I believe each line is designed for 5,000/week. 10,000/week will need a second line in 2018.
1. Elon said they slowed it down so the operator can stop it in case something (is ready) to go wrong. Meaning it's running much slower than it appeared in the video.
2. We don't know if this is one of the bottle necks.

 

[jhm]

I'm blasting through my crown chakra right now. C'mon root follicles, you can do it.

 

[Krugerrand]

If Elon wants to score more points in PR, he should considered pledging some of his own money for any PR projects. I'd rather see him do a humanitarian thing personally than have Tesla take a Gross Margin hit.

Just a thought. I'm not suggesting he pay for the whole project. Just a small token fractional percentage

This would maybe help counter the FUD

He did already. He gave $250,000 of his own money.

 

[dc_h]

Elon Musk: The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Oct 8, 2017 at 10:20pm UTC

A nice FU to WSJ.

 

[dc_h]

Show down to 1/10 is in my understanding 1/10 from the full capacity or target of 10,000/ week. In that case we are at 1,000/ week.

I doubt it is running 1/10 speed full time. Sounds like troubleshooting, so probably on and off. Probably running high speed cameras, reviewing welds, connections and looking for software tweaks. Run one or two cars at a time, review, adjust, run again.

 

[kenliles]

A nice FU to WSJ.

Counter to popular diatribe,
Digital forms from Analogue, not the other way around
Clarity achieved only through Chaos
It’s a pleasure to be invested and play a role in this company, EM, and team
Full ahead—

 

[30seconds]

Hey Bears!!

I'm looking at you, WSJ, and literally all of you holier-than-thou, I understand a spreadsheet so therefore I understand science and technology than actual scientific and technological experts.

Eff-U.

We are literally 5+ decades into new hardware and software companies taking over and reinventing old industries and you can't see the next one steamrolling right towards you.

Too bad.

 

[schonelucht]

1. Elon said they slowed it down so the operator can stop it in case something (is ready) to go wrong. Meaning it's running much slower than it appeared in the video.

This is a big issue for throughput. As you stop an automated line, it's generally not just push the button again to start. You actually have to correct what went wrong in the first place, allow the automation engineer to look into the PLC to verify what went wrong, allow them time to correct or if you are very unlucky replace tooling that broke etc... Downtime can be anything from a few seconds to days. In my experience, when you are running a production line at 10%, your goal is to debug, not produce. Testing may deliver a car from time to time but nothing in volume.

 

[Lessmog]

Counter to popular diatribe,
Digital forms from Analogue, not the other way around
Clarity achieved only through Chaos
It’s a pleasure to be invested and play a role in this company, EM, and team
Full ahead—

This looks dangerously close to poetry. Warning only. Proceed at own risk. Always wear protection.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Many of you sped up Jack Rickard's 2 hour video in order to watch it.

So here is a 15 minute version, thanks to EVANNEX

Does anyone agree with Jack's "$950 in 60 months, and potentially $1,500 in ten years" call?

$950 would mean ~$150 billion valuation in 2022/23. Seems low to me.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is a big issue for throughput. As you stop an automated line, it's generally not just push the button again to start. You actually have to correct what went wrong in the first place, allow the automation engineer to look into the PLC to verify what went wrong, allow them time to correct or if you are very unlucky replace tooling that broke etc... Downtime can be anything from a few seconds to days. In my experience, when you are running a production line at 10%, your goal is to debug, not produce. Testing may deliver a car from time to time but nothing in volume.

I agree that trying to draw conclusions on overal production throughput by dividing 5k goal by 10 at this point in time is premature.

But with a year+ backlog of Model 3, would it be true that at *any* rate of line speed other than nominal (5k per week) Tesla goal is testing the line(s)? These "testing" speeds, however, could produce sizable output, not just scrap.

In absence of any data otherwise, my personal expectation that Tesla will achieve 5k per week by February. This is based on just applying a 5 month goal that they originally had on hitting the nominal production rate: starting producing in July, achieving 5k/week in December. It seems reasonable to conclude that they started the final assembly line on September 26th

How do you view their original 5 month goal on achieving nominal production rate: very aggressive, agressive, or about average?

 

[SPadival]

For anyone who does not sub to WSJ (that would be those not on my ignore list ), The Australia has reproduced the article.

Just google the following headlines (in desktop mode if you are on mobile) - "Tesla delays: Model 3 car parts ‘being made by hand’ "

The article is clearly single sourced fake news, despite Charley's protestations.

Inside the Fremont factory, workers said equipment for the so-called body-in-white line for the Model 3, where the car body’s sheet metal is welded together, wasn’t installed until by around September. They guessed at least another month of work remained to calibrate the tools.

One worker who spent time in the Model 3 shop—dubbed by some as Area 51 because of the limited access and secretive nature—described watching young workers in September struggling to move large pieces of steel to weld together instead of using robots as is traditionally the case.

“In place of the robots…you’ve got two associates lining up with a big, old spot welder hanging from the ceiling by a chain, and you’ve got one associate kind of like balancing it and trying to get the welder in position, and you’ve got another welder with his arm guiding it,” this worker recalled seeing. “Sparks go flying.”

Boom.. in less than a month, we have a video of the BIW line with robots welding a Model 3 BIW.