Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

South Korea also tested pro-actively. Their crude rate was a bit above 0.5% early on, now it's 1.24%. Their two week lag rate is ~1.5%. Like Germany, their two week lag rate was 10% early on, despite proactive testing they had missed a ton of cases in that sect.

It's safe to take Korean stats as a mature dataset at this point, right? They've been stable for more than a week and it's safe to say deaths have caught up to cases making the 1.24% mortality rate reliable. These guys tested more broadly and thoroughly than anyone by far.

Now....in a country of 51M people, do we honestly think only 8,961 people have contracted cv? Step back and take a look at Korea's 111 total deaths and tell me the true mortality rate of this thing won't be .2% or lower when all is said and done.

Doctors are estimating 40+% of people will contract this virus(similar to the 20-30% that got SARS). If that's even remotely close to true and mortality is over 1%, why are there only 111 deaths in Korea? How can anywhere hit heavily by this, regardless of response or quarantine, have only 111 deaths if mortality is so high?

Perhaps I'm making a glaring logic error as well?

 

[N5329K]

Amazing really that Dr. Fauci has not quit
Dr Anthony Fauci counters Trump claims amid crisis: 'I just want to get the facts out'

Honey badger don't care.
Robin

 

[X Fan]

Some sobering stats from USA's leading hot spot, NYC:

Of the 12,339 cases as of Monday morning-
Ages of 18-44: 46% ...they are just 40% of city's population
Ages 45 to 64: 33%
Ages 65 to 74: 11%,
75 and over: 8%
ages 0-17: 3%.

Men represent the majority of city cases at 57 percent.

As of Sunday morning, 34 of the city’s 63 deaths from the coronavirus were patients over age 75.
The remaining 29 were between ages 45 and 74.
Men accounted for 43 of the fatalities while women made up the other 20.

 

[Singuy]

The 1200+ under 54 who have died in the US from it would disagree. We are seeing some perfectly healthy under 40's succumbing to this. You're burying your head in the sand to what is really happening.

Okay so here's the thing about all this.

After listening to the Governor of NY and seeing truly what type of people this virus is killing, there must be a balance made.

Closing the economy increase crime, child abandonment, abortions, poverty, hunger, domestic violence, suicide and drug abuse. Everything here increase death rate as well and can go down hill as fast as this virus can spread.

The pt this virus is mostly killing are 80+ yo who are one slip and fall from dying anyways. In fact we have family members refusing treatment for these type of pt because it was time for them to go anyways. Is it worth putting healthy people and children at risk of death due to complete economic collapse to save mostly people who were most likely going to die this year anyways from cancer, heart disease, stroke, slip and falls/etc?

7000 80+ yo die per DAY in the U.S. How much more would this virus contribute to this number? Remember that the virus is not killing 85% of 80+ yo, and those are the same 80yo+ who will most likely not die this day or year.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

One can easily construct other scenario, but I think my Hubei and Italy scenarios span the range from reasonably optimist to reasonably pessimistic for the US. Let's hope Italy can bend the curve this week.

I think you'll see some bending of the curve. Your numbers seem reasonable. Since the big problem areas in the US (Louisiana, Florida) still haven't really fully locked down, and all the other states have their heads buried in the sand, I'm inclined to adjust my minimum number of deaths up to the 7-8k range in the US. I definitely think that 20k deaths in the US is on the table at this point, but depends on how suppression is done in the next few days.

He said they expected five times as many cases in San Francisco than in Seattle.

Remember that Seattle went into significant social distancing (with a lot of people working from home, schools shutting down) more than a week before San Francisco, and also their infections may be in a somewhat less dense area (a little harder to make that claim). That week buys you an awful lot (more than a factor of two to 4). Seattle has also had better testing capacity than San Francisco/Santa Clara, so that's removed cases from the population more rapidly.

There is some cautious optimism with the Seattle numbers, though we'll probably need to have the next 2-3 days of data to know - and they're still not testing enough (need about 2-3x the capacity).

. I think we'll quickly realized locking down is counterproductive and we'll begin easing it as soon as late next week.

Ha ha.

no matter how hard we try to screw this up,

Nothing in the statistics indicates we'll eclipse that rate of hospitalization

Well, at least I know there are contrarians out there who are willfully ignoring the facts. I'll trade on that information.

EDIT: I see I got a couple of disagrees almost immediately

Don't worry, without these people there would be no money to be made.

As far as scaling hospital capacity and taking all of the other precautions necessary to try to limit hospital overload, the US is handling things incredibly well, now that the US has accepted what's coming. It's impressive.

