Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[nursebee]

My news feed this am says GOLDMAN maintains sell rating expecting Q1 #s to disappoint.

Why the H did they increase their stake by 25% last quarter then?

This is rigged!

 

[neroden]

My news feed this am says GOLDMAN maintains sell rating expecting Q1 #s to disappoint.

Why the H did they increase their stake by 25% last quarter then?

This is rigged!

Official line is that Goldman analysts are totally separate from Goldman proprietary traders.

Statistical evidence is that when analysts downgrade, traders buy and when analysts upgrade, traders sell. So they're probably manipulating the market for their own benefit

There were peer-reviewed papers on this, specifically with reference to Goldman Sachs. I'm not going to spend the effort to dig up the citations. Look 'em up yourself.

 

[ggr]

This one is factual, just completely stupid:
Tesla crashes with bus full of inmates downtown

Don't bother clicking, the title tells you everything.

 

[PeterK]

Here's an incredibly slanted piece from the Washington Post. Nearly all of the comments call it out as such. My favorite is the first:

Aaawwwhhhh!!!!
BEZOS IS JEALOUS!!!

Well, every Mozart must have his Salieri...​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...lon-musk-hopes-will-distract-everything-else/

 

[winfield100]

Here's an incredibly slanted piece from the Washington Post. Nearly all of the comments call it out as such. My favorite is the first:

Aaawwwhhhh!!!!
BEZOS IS JEALOUS!!!

Well, every Mozart must have his Salieri...​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...lon-musk-hopes-will-distract-everything-else/

So go online and rebut the “alternative facts”

 

[PeterK]

So go online and rebut the “alternative facts”

Already did, along with many others. Unfortunately for every person who reads the comments, there are likely hundreds who read the article and thousands who read only the headline...

 

[Sudre]

I wonder if anything like this could be used to attack companies like Tesla?

A Russian 'troll slayer' went undercover at a troll factory and found that hundreds of Russians were working as paid trolls in rotating shifts

 

[neroden]

Zach Shahan at Cleantechnica said that he saw clear evidence of Russian trolls at his site years *before* the truth about the Russian "troll factories" (specifically Prigozhin's) came out. (They have a different distinctive pattern from homegrown trolls -- you can spot their grammar patterns. They also have a different pattern from unpaid trolls -- they are much more rote and repetitive. It's just a job.)

Since they're trolling cleantech websites with ancient, debunked attacks on solar power, wind power, and EVs, yes, of course it's being used to attack Tesla.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I find one major problem with the media today is how much time journalists spend on Twitter and consequently how influenced they are by the Twitter narrative. The issues the media writes about heavily influence what the public most cares about. The issues Twitter users write about heavily influences what journalists most care about. Also journalists are increasingly relying on Twitter to provide a significant % of their sources for news stories (why wouldn't they accept the stories handed to them). Unfortunately the Twitter universe is saturated with people and organisations trying to manipulate the narrative on a particular issue for financial gain. The Twitter universe is not nearly representative of public opinion or what the public should care about, it is heavily skewed by private propaganda (whether that is individuals, troll factories, corporates or PR companies). But journalists live in this universe and they provide these propagandists a direct channel to the public via a supposedly independent and balanced medium. Whether or not the ultimate reports are factually accurate, what journalists have chosen to write about is heavily skewed to what propagandists want them to write about and not to what actually matters.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Byline: Linette Lopez

 

[neroden]

Linette Lopez is now guilty of libel, and I suggest Musk prosecute her for it. She's flat out claiming that Musk's true statements are false.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I find one major problem with the media today is how much time journalists spend on Twitter and consequently how influenced they are by the Twitter narrative. The issues the media writes about heavily influence what the public most cares about. The issues Twitter users write about heavily influences what journalists most care about. Also journalists are increasingly relying on Twitter to provide a significant % of their sources for news stories (why wouldn't they accept the stories handed to them). Unfortunately the Twitter universe is saturated with people and organisations trying to manipulate the narrative on a particular issue for financial gain. The Twitter universe is not nearly representative of public opinion or what the public should care about, it is heavily skewed by private propaganda (whether that is individuals, troll factories, corporates or PR companies). But journalists live in this universe and they provide these propagandists a direct channel to the public via a supposedly independent and balanced medium. Whether or not the ultimate reports are factually accurate, what journalists have chosen to write about is heavily skewed to what propagandists want them to write about and not to what actually matters.

I agree with all you wrote. I wonder, though, whether this situation is better or worse than before.

Before Twitter, journalists used to live in the much smaller universe of personal contacts, self-motivated leakers, celebrity publicists, government and corporate press bureaus, and PR outfits of every kind, without the public knowing who all these people were. All those entities also influenced journalists, only they stayed mostly in the shadows. They are still hard at work today, but now they have to compete with everybody willing to tweet @journalists, so at least more of it is in the open. It also allows us to challenge their sources and motives publicly, like @SPadival, @ValueAnalyst, and many, many others are doing to pretty good effect.

