Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

I'd suggest that it's because the Japanese put on a mask anytime they even think they are sick or at risk. It's just normal. Also Japanese don't have a touchy-feely culture. They take great care to ensure cleanliness, not only bidets, but WCs aren't in the same room as the tub and shower, there are slippers you only wear in the WC, and some WCs have hand washing as part of the tank (the tank fills through a basin where you wash your hands).

Sure -- I have been advocating those behaviours since this epidemic began and realize their importance, but do the Japanese substantially differ from populations in Singapore, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Hong Kong where much more authoritarian control was progressively instituted to control the outbreak ?

 

[jerry33]

Sure -- I have been advocating those behaviours since this epidemic began and realize their importance, but do the Japanese substantially differ from populations in Singapore, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Hong Kong where much more authoritarian control was instituted to control the outbreak ?

Sorry, I don't know about those other populations.

 

[bkp_duke]

Manageable how. If this was China when people has a savings rate of over 18%, then year sure. But 86% of this country lives paycheck to paycheck. Hey did you see any checks written to any Chinese by the government because they were forced to sit at home for a month? You have to here or else people will be looting on the street.

Where's the looting?

Antifa seems to have taken the day (week? month?) off.

Granted, those bums probably didn't have jobs to begin with, so just another day in the neighborhood for them.

 

[kyzhk]

God I love math.

Let's take your numbers:
0.2% "true mortality rate" - the experts disagree with you at closer to 0.7%, but let's use your number
40% infection rate - the experts also disagree with you, and predict closer to 70-80%

350 million people in the USA.

350,000,000 x 0.4 x 0.002 = 280,000 deaths.

That's about 5-8 times the annual death rate from influenza.

Any questions?

So this is comparing total deaths from a disease versus annualized death rate from another disease?

 

[Compton]

How many smokers are on ventilators right now? Lot less than non-smokers infected with SARS-CoV-2.

And again, I don't have my sympathy (any) for the smokers.

Could there be fewer smokers if countries directed just a fraction of the energy and determination shown now against the coronavirus to fight or outright ban smoking? Or air pollution that kills around 0.2 million USA citizens every year? But no, coronavirus is a special rainbow.

 

[Singuy]

Where's the looting?

Antifa seems to have taken the day (week? month?) off.

Granted, those bums probably didn't have jobs to begin with, so just another day in the neighborhood for them.

Only has been a month with the promise of checks coming. Give it some more months and people will be on the streets.

86% of Americans are 3 blank checks away from being homeless. It's a massive effing problem because of how people live. So the government has to throw the biggest social UBI just to keep people from going hungry. People in China wouldn't even care since the majority of those people have months worth of emergency funds.

This is why a total shutdown really needs to be weighed with it's pros and cons. I mean some of these businesses laying off people in masses(including Disney right now) just tells you how leveraged everything else.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Those morons chose to put their lives at risk. I have zero empathy or sympathy for them.

With SARS-CoV-2 no one is given a choice.

Also that's only 42k people per month distributed across the country and distributed evenly in time, and they don't all die in the hospital.

 

[Compton]

How many smokers are on ventilators right now? Lot less than non-smokers infected with SARS-CoV-2.

And again, I don't have my sympathy (any) for the smokers.

I assume you are not an MD? Smoking damages a lot more than just lungs.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

But no, coronavirus is a special rainbow.

I'll keep in mind that I don't want to crash my mountain bike or crash my car over the next couple months. Could be a grim outlook.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Not true in this country. We're generally in such poor health that the mortality rate in the 50 and under crowd is much higher than other countries.

Economic fallout is manageable.

Someone had a break-down of covid-19 deaths in NY that directly refutes this. 29 of the 63 deaths were 45-75, while the rest were over 75+. Generally poor health is a risk factor, but doesn't mean that the US is predominantly of poor health.

 

[Compton]

I'll keep in mind that I don't want to crash my mountain bike or crash my car over the next couple months. Could be a grim outlook.

Say hi to the freshly homeless people who were saved from the virus while you walk.

