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Are the Model X mules close to the final version?

Are the betas/mules we're seeing the final versions?


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Two comments on that
a) Tesla has the largest car factory in the world and is currently running it at about 20% of capacity - so there is an insane amount of unused space inside, a luxury that traditional car makers might not have
I brought that point up a couple of weeks ago, and someone shot me down with a claim that the whole building is in use, so an indoor test track was impossible. I didn't know one way or the other, so I didn't push the issue. Although that would answer why the final vehicle has not been seen.

I quickly skimmed the last 20 or so pages, and have to admit that after re-watching the latest video of the white wrapped X, something is really amiss where the rear panels meet the falcon doors. I don't know what to think anymore...

Yeah? Well the best defense is a good o-fense. You know who said that? Mel, the cook on "Alice".


(Reference The Frantics - Boot to the Head - 16. Ti Kwan Leep - YouTube ...)

I also learned I've apparently leaned on FlasherZ's rep button too much - "You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to FlasherZ again."

Thanks for that. I've heard that bit dozens of times over the last 20+ years, and it gets me every time. :biggrin:
 
We have a young Swedish lad who says he saw something (from a good distance away) that looked pretty different on his tour of the factory 6 months ago. He's kind of backpedaling now on this statement now though.

I'd say his most recent statements were wholesale repudiation of his earlier comments, and he admitted that he wrote his original posts on the matter to sound like he knew more than he actually knew.

Basically people here either got bamboozled or let their imaginations run wild. This is exactly what happened with Elon's tweets about last week's announcement.

Two comments on that
a) Tesla has the largest car factory in the world and is currently running it at about 20% of capacity - so there is an insane amount of unused space inside

Has anyone been to the factory recently? I recall recent reports that much of the "dark space" had been filled with in-house parts making. Remember that most automakers outsource this stuff, which frees up factory space.

I don't think we have seen what the final product looks like because of camo on the test vehicles, but I think it's far more likely than not that the exterior will not be radically different than what we've seen. The teaser photo and the leaked engineering schematic are proof of this. Details like character lines in the sheet metal and perhaps the nose cone are really all I expect to be different.
 
I brought that point up a couple of weeks ago, and someone shot me down with a claim that the whole building is in use, so an indoor test track was impossible. I didn't know one way or the other, so I didn't push the issue. Although that would answer why the final vehicle has not been seen.
At TMC Connect 14 we had a Tesla presenter who showed the retooling that was going on last July that took the "used" part of the building from about 10% to about 20%. He had maps and everything. I'm sure people posted pictures of his slides here somewhere. So no, they are nowhere NEAR using the whole building.
 
Two comments on that
a) Tesla has the largest car factory in the world and is currently running it at about 20% of capacity - so there is an insane amount of unused space inside, a luxury that traditional car makers might not have

Where did you get this "largest factory" bit?

From what I can find, the NUMMI plant they bought is 370 acres, with most of the manufacturing line in one 5.5 million square foot building.

That's big - but certainly not the largest.

Nissan's Smyrna plant has 5.9 million square feet on 884 acres.

Hyundai's Ulson plant, which some articles call the largest in the world, is 1227 acres.

However, the largest number I found in my google search was VW's Wolfsburg facility (also called the largest in some articles) - over 1600 acres (6.5 square kilometers.)
Walter
 
Basically people here either got bamboozled or let their imaginations run wild. This is exactly what happened with Elon's tweets about last week's announcement.

Haha. Because I'm definitely one of the "wild speculators" on this site and have been easily bamboozled multiple times. No, I think that because 1) no one (and I mean NO one) is talking, and 2) I assume that is because Elon has issued edicts about keeping a tight wrap on X information. I admit there are plenty of times I've heard bits and pieces about *stuff*. This is not one of those times. And I have tried. They're. Not. Talking. (Even knowing that I never betray trust.)

