2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

Ron Baron is not an analyst. He is a fund manager.

Tesla-Elon did not do that as a PR move.

Your point is irrelevant anyway. Either $2k or $50k is mouse nuts for a PR expenditure.

Analyst, Fund Manager, whatever.

If someone is telling me I should buy or sell a stock, I want to know what their agenda is. Because if they own a stock, and tell me to buy, my buying increases the value of their holdings. The reverse holds true as well. So anybody with enough clout to get investors to follow their suggestions should be able to profit, simply by doing what they say to do before they say to do it, and then immediately bailing out when others follow their advice.

German crash: If not a PR move, then why do it? You can argue that its Elon's subscription to the Warren Buffet school of business (Delight your customer, and they'll sell your products for you.), but that's still just PR. You're right - the number doesn't matter. But to say its not a PR move is just naive. There is no reason Tesla has any moral obligation to support the guy who used their product in a way it wasn't designed for. The insurance that most drivers carry on a car like that would cover the damages, so its unlikely the Tesla driver wouldn't be made whole again either way.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

RSI being near 80 for 4-5 days, one week before earnings was a big red flag. All this talk of the UAW is noise that will disappear. Was fairly sure someone would downgrade before earnings. Tomorrow will be the real "tell". $250 was big resistance, that should act as support. If any employees at Tesla were mistreated or underpaid, it was likely the fault of a subcontractor that Tesla genuinely had no knowledge of. Recall a similar story was published last year, that alleged Tesla was paying workers $5 an hour, .that turned out to have many factual errors. Perhaps Moran was referring to this story that had a lot of factual errors?

It's also possible Moran has been getting
paid by a subcontractor or unrelated entity that works with UAW so the UAW could honestly state Moran isn't being paid by them.

Elon Musk apologizes for Tesla workers paid just $5 an hour by subcontractor

Elon Musk: Tesla paid $55 an hour to paint-factory builders


Also, there is this.

https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-Tesla-Motors-overworks-and-underpays-you

Elon Musk discredits Tesla employee who recently criticized company’s working conditions

Always be prepared for volatility, just in case!

 

[jhm]

Good point about the other usage of battery storage. A few more complications to consider: home solar/battery would reduce the demand on substation level transformer protection, as well as grid-level peaker/battery. Factoring in EV it's even more murky. Increased EV charging load could increase the demand for solar/battery, but if EVs can be enabled with V2H and/or V2G, they could decrease the demand at least for battery. So while conceptually we all see the benefit for solar/battery, and qualitatively we see a big market potential, quantitatively it's still very difficult to work out. One thing I do know is that Elon is pretty good at visualizing the big picture. So I'll just have to place faith in his master plan and hold on for the ride.

Right, you can flip this insight around and argue for a program wherein utilities encourage ratepayers to install batteries with our without solar. Green Mountain is actually providing financial incentives to do this. Particularly where the utility has some influence over the home batteries, it can be quite effective for the utility. So it is interesting that when Tesla repriced Powerwalls and Powerpacks, they made them much closer in price per kWh. This makes Tesla somewhat price agnostic to whether a utility should install big batteries or motivate installation of lots of small batteries. I do think that the small battery solutions are better for Tesla. Once you have aggregation of distributed batteries in play with the utility, it is a relatively small step to include adaptive EV charging into the aggregation scheme. So Tesla would be extremely well positioned to play this.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Got to give lots of credit to the driver, his solution to the
Problem might not have even crossed my mind until
It was too late.

How we know it's the driver for sure? Maybe there is a very deep shadow mode in the AP SW

 

[erthquake]

Anybody hear about this Powerpack installation by PG&E in Yuba County, CA:

Tesla plugs big batteries into PG&E’s electric grid

It's small, only 22 packs, and just went online at the beginning of this month. It's the first I've heard of this project. They are also collaborating on a Powerwall pilot project.

"PG&E and Tesla, for example, are also collaborating on a pilot project that uses Powerwall batteries in homes and businesses in the Bay Area. The amount of energy those scattered batteries can store will be equal to the amount stored at the Browns Valley substation, Della Penna said. PG&E will be able to study how both setups — one centralized, the other diffuse — affect the grid."

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This should scare people. Trump or some of his cronies are in my view very clearly manipulating the stock market.

