OK, I'll bite. Maybe 100,000 M3 will get full rebate, another 100,000 partial, so you figure Chevy will sell only 10k to 20k Bolts?
You seem to be forgetting or ignoring the one to two quarters of unlimited numbers after the 200k car at full rebate. If Tesla manages a fast ramp to production and games the timing on the 200k car, they could ram a lot of cars through those six months...
Having said that, the only reason ago few Bolt owners may get a rebate is because so many Volt owners are, so I'm not sure the 10:1 logic is relevant or useful.