Tesla is keeping a very very tight wrap on the X. But sure, then they're out driving around in Fremont and Palo Alto at the same time showing the final version for people to get wild about. (They're not amateurs, they've had stuff spotted plenty of times before.)

(Why did I keep wanting to write 'bamboozed'? ... Tequila!)
 
Of course, people have recognized the prototype that looks like the Alpha and then filmed it - what if the new version is different enough that no one realizes it is even a Tesla....

Unlikely I know, especially in the vicinity of I-280 and Page Mill Road, but possible. Or maybe they are all in Arkansas or somewhere that there are very few Tesla owners.
 
bonnie's note about never betraying trust sounds quite obviously true and good, but such allegiance can have some implications on places like TMC, when talking with others who share no such connection with Tesla and thus may feel more free to really dig in. That said, I do welcome bonnie's note and that's more than we get from some people.

I think it is fair to note that there are various senior members (beyond bonnie and the latest messages) on TMC who hold the quite vocal opinion that we have not seen the final Model X yet and that's the extent they're willing to discuss that, so we don't know why they think that and to what extent of changes do they think will be. Often they simply avoid commenting on the details of the mule or speculating on the outcome. There has been some speculation on TMC if this could be due to some insider information or at least friendly TM connections that would result in reluctance to talk it through. That is all just speculation, of course.

Now, obviously technically we haven't seen the final Model X, but that is - as noted - a technicality. A technicality isn't what this line of thinking is saying or if it is, that would be misleading and disappointing. At least to me, talk of us not having seen the final Model X only makes sense if there is a significant difference between the 2015 mule(s) and the eventual end-result. If Tesla can manage a major surprise in the areas seen of the 2015 mule(s), they would certainly pull off something not many manufacturers often have. Cars are usually photographed in disguise but quite final form prior to reveal. (Notable areas not seen are the front and interior of course, so we aren't discussing those because obviously they remain a surprise.)

It seems to me one would have to have a pretty good reason to suggest a material difference between the final Model X and the low-disguise parts of the 2015 mule(s). What could that reason be? I'm all ears for ideas. But insider information certainly could be such a reason. Simply having personal connections at Tesla hindering conversation could also be a very human explanation for this silence. If I was friends with people at some company, I probably wouldn't debate said company as vigorously online. I might avoid the topic or get a little uncomfortable with it, for sure. There could be such people on TMC and they probably wouldn't feel free to acknowledge as much, which could result in puzzling comments.

Finally, I'm sure merely being protective of Tesla in general is motivation for some people to avoid toying with Tesla's secrets in public, simply because of idenitifying with Tesla. It too is an understandable reaction, even if unfortunate for the effectiveness of community information gathering.

I'm sure there are many more motivations for people, but I think the potential for these layers are good to acknowledge. I'm sure nobody means any malice or intent, ever, merely that subtle human realities might affect things a little.
 
I don't think we have seen what the final product looks like because of camo on the test vehicles, but I think it's far more likely than not that the exterior will not be radically different than what we've seen. The teaser photo and the leaked engineering schematic are proof of this. Details like character lines in the sheet metal and perhaps the nose cone are really all I expect to be different.

Heck, I don't think any of us think it is suddenly going to be a convertible or have six wheels and fins. I don't think the size or general shape CAN change much. It has to fit on the MS skateboard. It has to be as aerodynamic as possible and still not be bizarre, so the shape won't change much.

Styling of the snout and changing the sheet metal lines can drastically change the appearance.
 
Someone posted some CAD drawing while back. Tesla asked TMC to take it down, and they did. It only showed a small portion of the car, as I recall.

Correct. If I recall, I believe the same source claimed the nose cone of the prototype Model X would be gone in the final. The source may be of course an outsider with inside knowledge, thus may not know final decisions that can change over time - or the source may not have been credible at all. But, then again, it could have been somewhat credible since they had something Tesla wanted pulled.
 