That is, after all, how NYT "journalist" David Gelles displayed his depravity on Twitter for all to see when he bragged about page views, right after publishing his interview with "a deeply emotional Mr. Musk", in which "the brash Silicon Valley billionaire" let his tears flow while confessing that "the worst is over from a Tesla operational standpoint [...], but from a personal pain standpoint, the worst is yet to come".

 

[CatB]

Anybody know anything about this article? I feel this argument has been debunked tons of times, but IFO Institute appears legit (per cursory google searches and Wikipedia):
The Brussels Times - Electric vehicles emit more CO2 than diesel ones, German study shows

 

[durkie]

Anybody know anything about this article? I feel this argument has been debunked tons of times, but IFO Institute appears legit (per cursory google searches and Wikipedia):
The Brussels Times - Electric vehicles emit more CO2 than diesel ones, German study shows

Their assumptions about battery life seem a bit strange: lifetime of 10 years and traveling 15000 km a year which sounds like they expect the car to accumulate 150000 km/93000 mi over its lifetime, which seems quite low to me. I'd expect at least three times the mileage on average, but I'm in the US.

Given that, you amortize the CO2 cost over much less distance, so it inflates your g CO2/km number.

It is also particular to the German energy mix, which I believe became much more coal heavy in response to Fukushima.

 

[jeewee3000]

Their assumptions about battery life seem a bit strange: lifetime of 10 years and traveling 15000 km a year which sounds like they expect the car to accumulate 150000 km/93000 mi over its lifetime, which seems quite low to me. I'd expect at least three times the mileage on average, but I'm in the US.

Given that, you amortize the CO2 cost over much less distance, so it inflates your g CO2/km number.

This.

Not only are the used averages unrealistic, the study implies that a 10 year old BEV-battery with 150.000 km on the odometre is simply thrown away.

Tesla recycles old battery packs to extract the valuable materials as much as possible, reducing the need to mine/refine new materials for future batteries. At scale, this vastly reduces the C02 emitted to produce BEV's.

How surprising though: a German study about BEV's vs ICE's favoring ICE vehicles? Who would have thought?

 

[wdolson]

This is another of those studies that cherry picks the data to make EVs look the worse and overlooks a lot of hidden things in ICE vehicles. When one of these things came around a year or so back I did some research into how much electricity is required to refine each gallon of gasoline (petrol). The numbers out there vary quite a bit, and the amount of energy required varies depending on the grade of crude oil. Most of the crude we refine today is lower quality which requires more energy to refine.

I came up with an average somewhere around 8 KWh of electricity per gallon of gasoline (some estimates are closer to 12). That's enough to drive a Model S about 25 miles. Some crude is also lost in the refining process for each barrel of oil in (42 gallons), you get about 20 gallons of gasoline and 11 gallons of low sulfur fuel oil which can be diesel, jet fuel, or heating oil. You get some other products out of a barrel like tar for paving and some chemicals used in other industries, but several gallons are lost.

The CO2 footprint manufacturing ICE and EVs is not all that different. Yes there are elements used in li-ion batteries that are not used ICE, but the bulk of both cars are steel, aluminum, and plastic. Both an ICE engine and transmission are vastly complex machines that require fairly high grades of steel with tremendous amounts of machining which takes a lot of energy to make those parts.

Also the core energy source to run an EV can range from coal to sunlight or wind, but the diesel car is always going to burn diesel. My car runs 100% on hydro because I live near a large dam.

A large percentage of all the materials in cars have been recycled for at least 50 years. Li-ion batteries are no exception. Most will be recycled at their end of life, just like most of the rest of cars are. It's just the recycling process for steel is different than for li-ion batteries.

There is a chart out there on the net in many places that shows the efficiency between EVs and fuel cell cars, but it demonstrates the high efficiency of EVs from the power generation to the turning wheels on the road. Stationary power plants burning fossil fuels are about twice as efficient as cars burning them, so pump the fossil fuel into a power plant, then charge and electric car and your ahead. From the power plant to turning the wheels is around 60 or 65% with an EV. I believe coal power plants are about 40% efficient and natural gas is around 60%. So getting your electricity from a coal powered plant, and taking in all the losses from the lump of coal to turning your car's wheels is about 24%.

I wish there was a similar chart showing the inefficiencies of pumping oil out of the ground, sending it to a refinery, the refinery losses, then the losses getting to a gas station and finally put in your car and turning wheels. Considering ICE are around 15-20% efficient just burning what's in the tank, with all the losses between the oil field and your tank factored in, you're probably down to about 5% efficiency. Almost certainly below 10%.

