Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Okay back to stats.

I need some info from people who have got their cars if its available.
I'm after the difference between ship docking date and delivery date so I can get a range (and maybe rough average).

Then I can put together a chart like this:
1656759036488.png


Dont think the colours will survive the copy paste though.

I've estimated 14 days, very happy to have that refined (or I can do a range easily enough)
 
  • Like
Reactions: penn_
For now (until more Delivery Dates and refined pre shipping and post shipping work refinements) this is what I have:

1656761332672.png


Note: Candidate Vessels are constrained by (1) Build Date + Pre Shipping Work < Shanghai Date for the Vessel and (2) Delivery Period for Vessel (Port Kembla Date + Post Shipping Delivery Work days) Must be within Delivery Period (or close (7d) for the yellow ones)

Green is good, yellow/amber potential but less likely, Red is not a fit (or Telsa has some dates wrong ;) )


I wont post this often (only when we can refine some data - new delivery dates etc)
 
Last edited:
List of VINs and Delivery Date Ranges so far.
Only update today is @baktoid's delivery date and an indicator to show it is ordered by order date (even though it kinda looks like its ordered by Model)

#UsernameOrder Date ▼ModelExteriorInteriorVIN DateDelivery DateLocation
1​
MadFruit28/11/2021M3 LRBlackWhite28/06/20228 - 18 AugustMelbourne
2​
Breezy_19741/12/2021M3 LRWhiteBlack30/06/20228 - 18 AugustMelbourne
3​
o'leary2/12/2021M3 LR??28/06/2022
4​
Abraxas3/12/2021M3 LRWhiteBlack28/06/20229 - 19 AugustMelbourne
5​
PipPup3/12/2021M3 LRWhiteBlack28/06/202211 - 21 AugustSydney
6​
ShireSparkles4/12/2021M3 LRWhiteBlack28/06/20228 - 18 AugustSydney
7​
Nouche4/12/2021M3 LR??28/06/202219 AugustBrisbane
8​
Wombat_T13/01/2022M3 RWDWhiteWhite28/06/20229 - 19 AugustSydney
9​
mjs202215/01/2022M3 RWDWhiteBlack28/06/20229 - 19 AugustSydney
10​
m3melb16/01/2022M3 RWDBlackBlack28/06/2022
11​
tubbyx716/01/2022M3 RWDRedWhite28/06/2022
12​
MonsterRat17/01/2022M3 RWDWhiteWhite29/06/2022
13​
thegreenguy17/01/2022M3 RWDMidnight SilverWhite30/06/2022
14​
baktoid18/01/2022M3 RWDBlueBlack30/06/20229 - 19 AugustBrisbane
 
  • Like
Reactions: *Sparkles*
For now (until more Delivery Dates and refined pre shipping and post shipping work refinements) this is what I have:

View attachment 823886

Note: Candidate Vessels are constrained by (1) Build Date + Pre Shipping Work < Shanghai Date for the Vessel and (2) Delivery Period for Vessel (Port Kembla Date + Post Shipping Delivery Work days) Must be within Delivery Period (or close (7d) for the yellow ones)

Green is good, yellow/amber potential but unlikely, Red is not a fit (or Telsa has some dates wrong ;) )


I wont post this often (only when we can refine some data - new delivery dates etc)
Thanks for all your hard work, @Ormaus
 
Thanks for all your hard work, @Ormaus
Data, process and behaviour analysis is what I do :)

This is all good practise for when I get my VIN.

Speaking of which, the above should be based on build date rather than VIN date but until the invoices some in (I suspect it may have build date in there??) and we can get some actual build dates we can (temporarily) substitute with VIN date (not accurate but meh, close enough for TMC speculation)
 
Data, process and behaviour analysis is what I do :)

This is all good practise for when I get my VIN.

Speaking of which, the above should be based on build date rather than VIN date but until the invoices some in (I suspect it may have build date in there??) and we can get some actual build dates we can (temporarily) substitute with VIN date (not accurate but meh, close enough for TMC speculation)
Note getting a good range for the post delivery work (difference between ship arrival date and customer delivery date) is important as if the 14 days comes down to 4 days as an example it suddenly brings Viking Passama and Morning Crystal into the Good (Green) Range.
 
Note getting a good range for the post delivery work (difference between ship arrival date and customer delivery date) is important as if the 14 days comes down to 4 days as an example it suddenly brings Viking Passama and Morning Crystal into the Good (Green) Range.
Doesn’t vary greatly depending on your location? ie Sydney quite short, Perth much longer?
 
  • Like
Reactions: trippa and Ormaus
All important data points and can help constrain the candidate ships.
It gets complicated when you try to calculate for all of Australia, because a lot of it comes down to "it depends" (e.g. Perth cars sometimes get transferred onto a different ship in different ports). However to keep it simple, lets stick to Mel-Syd-Bne.

Ship arrives in Port Kembla, it then typically takes around 1-3 days for the cars to be processed. Then it depends on how quickly they can book the car carriers (when your car gets booked on a carrier to leave the port this triggers the SMS to book your delivery slot as they know when it's expected to arrive at the Tesla delivery centre), typically the cars start arriving in Tesla delivery centres around 4-20 days after processing. I've been in the position of having people posting photos of them and their new car on here and still waiting for the SMS as my car is at the back of the queue to leave Port Kembla.
I hope this is helpful. For those that have a VIN and want more certainty, I'd suggest signing up for Vedaprime, it just takes all the guess work out of it.