Do check back in on Friday. The US SHOULD be able to scale hospital capacity better than any country in the world, but we'll see how it goes. I haven't seen the urgency I'd like to see at this point. I also haven't seen, in all states, this "acceptance" you speak of. Looks like the train is not slowing down.

I never expected the Republicans to be the ones that rolled out the death panels. Life comes at you fast.

 

[jhm]

Great post

But Holy Crap. I'm not sure how many folks understand what Log scale means but that Chart is really shines a light on things.

Another way to put it in perspective is, as bad as it was in China, the chart shows it only hit 5 per 1 Million deaths.
The projections for Italy or Spain could be a 1000 or more per million before it flattens !!

China as a whole is doing quite well. Their ultimate death rate could remain below 3 DPM. The hotspot is Hubei now at 53 DPM. This demonstrates that China has successfully contained most of the epidemic to Hubei.

If the US were at the top of its public health game, perhaps Covid19 could have been contained mostly to WA, NY, CA and FL. But I don't think that's where we're headed. It seems the virus has a 50 state path to victory. The political resolve in most states seems woefully inadequate to fight this. When all is said and done I think the US will be hard pressed to have any state where the death rate is under 5 DPM. This will also make it hard for the hotspots to cool off. There will be plenty of community spread surrounding the hotspots to keep reinfecting the hotspots.

Some states may fair worse than Italy. So if we want to contain the national numbers, we need a robust fight in every state. We need a 50-state strategy for fighting this everywhere, but alas national political leadership is what it is.

 

[EVNow]

New York state has 157 dead now vs. ~150 confirmed cases two weeks ago. Even worse under-testing than Italy. Actual cases on March 9 were probably more like 7-10k, translating to 30-50k today. Plus maybe another 20-50k who are infected but pre-symptomatic. Even with perfect lockdown they'll need thousands of ICU beds. And their lockdown is far from perfect.

This was from Mar-17th.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's safe to take Korean stats as a mature dataset at this point, right? They've been stable for more than a week and it's safe to say deaths have caught up to cases making the 1.24% mortality rate reliable. These guys tested more broadly and thoroughly than anyone by far.

Now....in a country of 51M people, do we honestly think only 8,961 people have contracted cv? Step back and take a look at Korea's 111 total deaths and tell me the true mortality rate of this thing won't be .2% or lower when all is said and done.

Doctors are estimating 40+% of people will contract this virus(similar to the 20-30% that got SARS). If that's even remotely close to true and mortality is over 1%, why are there only 111 deaths in Korea? How can anywhere hit heavily by this, regardless of response or quarantine, have only 111 deaths if mortality is so high?

Perhaps I'm making a glaring logic error as well?

First thing, 7 people died in Korea today. The mortality rate keeps going up so your 1.24% figure is low.
Second, they're all getting great medical care because their hospitals are not overrun.
Third, you waved a magic wand and claimed that actual number of cases was 6 times higher than the confirmed cases. We know they're doing extensive contact tracing and have tested 270,000 people! Where did you come up with this number?

The 40% numbers people are throwing around are WITHOUT INTERVENTION! That's the type of numbers they think are necessary to achieve herd immunity. Did 20-30% of people get SARS?

 

[jerry33]

Hummm..., that was my question.

Be wonderful to have a reference for that.

So when I get my grocery delivery, I can divide frozen out and wipe down and perhaps isolate to a certain area of the freezer. This leaves everything in the freezer sanitized and ready for use in case I can't possibly wait another second for some warm pear, caramelized onion, and goat cheese pizza.

The rest of the lessor quality swill I can just set aside for a few days before use.

CDC says it shouldn't be an issue if you wash your hands before eating. A short search didn't find any authoritative reference to the two years bit. I saw a news type article but without references.

My opinion: The mechanized frozen food packages aren't touched by humans (just the occasional rat and roach) so that part isn't an issue. The grocery store stock person does touch them as does the checkout person and bagger, so there's potentially three people who have touched the outer packaging. No one has touched the inner packaging. So if you open the outer packaging and then only put the inner packaging in the freezer, there's almost zero chance of any virus getting in the freezer.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I guess as long as we're on the topic of what kills viruses, as an aside from focusing on the trading aspects of this debacle, can anyone tell me whether microwaving, say, a set of gloves (leather or fabric or whatever) which have coronavirus on them will kill the virus? My dad believes this is a good way of sanitizing his outer gloves...I'm not so sure. I am not sure how much the RNA structures will resonate, I guess. I suppose they'll heat dielectrically like anything else?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The 1200+ under 54 who have died in the US from it would disagree. We are seeing some perfectly healthy under 40's succumbing to this. You're burying your head in the sand to what is really happening.