Correct. If I recall, I believe the same source claimed the nose cone of the prototype Model X would be gone in the final. The source may be of course an outsider with inside knowledge, thus may not know final decisions that can change over time - or the source may not have been credible at all. But, then again, it could have been somewhat credible since they had something Tesla wanted pulled.

ahem...
 
Where is the Model X Test Mule? Is there one?

Haha. Because I'm definitely one of the "wild speculators" on this site and have been easily bamboozled multiple times. No, I think that because 1) no one (and I mean NO one) is talking, and 2) I assume that is because Elon has issued edicts about keeping a tight wrap on X information. I admit there are plenty of times I've heard bits and pieces about *stuff*. This is not one of those times. And I have tried. They're. Not. Talking. (Even knowing that I never betray trust.)

Tesla is keeping a very very tight wrap on the X. But sure, then they're out driving around in Fremont and Palo Alto at the same time showing the final version for people to get wild about. (They're not amateurs, they've had stuff spotted plenty of times before.)

(Why did I keep wanting to write 'bamboozed'? ... Tequila!)

Perhaps not you, but the person from Sweden riled up all sorts of speculation on a statement that turned out to be completely baseless.

Whether or not the Model X prototypes that have been photographed are actually close to the production model may be irrelevant in the end, because the camouflage wraps and other items prevent us from knowing what the final product really looks like, even if it is close to the real car underneath.

My only contention is that I'm 99% certain that the general shape and configuration of the car will not be a surprise, because of the official teaser photo, the leaked CAD schematic, and aerodynamic considerations.


Heck, I don't think any of us think it is suddenly going to be a convertible or have six wheels and fins. I don't think the size or general shape CAN change much. It has to fit on the MS skateboard. It has to be as aerodynamic as possible and still not be bizarre, so the shape won't change much.

Styling of the snout and changing the sheet metal lines can drastically change the appearance.

I can agree with this.

Bad minor details can break an otherwise decent design. The most egregious example being the 4th Generation Acura TL. It looked fine under camo when the spy photos were published in early 2008, but the final product was an utter disaster of incoherent stuff (beak grille, odd front wheel arches, tacky chrome).

I trust that Tesla will get the fine details right.
 
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felt reminiscent of the guy who talked too much and shared CAD drawings... that was 'disappeared' too.

Every time that situation is mentioned, I get a dose of humility because I recall how strongly my BS detector went off on him. Totally unbelievable to me. Yet, his nonsense was pulled, so.. I try not to take strong positions anymore. :redface:
 
I'm going to agree with @bonnie, @gavine, @vigge50, etc. that the Model-X is going to look significantly different than what we have seen. It would seem to me that Tesla is employing multiple disguising techniques for the road testing (e.g. fake body panels, window coverings, wrapping nose cone, etc.) to achieve a look that won't be anything like the completed model. I also firmly believe that the spotted models are indeed the 30 beta models that will end up looking 99% like the production version, its just that they've been camouflaged. That camo won't affect the road testing they need to do (e.g. suspension & frame testing).

I do not think that is what most of those people are saying, though, bonnie included.

It is one thing to think beta models spotted look 99% like production, just camouflaged. But that is the normal story with car companies. bonnie was ready to bet against it.

That's quite different from saying we haven't seen the final version driven around town yet, which is what I believe is the argument.

Which is it - do you guys think we have seen the (near) final version under camo - or is there some significantly different version being hidden somewhere still that has not been driven in public at all yet?
 
I do not think that is what most of those people are saying, though, bonnie included.

It is one thing to think beta models spotted look 99% like production, just camouflaged. But that is the normal story with car companies. bonnie was ready to bet against it.

That's quite different from saying we haven't seen the final version driven around town yet, which is what I believe is the argument.

Which is it - do you guys think we have seen the (near) final version under camo - or is there some significantly different version being hidden somewhere still that has not been driven in public at all yet?

Agree 100 percent. I am firmly in the "there will be some detail surprises, but the models spotted around town are near final under camouflage" camp.