 

[bkp_duke]

I assume you are not an MD? Smoking damages a lot more than just lungs.

I am an M.D. I also have a Ph.D. in molecular biology. I guarantee you have I treated more smokers than you.

 

[Dr. J]

Given what the article actually says, it isn't surprising at all. I'd suggest that people read the article past the headline.

The single example they gave of Fauci countering Trump was Trump's talking up hydroxychloroquine, something a lot of people in this forum have also done. Fauci just cautioned that the claim was anecdotal and no clinical trials have been done yet.

That same article says of Trump:

Fauci: "“Well, that’s pretty interesting because to his [Trump’s] credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.”

Asked how often he disagreed with the president, Dr Fauci said: “I don’t disagree in the substance. It is expressed in a way that I would not express it, because it could lead to some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject.”

There are many qualities a person must have to keep a highly visible and responsible position in government for 40 years. One of them is being a skilled diplomat. It would be out of character for Dr. Fauci to enumerate, for publication, the number of times he has disagreed with his big boss. If you were paying attention, you would know there has been more than one public disagreement. Think: how long it takes for a vaccine to get approved, manufactured and widely dispensed.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Only has been a month with the promise of checks coming. Give it some more months and people will be on the streets.

86% of Americans are 3 blank checks away from being homeless. It's a massive effing problem because of how people live. So the government has to throw the biggest social UBI just to keep people from going hungry. People in China wouldn't even care since the majority of those people have months worth of emergency funds.

This is why a total shutdown really needs to be weighed with it's pros and cons. I mean some of these businesses laying off people in masses(including Disney right now) just tells you how leveraged everything else.

I think you should do a better job go imagining what the economy looks like when the demand for ICU beds far exceeds supply and a huge number of people are too sick to work. Are people going to be out shopping? Going to bars and clubs? Going to Disneyland? No, they'll be panicking and hoping they can ride it out until it's safe to go outside.
Look at the hospitalization rate for all ages for COVID-19 and think about how people will react.
Would Italy's economy be humming along right now if the government hadn't shut everything down?

 

[ohmman]

I wonder if you could chart the personal economic impact on each person posting in this thread against their opinions on the matter if you’d find any interesting correlations.

 

[Compton]

I am an M.D. I also have a Ph.D. in molecular biology. I guarantee you have I treated more smokers than you.

Then you have some refreshing to do

 

[bkp_duke]

Then you have some refreshing to do

Nope. You clearly have no concept of the difference between acute and chronic diseases.

But please, continue posting. Amusing highlight of my day so far.

 

[EVNow]

Those morons chose to put their lives at risk. I have zero empathy or sympathy for them.

With SARS-CoV-2 no one is given a choice.

Yes - that's the difference between when the society decides to act and doesn't do anything dramatic.
- 9/11 or any other terrorist event
- mass shootings (basically same as above)
- airplane accidents
- drunk driving accidents
- equipment malfunction (think of all the recalls)
- wars

compared to
- addictions : over-eating, opioids, smoking, alcoholism etc
- traffic accidents (surely a lot of these are random)

Even though, all these have elements of both personal responsibility and total randomness - some are clearly more random than others. The second set cause orders of magnitude more deaths than the first.

 

[bkp_duke]

I wonder if you could chart the personal economic impact on each person posting in this thread against their opinions on the matter if you’d find any interesting correlations.

I'll take that challenge. I've already seen a 25% drop in revenue in the company I own. I've NOT fired or cut back any staff. Myself and the co-owners are currently taking a pay cut to continue operations.

 

[SageBrush]

Someone had a break-down of covid-19 deaths in NY that directly refutes this. 29 of the 63 deaths were 45-75, while the rest were over 75+. Generally poor health is a risk factor, but doesn't mean that the US is predominantly of poor health.

That is not a refutation. You have to know exposure and co-morbidity data.

As for poor general health, ~ 50% of adults in the southern states are obese. That is by definition poor health. Put on top of that the adult tobacco abuse prevalence and there is really nothing left to argue about.