Coronavirus

[lascavarian]

Really depends on how it is rolled out. If through normal distribution channels then senior facilities will be an enormous challenge b/c they don't have storage facilities for the Pfizer product.

Plus given the storage conditions, there will need to be specialized training for the nurses / techs to handle -70C equipment, nitrogen tanks, thaw procedures, etc. Plus issues with the commercial distribution supply chain - Pfizer doesn't sell to nursing home X, Pfizer sells to McKesson (example) who actual stores, sells, ships to customers.

Of course there are ways to do it more quickly & efficiently, but that leadership that is actually concerned with the lives of their citizens.

There is tech to help with distribution tracking and temp monitoring in a general sense.

LPWAN and tech like LoRa allow near continuous monitoring of packages at modest expense. You can know the location and condition (temp, hum, shock etc) of packages as you need it. This is new but is available as I understand it.

Long Range Wireless IoT | 2019 Guide to LoRa and Other LPWAN Technologies

 

[Ocelot]

Current estimates are in the 60-70% range

yes. In general, the more infectious the pathogen, the higher percentage you need vaccinated, unless of course it has super high And quick mortality.

If the vaccine is 90% effective and 7/10 take it, leaves you with 63 per cent coverage of population plus those with natural immunity which we still don’t know how long that lasts for.

 

[Causalien]

Disagree because as a famous man once sang:

"if we couldn't laugh we would all go insane"

Kind of hard to joke around nowadays in this politically correct climate. People get offended at the most mundane things and words gets repurposed to some extremist lingo to mean either racist or sexist stuff.

 

[madodel]

Information for Laboratories about Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Has this been discussed? This is the first I'm hearing about a multi-virus PCR test. Great to see with Flu season here, but I'm also seeing comments elsewhere purporting COVID19 is same as the Flu because some nurse told them it's the same test.

 

[wdolson]

yes. In general, the more infectious the pathogen, the higher percentage you need vaccinated, unless of course it has super high And quick mortality.

If the vaccine is 90% effective and 7/10 take it, leaves you with 63 per cent coverage of population plus those with natural immunity which we still don’t know how long that lasts for.

This virus is fairly closely related to SARS and a study of SARS survivors and COVID-19 found that not a single person in the study who had SARS 17 years ago has reported getting COVID-19 and all still show signs of T-cell immunity. I was going to a therapist who got an experimental SARS vaccine when he was in the Army (about a quarter of his unit got sick but he didn't). He has been exposed to COVID-19 in close proximity to someone hours before they started showing symptoms and he never had the slightest symptom.

SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 are all part of one branch of the coronavirus family and the type that causes nothing more serious than cold symptoms is another branch (with several members). The two are sort of like the car family, one leg leads to house cats and the other to tigers and cougars.

Long term immunity for the weaker branch does not seem to be permanent, but it's possible that immunity among the more deadly branch might be. Which is a good thing if true.

The media doesn't seem to understand the difference between B-cell and T-cell immunity and there has been a lot of hair on fire about B-cell immunity (which is easy to test for) fading, but it should fade away with time. You probably still have T-cell immunity to most if not all the vaccinations you got as a kid. If you were exposed to polio or rubella today, it's doubtful you would get it. However your body has no B-cells for any of those diseases floating around because there is no need for them.

 

[Dr. J]

Huh?

Jimmy Buffett Takes Aim at Republicans During Florida Democratic Rally

You should have wagered before telling him.

 

[TEG]

You should have wagered before telling him.

Yeah, I had pondered that. But trying to minimize the off-topic discussion...

 

[Norbert]

Keeping track: 7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46%
Oct 24th: + 62%
Oct 26th: + 70%
Oct 28th: + 81%
Nov 2nd: + 107%
Nov 5th: + 131%
Nov 7th: + 156%
Nov 12th: + 224% (today). This is 3.24x the Sept 27th value. (Testing has increased less than 50% approx)

Since this value is now so large that it is out of any context, the values are not very informative anymore.
The death rate, after some delay, is now following the rise, so I will start keeping track of it instead.

The 7 day average of daily deaths, compared to Oct 11th: (1 month ago)
Nov 12th: + 49%

Alan hasn't posted from @covid19tracking for a while. The 7-day average for "Currently Hospitalized" is now above 60,000, higher than at any time this year before, even higher than the initial peak April/May.

 

[wdolson]

Keeping track: 7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46%
Oct 24th: + 62%
Oct 26th: + 70%
Oct 28th: + 81%
Nov 2nd: + 107%
Nov 5th: + 131%
Nov 7th: + 156%
Nov 12th: + 224% (today). This is 3.24x the Sept 27th value. (Testing has increased less than 50% approx)

Since this value is now so large that it is out of any context, the values are not very informative anymore.
The death rate, after some delay, is now following the rise, so I will start keeping track of it instead.