It's my understanding that the US has reported 400 total coronovirus deaths to this point. Who are these 1200+ people you speak of?

 

[EVNow]

If the US were at the top of its public health game, perhaps Covid19 could have been contained mostly to WA, NY, CA and FL.

Most of the states are getting infected not from people from other states - but directly from people coming into that state from China or Europe.

Only way to avoid blowing up would have been to severely restrict international travel - strictly quarantine everyone flying in. Test anyone with symptoms and aggressive quarantine & tracing of contacts.

auspice

Interesting report on how Taiwan handled it. No reason to think US couldn't do it.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...-learned-from-taiwans-response-to-coronavirus

 

[shootformoon]

Frankly, I am not impressed by his leadership in this covid19 event. He claimed only focused on research part. I applauded his effort to donate 100s millions of vaccine to Africa for other pandemic. But how many tests, PPEs and masks he tried to secure, prepare and donated to hospital this time?

Bill Gates leaves Microsoft to focus on philanthropy.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Most of the states are getting infected not from people from other states - but directly from people coming into that state from China or Europe.

auspice

Up until now, sure, but I think the point is that's definitely going to change as long as there is travel between the states. There's already evidence of export from Washington State to Canada in the tree, and that's going to take place within the United States as well.

I guess I would modify the statement above to: If the US had been at the top of its public health game, this wouldn't have been an issue in any state. We would have had hundreds of thousands of tests ready in February, and would have started widespread testing in January, to work desperately to identify carriers and quarantine and contain. It's the delay that killed us.

 

[bkp_duke]

It's safe to take Korean stats as a mature dataset at this point, right? They've been stable for more than a week and it's safe to say deaths have caught up to cases making the 1.24% mortality rate reliable. These guys tested more broadly and thoroughly than anyone by far.

Now....in a country of 51M people, do we honestly think only 8,961 people have contracted cv? Step back and take a look at Korea's 111 total deaths and tell me the true mortality rate of this thing won't be .2% or lower when all is said and done.

Doctors are estimating 40+% of people will contract this virus(similar to the 20-30% that got SARS). If that's even remotely close to true and mortality is over 1%, why are there only 111 deaths in Korea? How can anywhere hit heavily by this, regardless of response or quarantine, have only 111 deaths if mortality is so high?

Perhaps I'm making a glaring logic error as well?

God I love math.

Let's take your numbers:
0.2% "true mortality rate" - the experts disagree with you at closer to 0.7%, but let's use your number
40% infection rate - the experts also disagree with you, and predict closer to 70-80%

350 million people in the USA.

350,000,000 x 0.4 x 0.002 = 280,000 deaths.

That's about 5-8 times the annual death rate from influenza.

Any questions?

 

[jerry33]

I guess as long as we're on the topic of what kills viruses, as an aside from focusing on the trading aspects of this debacle, can anyone tell me whether microwaving, say, a set of gloves (leather or fabric or whatever) which have coronavirus on them will kill the virus? My dad believes this is a good way of sanitizing his outer gloves...I'm not so sure. I am not sure how much the RNA structures will resonate, I guess. I suppose they'll heat dielectrically like anything else?

To disinfect masks (patience, I'll get to gloves shorty), the recommended way is to soak the masks in alcohol based surface sanitizer for ten minutes or so and then dry them (those were the instructions I read yesterday). I don't see why gloves would be any different although the soaking and drying time should be longer. As far as microwaves go, it's a crap shoot.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Frankly, I am not impressed by his leadership in this covid19 event. He claimed only focused on research part. I applauded his effort to donate 100s millions of vaccine to Africa back then. But how many PPEs and masks he donated to hospital this time?

Why would Bill Gates have a large personal supply of masks?

 

[jerry33]

It's my understanding that the US has reported 400 total coronovirus deaths to this point. Who are these 1200+ people you speak of?

Latest numbers show 504.

 

[Dr. J]

Wonder if something changed over the weekend? I got a call from my manager this weekend to inform me that I am 'essential personnel' (work for a shipping company) and would need to be at work this coming week. Made it sound like there was a lockdown coming, and talking with coworkers, everyone got the one on one call.

Dallas County locked down last night, and Judge Jenkins made it sound like all the other big counties (notably, except Tarrant) were on the same page.

 

[jerry33]

Why would Bill Gates have a large personal supply of masks?

7-11 holdups?