7.5 years from now or 120,000 miles my battery is out of warranty and is dead or serious degraded..

[Zextraterrestrial]

I've been debating with a friend if we should keep our FUSC.

While it doesn't make sense either way, the idea would be more entertaining if we could extend that value if we can replace the battery down the line.

I plan on upgrading my battery in a (long?) while. As it is, with 84K miles - I still get the same 250 rated I have been for the last ~3 years

So however long it takes to get to maybe 235 rated at 98% is when I might want to replace it with a 100kWhr new connectors + potentially altered firmware if necessary.

 

[MXWing]

By the time this comes up you will be too old to care about the slower 0-60 time.

That will be a sad day when I

-Develop an appreciation for Bingo
-Shop at Ross on Tuesday’s
-Wake up at 5:00am instead of going to bed at.
-Turn on chill mode

AND replace the Model 3 battery?

 

[ℬête Noire]

-Turn on chill mode

The day that happens I won't be in the Model 3. I'll be riding horizontal in the back of a jet black, modified Caddy/Lincoln.

 

[MP3Mike]

How was he able to get it for free?

Tesla "goodwilled" it. (Or more correctly they probably didn't realize it was out of warranty. Sean thought it was in warranty even when it was clearly pointed out to him that the warranty on the original Model S60s is different and that he was out of warranty.)

In the end I think Tesla did the right thing, and the warranty should probably be changed retroactively for the original Model S60s.

 

[StellarRat]

The average US driver goes about 12K a year. Assuming that you'll have 90% of capacity at 200K (based on Model S reports) that's about 16 years of driving for an average driver. So, I'm not even worried about the battery. At my age, there is a pretty fair chance I'll be gone before the car is. Personally, I think the Model 3 has a battery that's even more long lived than the S. That makes it essentially "immortal" for most drivers.

 

[WillK]

The need for a new battery has happened to a good number of Prius owners out of warranty.

I suspect that Tesla will charge you through the nose, just as Toyota does with its hybrid batteries. They don't want to sell you one. They want you to buy a new car.

Tesla Batteries don't degrade like some of the other batteries out there
https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/

Model X 90D “Deuxy” Achieves 300,000 Miles In Less Than Two Years

So the batteries should last but your mileage will drop. The motors are thought to be good for 500,00 Miles.

 

[adaptabl]

The average US driver goes about 12K a year. Assuming that you'll have 90% of capacity at 200K (based on Model S reports) that's about 16 years of driving for an average driver. So, I'm not even worried about the battery. At my age, there is a pretty fair chance I'll be gone before the car is. Personally, I think the Model 3 has a battery that's even more long lived than the S. That makes it essentially "immortal" for most drivers.

Time and temperature extremes may be as much of a factor as mileage. Until there is history on this it is all a guess.

 

[Runebane]

In 7.5 years, the battery packs will most likely be both better and cost a lot less than they cost today. So a 20k pack might only cost 12-15k, hopefully less, but I'm not that optimistic So, say in 8 years, my 3's battery needs to be changed. I'll have the option of a better and cheaper battery pack for 12-15k or to spend another 40-60k on a new tesla. Depending on how the car holds up, I'd probably go with the battery pack and try to get another 6-8 years out of it before buying a new one. But then again, I'm putting 120 miles a day on my 3 so the more I can squeeze out of it the better.

 

[Az_Rael]

What happens next?

I tried doing a search on the Model S forums but my Google-fu seems weak and couldn't locate satisfactory responses.

Could you buy a replacement pack AND would it ever make any sense? Tesla prefers a new sale as would anyone else.

We won't know for sure until someone crosses that bridge but I wonder if there is an S owner that could offer guidance in this regard?

Roadster Battery Pack purchases would not be a useful data set as the circulation is practically nil.

My hunch to cover Tesla's overhead, it could be $200/kW + inflation so that would put the cost at $15,000 + inflation despite Tesla being at $100/kW or possibly less at that point.

Assuming the above service is offered?


TLDR - is keeping my Model 3 for 10-15 years an exercise in disillusion?

Here is one real data point on current 3 replacement pack costs:

M3 $15K in damage from hitting a rock to the underbody?

The current price is $15k from Tesla.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

You can't find information because it doesn't happen. There have been many Model S and X owners who have "crossed that bridge". Model S and Model X batteries have gone hundreds of thousands of miles and have only minimal degradation.

I think there are many more pressing problems to worry about such as climate change. My "guidance" is to relax and enjoy your car... for many years.