The 7 day average of daily deaths, compared to Oct 11th: (1 month ago)
Nov 12th: + 49%

Alan hasn't posted from @covid19tracking for a while. The 7-day average for "Currently Hospitalized" is now above 60,000, higher than at any time this year before, even higher than the initial peak April/May.

In short, we're in deep kim chi

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Alan hasn't posted from @covid19tracking for a while.

Yeah I have given up. It is pretty clear what is going on. As expected, all of the COVID deniers were wrong. Cannot keep them down, though:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472?s=21

Casedemic!!!

(No, there is no casedemic; rapid antigen tests are tracked separately from cases in most states. And the above result is not surprising. I am not sure why Elon is even getting tested. I hope he doesn’t have coronavirus! He’s at risk!)

Uhh...that’s not good. If you are taking proper precautions you should not have a cold. That’s one of the few good things about 2020.

The key to effectively disseminating misinformation is to never, ever stop spreading it:

Obviously, the main reason hospitals in the Midwest are under pressure is because everyone is making so much g**d**m money off this awesome pandemic:

See, this whole COVID scam thing was all part of an elaborate plan to tank Tesla’s stock price tomorrow. Can’t trust those short sellers.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It would be impossible for Elon to get COVID. He got it back in January like everyone else.

 

[cwerdna]

California records 1 million coronavirus cases

 

[Norbert]

Yeah I have given up. It is pretty clear what is going on. As expected, all of the COVID deniers were wrong. Cannot keep them down, though:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472?s=21

If you have two tests positive and two negative, isn't a simple possibility that the antigen level is right at the detection threshold?
Asking for a friend...

 

[Dave EV]

If you have two tests positive and two negative, isn't a simple possibility that the antigen level is right at the detection threshold?
Asking for a friend...

That would be my assumption. The antigen test is more likely to generate a false negative than a false positive, especially two false positives. In any case, if the rapid test comes back positive, one should expect to get the PCR test done and in the meantime quarantine. Given that he has cold symptoms, though, it's highly likely he has it.

 

[cwerdna]

SeaDream 1: five passengers test positive for Covid-19 on Caribbean cruise ship

One of the first cruise ships to ply through Caribbean waters since the pandemic began ended its trip early after five passengers tested positive for Covid-19.

The SeaDream is carrying 53 passengers and 66 crew, with the majority of passengers hailing from the US, according to Sue Bryant, a cruise ship reporter who is aboard the ship.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Personally, I kinda like Elon being >50% "wrong" on something. Makes me question my fanboy tendencies on literally everything else.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If you have two tests positive and two negative, isn't a simple possibility that the antigen level is right at the detection threshold?
Asking for a friend...

That would be my assumption. The antigen test is more likely to generate a false negative than a false positive, especially two false positives. In any case, if the rapid test comes back positive, one should expect to get the PCR test done and in the meantime quarantine. Given that he has cold symptoms, though, it's highly likely he has it.

Yes, agreed, it is highly likely that he has it. For such an “expert” on COVID, it’s mind-boggling to me that he can’t distinguish between a false positive and a test that is just insufficiently sensitive. And in that context, it’s funny that he’s still pushing the false positive narrative (when the evidence from his specific case suggests that his case is probably being undercounted atm).

Sounds like he should have the PCR results tonight sometime.

We can only hope that Elon’s propensity for a re-evaluation and adjustment of his priors is greater than Mr. Trump’s, though I fear he would have to have a fairly severe case in order for him to change.

At 48, with Elon apparently in generally good health, chance of death is probably around 1 in 1000. Might be safer than FSD. Not clear whether any advanced treatments (which Elon would have access to presumably) are particularly effective.

 

[Big Earl]

SeaDream 1: five passengers test positive for Covid-19 on Caribbean cruise ship

Now up to 6. The first 5 were from the same traveling party. All passengers were tested twice prior to boarding. Follow @cruiselog on Twitter, as he is a passenger on the ship and providing regular updates.

It’s astounding that cruise lines are choosing to sail now, at the highest peak to-date.

 

[JRP3]

At 48, with Elon apparently in generally good health, chance of death is probably around 1 in 1000.

He appears to have excessive abdominal fat, likely does zero cardio or much of any type of exercise, doesn't get enough rest, and is likely under a lot of stress much of the time. I'd consider him to be in the higher risk category.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He appears to have excessive abdominal fat, likely does zero cardio or much of any type of exercise, doesn't get enough rest, and is likely under a lot of stress much of the time. I'd consider him to be in the higher risk category.

2016 Elon..... maybe, but there's considerably less stress now. He's more of a rich kid playing with model rockets today.

At his age and mediocre health without major underlying issues, youd think he'd know he's almost exactly on the fence between mildly susceptible and safe. His results are entirely appropriate from that kind of test.