In Trump land the NYTimes, and WSJ are "fake news" because they accurately report on what Trump says and report on the REAL WORLD implications of Trump's actions. In Trump's mind, Trump is infallible and omnipotent, and journalists are parasites who are spreading lies whenever a report conflicts with Trump's view of the world. A wise CEO doesn't do anything to move the needle on the stock price for their company, unless there is a serious disconnect between public perception and reality, in which case the CEO might hold a press conference to clarify things shareholders are confused about or don't understand, or might issue a press release clarifying things the public is misinterpreting.

A smart president, especially one who claims to be a supporter of "untethered capitalism" and a libertarian approach to managing the economy, doesn't attempt to "prop up his friends companies" to create the illusion that the economy is doing better because of his actions.

It is impossible for Trump to create the "utopia" he claims to have already created. He's destabalized many industries that were in good shape before, and has said nothing to explain specifically how his initiatives will be great for the economy, and the general public. The stock market has never been a good measure of the wellbeing of any economy. In my view, Trump just made it clear he is either directly or indirectly manipulating the stock market.

Remember what happened when China basically banned brokerage firms from allowing large sell orders? That didn't end well.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Anybody hear about this Powerpack installation by PG&E in Yuba County, CA:

Tesla plugs big batteries into PG&E’s electric grid

It's small, only 22 packs, and just went online at the beginning of this month. It's the first I've heard of this project. They are also collaborating on a Powerwall pilot project.

"PG&E and Tesla, for example, are also collaborating on a pilot project that uses Powerwall batteries in homes and businesses in the Bay Area. The amount of energy those scattered batteries can store will be equal to the amount stored at the Browns Valley substation, Della Penna said. PG&E will be able to study how both setups — one centralized, the other diffuse — affect the grid."

I don't remember the user who owns this doc here, but we should add this project to the list.

 

[neroden]

Enough of this about the square footage of an angel, I'm scared about the "plunge" in Tesla today. Anyone care to hold my hand?

Remember, you're in it for the long term. Right? Pay no attention to the local volatility.

A couple of weeks ago I was selling $250 Puts hoping that TSLA would drop back below $250 and I'd get assigned. Hmmph.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Remember, you're in it for the long term. Right? Pay no attention to the local volatility.

A couple of weeks ago I was selling $250 Puts hoping that TSLA would drop back below $250 and I'd get assigned. Hmmph.

I think you said that backwards. I hope you mean you were buying $250 puts. What is a couple of weeks ago? A few weeks ago Tesla was ~$225-$250.

 

[neroden]

I think you said that backwards. I hope you mean you were buying $250 puts. What is a couple of weeks ago? A few weeks ago Tesla was ~$225-$250.

No, no, I was selling puts, cash-secured, hoping I would get assigned (and end up with stock at a lower basis than I would by just buying stock). It's worked before. But instead the stock skyrocketed over $250 very quickly and very likely all I will get is the premium. Oh well.

I'm saying that this "plunge" is still to much higher levels than I expected the stock to reach by now.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

This should scare people. Trump or some of his cronies are in my view very clearly manipulating the stock market.

In Trump land the NYTimes, and WSJ are "fake news" because they accurately report on what Trump says and report on the REAL WORLD implications of Trump's actions. In Trump's mind, Trump is infallible and omnipotent, and journalists are parasites who are spreading lies whenever a report conflicts with Trump's view of the world. A wise CEO doesn't do anything to move the needle on the stock price for their company, unless there is a serious disconnect between public perception and reality, in which case the CEO might hold a press conference to clarify things shareholders are confused about or don't understand, or might issue a press release clarifying things the public is misinterpreting.

A smart president, especially one who claims to be a supporter of "untethered capitalism" and a libertarian approach to managing the economy, doesn't attempt to "prop up his friends companies" to create the illusion that the economy is doing better because of his actions.

It is impossible for Trump to create the "utopia" he claims to have already created. He's destabalized many industries that were in good shape before, and has said nothing to explain specifically how his initiatives will be great for the economy, and the general public. The stock market has never been a good measure of the wellbeing of any economy. In my view, Trump just made it clear he is either directly or indirectly manipulating the stock market.

Remember what happened when China basically banned brokerage firms from allowing large sell orders? That didn't end well.

View attachment 215131

What does this got to do with TSLA or Tesla? Let us know what your agenda is.

 

[neroden]

What does this got to do with TSLA or Tesla? Let us know what your agenda is.

Stocks are trading based on "the king's favor", which is a historically common pattern but not one which US or Western European investors have seen in their lifetimes or their parents' lifetimes. It's something to pay attention to.