OP: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You worry way too much.

The battery is under the FLOOR of the car.

By the time this is possibly an "issue," which isn't even likely in the first place (see Tesloop info below), there will many hundreds/thousands of salvage M3 battery packs available from M3's that have been totalled in accidents.

Jeesh, just relax, get some sleep, and enjoy the car!

**********************************************

Blog — Tesloop

 

[Lloyd]

I'm close to that 85K miles, 6 years old. Battery still charges to 254 miles. <5% degradation.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Believe there will be many options.

When your battery degrades to the point it no longer serves your needs, you can buy a new battery, and sell your old one for use for a home or business that will use it to time shift their electricity usage or as power backup in remote areas.

Have the weaker cells replaced to bring it back up to snuff.

Buy a used battery from the marketplace. There will be many thousands of Model 3s on the road by then and some will be wrecked. The battery pack, if still good, could simply replace your degraded one.

You might be able to buy a "booster" battery pack with new cells that will renew and extend your range.

Lots of options will be available by the time you have the need.

Worry...worry...worry.

 

[ecarfan]

AFAIK, Tesla has yet to ever replace a battery outside of warranty or the Roadster pack.

I had not seen any reports either, until I saw this post upthread:

Recently I have seen one case where a battery was replaced that was out of warranty. And Tesla "goodwilled" it, and even upgraded them from a 60 to a 75 without charging for the difference.

Impressive. And a rare case.

You would just scrap the car. The repair cost will exceed the value of the car. Similar to an ICE car needed a new engine outside of warranty.

Given the relatively high price of Teslas, even a 10 year old S/X may have enough residual value to make paying for a new battery worthwhile if a decade from now replacement batteries are a lot less costly than they currently are. And there is no way for us to accurately predict today what that cost will be, except to say it will certainly be less than it is now.

Aftermarket, but very pricey - and this is before arranging to get my car to North Carolina from CA.

That seems like a risky investment, in my opinion.

I think the most important point is the one made by some people upthread: we have good data on Model S cars with over 100K and even well over 200K miles on them and battery degradation is generally around 10%, meaning the car is still very usable.

It is a false assumption to believe that after 200K miles or so the battery will need to be replaced. That is in fact unlikely. On the other hand, after 200K miles ICE’s usually need to be replaced.

Given that properly designed EV motors almost certainly will outlast the average ICE and require essentially no maintenance, an EV is a much smarter long term investment.

 

[chronopc]

Here is one real data point on current 3 replacement pack costs:

M3 $15K in damage from hitting a rock to the underbody?

The current price is $15k from Tesla.

Does that include installation?

 

[GWord]

Discretionary battery upgrade from a 60kWh to 85kWh was $18k from Tesla back in 2013.

Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh

 

[Electroman]

... and that number has no relevance today 6 years later.

 

[tomas]

Like some who have replied, I have a 7 year model Model S. No evidence that battery has degraded at all since first 18 months when it lost ~5%. Which is normal. Why are members falsely assuming they will need a new battery after warranty expires? That is unfounded paranoia. All the evidence says they will not. 10 years... 15... keep on driving. If range goes down below your tolerance, THEN price out new pack vs new car. Nobody here has a crystal ball. I predict it will be ~$150 per kWh 5 years hence. FWIW, which ain’t much. I also predict it will only be worth replacing battery if you plan to drive car 5+ more years and want to avoid cost of new car. It will not be worth it for resale.

 

[mswlogo]

I have a feeling a 3rd party market will pop up with either referb, repair or non OEM new.

That said, I will watch my miles don’t exceed my years to maximize my warranty. And will buy any extended warranty offered down the line.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Why are members falsely assuming they will need a new battery after warranty expires?That is unfounded paranoia.

That would be unfounded paranoia. However that isn't what is happening here though. It isn't assuming the need, it is assuming there is a risk of a need.

To claiming otherwise is another way a stated that the battery failure rate is going to be zero. We know with the Model S & X that isn't true. I'd be quite surprised if there hasn't already been a Model 3 [infant death] failure.

 

[boriszima]

I have a feeling a 3rd party market will pop up with either referb, repair or non OEM new.

That said, I will watch my miles don’t exceed my years to maximize my warranty. And will buy any extended warranty offered down the line.

I concur. Telsa is making many model 3, where it makes sense now to have after marking parts. Assuming, Model Y will use the same battery pack/cells then even more to come. This can be a very lucrative business upgrading and replacing batteries. Of course one has to take into account programming new battery into MCU/CPU of the car.