 

[LCR1]

Their assumptions about battery life seem a bit strange: lifetime of 10 years and traveling 15000 km a year which sounds like they expect the car to accumulate 150000 km/93000 mi over its lifetime, which seems quite low to me. I'd expect at least three times the mileage on average, but I'm in the US.

Given that, you amortize the CO2 cost over much less distance, so it inflates your g CO2/km number.

It is also particular to the German energy mix, which I believe became much more coal heavy in response to Fukushima.

Germany is 38% renewable and an additional 12% Nuclear (50%.) Compared to the US 17% Renewable and 20% Nuclear (37%)

 

[Sudre]

I had a simple question after reading this article. It claims, “Elon Musk suggested last week that a capital raise could be imminent”. This may be true. I did not listen to the entire call. I understood after the call (the bits I heard) that Tesla is not ruling out a cap raise but I heard nothing that indicated it was imminent. Altho I will admit anytime Elon hints at a cap raise it does happen fairly soon.


Tesla says may seek alternative financing sources - Reuters

 

[mongo]

I had a simple question after reading this article. It claims, “Elon Musk suggested last week that a capital raise could be imminent”. This may be true. I did not listen to the entire call. I understood after the call (the bits I heard) that Tesla is not ruling out a cap raise but I heard nothing that indicated it was imminent. Altho I will admit anytime Elon hints at a cap raise it does happen fairly soon.


Tesla says may seek alternative financing sources - Reuters

That's incorrect quoting in the articles Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

Toni Sacconaghi -- Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. -- Analyst

Yes, thank you. Elon, I was wondering if you could talk about this whole notion of raising capital for about the last year, you sort of shooed it as almost an evil thing, and I think a lot of investors believe that the Company might be better served and its growth aspirations if it did raise capital or had a stronger cash base. And given that you used up about $2 billion worth of cash in the quarter, aren't you potentially trying to go through a very thin space while trying to grow quickly and be self-funding, which, quite frankly, may be unrealistic. So, why not raise capital? And why do you view that as something that Tesla shouldn't do, or wouldn't do? And I have a follow-up, please.

Elon R. Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I mean, I don't think raising capital should be substitute for making the Company operate more effectively. So that -- in that sense, I think it's just -- it's important to have strong financial discipline of the Company and just to make sure we don't have extraneous expenses and that we're just being frugal with capital. If we keep raising capital every time, then it just take -- if we now have the forcing function for improving the fundamental operation of the business. So, I think it is healthy to be on a Spartan diet for a while. At this point, I do think there are -- it is similar to raising capital. That's a -- but this is sort of probably about the right timing, but yeah.

Toni Sacconaghi -- Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. -- Analyst

So, does that mean that investors should expect the capital raise in the near- to medium-term? And I hear you on the force and constraint, but I mean, growth does eat cash, especially in a capital-intensive business, and if you really do believe you have a first mover advantage, why wouldn't you want to push it as quickly as possible even if it meant raising capital in the short- term?

Elon R. Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. First of all, I'll just say that I don't think that capital has been constraint on our growth thus far. And if I thought there was a final constraint on growth, we would have raised capital before now. But I think it is very important as the Company scales to make sure we are on a solid foundation and that we're -- we have the appropriate financial discipline throughout the Company and are spending money very efficiently. At this point, I think we are doing that, but there is more work to do. And Tesla today is far more efficiently operating organization than it was a year ago. We've made dramatic improvements across the board. And so, I think there is merit to the idea of raising capital at this point.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Just to add to that, the journey we've been on for the last 12 months to 18 months on being more efficient and how we spend money has really changed the culture inside the Company. It enabled us to accelerate a number of cost reductions on the COGS side of our products and then make improvements in operating expenses as well. And then as we look forward to capital investments for Giga Shanghai and Model Y and ultimately our European facility, our CapEx per unit of capacity has come down significantly through the work of the team here. So, I think it has been a very productive journey for us.

Elon R. Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

And technically, we did raise some big capital in China for the Shanghai Giga on the order of $500 million. So, that -- we want to make sure that we don't have to grow upon global capitals fund under the Shanghai factory.

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations

Thank you. So let's go to the next question, please.

 

[colettimj]

I had a simple question after reading this article. It claims, “Elon Musk suggested last week that a capital raise could be imminent”. This may be true. I did not listen to the entire call. I understood after the call (the bits I heard) that Tesla is not ruling out a cap raise but I heard nothing that indicated it was imminent. Altho I will admit anytime Elon hints at a cap raise it does happen fairly soon.


Tesla says may seek alternative financing sources - Reuters

Have a look at the earnings call transcript. You can search that page for "raise" to see what was asked and Elon's response.