 

[madodel]

Enough of this about the square footage of an angel, I'm scared about the "plunge" in Tesla today. Anyone care to hold my hand?

Are you new to investing? This is nothing yet. Wait until TSLA really takes off and then all the shorts, enemies and conmen will do everything they can to attack it and manipulate the price. If you believe that Tesla will achieve what it appears to be trying to achieve then stick with it. If not then sell so you can sleep at night. With Apple 10 - 15 years ago I got to the point I would go weeks without looking at the price because it would lose $30, $40, $50 in a day, then run back up over weeks. It was a roller coaster ride. Expect the same from TSLA. Rumours about Jobs being ill or dying were regular occurrences. When I first invested in AAPL the experts were still predicting its imminent demise. Then later iPod killers, then iPhone killers, then iPad killers were always around the corner. I think Tesla will continue to dominate. When we push $500/share maybe a 4 for 1 split and the run up all over again, but we are talking sticking with it for years. AAPL doesn't have the growth it once did but now I collect about as much in dividends in a year as my initial investment cost 17 years ago. Don't bet your house on any stock.

 

[sundaymorning]

Here's my take on the price action. More concrete information will be needed to break the ATH. If Tesla announces 50% growth for 2017, coupled with M3 being on time, then the stock may do this in March/April. For now, I'm hopeful we stay in the 250s going into ER. Sentiments have clearly changed due to the hit pieces going around today and the past couple days regarding UAW, UBS, etc... With Tesla, it won't matter if those pieces are "fake news" or untrue, it's called a "hit piece" for a reason..itll take some time for markets to digest ER, then it's off to the races again. For now, congrats to the bears short term. See you in a couple months. Still long here..

 

[AcesDealt]

How we know it's the driver for sure? Maybe there is a very deep shadow mode in the AP SW

Ok Tesla, analysis mode: Why did you just save that driver? How do you feel about your passenger? Do you ever question the nature of your reality?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I don't think I saw anyone post this yet. It's from this morning. The author got to personally interview Elon about The Boring Company, TBC (to be continued), Tunnels 'R Us, American Tunnels and Tubes, etc.

Elon Musk Is Really Boring

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Here's my take on the price action. More concrete information will be needed to break the ATH. If Tesla announces 50% growth for 2017, coupled with M3 being on time, then the stock may do this in March/April. For now, I'm hopeful we stay in the 250s going into ER. Sentiments have clearly changed due to the hit pieces going around today and the past couple days regarding UAW, UBS, etc... With Tesla, it won't matter if those pieces are "fake news" or untrue, it's called a "hit piece" for a reason..itll take some time for markets to digest ER, then it's off to the races again. For now, congrats to the bears short term. See you in a couple months. Still long here..

More or less my assessment as well. Without concrete information, the share price will bounce up and down randomly.

It's fun for shareholders to see a rise back to near ATH levels, but what rises quickly without much reason can also fall quickly without much reason.

The name of the game is still patience: waiting to see how the Gigafactory, Tesla Energy, and Model 3/Y work out in the end. I personally do not believe the answer will be apparent (meaning most people agree on success/failure) until the 2020-2021 timeframe.

 

[moe.salih]

I don't remember the user who owns this doc here, but we should add this project to the list.

I was hoping we get better reporting on this before I add it to the list. 22 Powerpacks and 0.5 MW doesn't make sense unless it's Powerpack 1.

 

[Intl Professor]

Thanks, guys. I feel better now although the after market was also "unfair" to Tesla.

My wife has a test soon in her course in history since 1500. I just read two chapters in her textbook. If you believe we've got problems, just think about the shock of the Enlightenment which took a mean turn on the Holy Roman Empire and Catholicism in the 14th and 15th centuries (think technology today), or the rise and fall of the Ottoman, Safavid (I'd never heard of it), and Mughal Empires. Sheesh, they went through a lot. Our pseudo leaders are comedians by comparison to some of those guys and their women.

There's just the threat of nuclear war leavening our mirth. Thank God the real military guys are working toward rules of engagement in Azerbaijan today.

 

[sundaymorning]

There's just the threat of nuclear war leavening our mirth. Thank God the real military guys are working toward rules of engagement in Azerbaijan today.

You know what's even a greater threat than nuclear war that's been threatening to wipe out every species on the face of this planet? And in the long run, probably will do just that? Yup, you guessed it, pollution and climate change. Frankly I'm more worried about this than nuclear war.