Coronavirus

[Compton]

God I love math.

Let's take your numbers:
0.2% "true mortality rate" - the experts disagree with you at closer to 0.7%, but let's use your number
40% infection rate - the experts also disagree with you, and predict closer to 70-80%

350 million people in the USA.

350,000,000 x 0.4 x 0.002 = 280,000 deaths.

That's about 5-8 times the annual death rate from influenza.

Any questions?

So 60% of deaths related to smoking, omg we need to shut down everything No matter what the cost to people lives or the economic cost!! Because you know, money doesn't improve people's health later.

 

[eevee-fan]

To disinfect masks (patience, I'll get to gloves shorty), the recommended way is to soak the masks in alcohol based surface sanitizer for ten minutes or so and then dry them (those were the instructions I read yesterday). I don't see why gloves would be any different although the soaking and drying time should be longer. As far as microwaves go, it's a crap shoot.

With microwave and other kitchen appliances, you are relying on heat to destroy the virus. I read on another post that temp 70C should be sufficient, so boiling water would work as boiling water is 100C.

 

[bkp_duke]

So 60% of deaths related to smoking, omg we need to shut down everything

Smoking? No, no smoking. What are YOU smoking?

 

[Compton]

Smoking? No, no smoking. What are YOU smoking?

Smoking kills half a million in the USA every year.

 

[X Fan]

Most of the states are getting infected not from people from other states - but directly from people coming into that state from China or Europe.

auspice

Agreed....FL tracks person by person on where the virus originated from.

China, Italy, Middle East, UK were the main originators....in NYC I don't doubt the same (although their numbers are so high I don't believe they are tracking anymore) given the transient nature of the city with numerous flights to Asia & Europe coupled with significant Chinese & Italian populations. Of course, we're now in the second phase whereby community spread is occurring

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We know they're doing extensive contact tracing and have tested 270,000 people! Where did you come up with this number?

They actually tested more like 400k as of 4 or 5 days ago. It could be a million by now for all I know. I just know they're doing by far the best job and therefore are the most reliable dataset.

 

[bkp_duke]

Smoking kills half a million in the USA every year.

Those morons chose to put their lives at risk. I have zero empathy or sympathy for them.

With SARS-CoV-2 no one is given a choice.

 

[jerry33]

With microwave and other kitchen appliances, you are relying on heat to destroy the virus. I read on another post that temp 70C should be sufficient, so boiling water would work as boiling water is 100C.

Correct. The issue is that microwaves don't heat food evenly, so there can be parts of the food that doesn't reach 70C. What I also don't know is the length of time it needs to stay at 70C. 2 seconds, 30 seconds, longer?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Just note of a potential bias. We had a pt who was 82 with all sorts of underlining conditions showed up with COVID pos. Family member refused treatment and signed DNR.

It's a potential bias people may not be aware of is that the elderly pt dying to this virus had so many underlying conditions that they are literally one hospital visit away from family members calling it quit. If it wasn't the coronavirus, it could of been a slip and fall. So when looking at deaths and treatments, keep this in mind since we didn't even get one dose of hydroxychloroquine into this pt before all pressors were discontinued and supportive care was initiated only.

For reference, DNR was signed PRIOR to confirming COVID pos.

DNR's for folks over 80 is actually normal. Both my grandparents have DNR's, because CPR alone would cripple them (fractured ribs, breathing tubes, feeding tubes, etc). They're bedridden as they are now. Just hoping that they pass away peacefully and not from pneumonia and such.

 

[SageBrush]

Japan is the Unicorn country -- ~ stable daily case rate, no lockdown and non-aggressive testing.
Some skeptics think the low rates are due to low testing rates but the lack of a spike in Pneumonia cases almost 3 months after Covid first arrived in Japan argues against that notion.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[eevee-fan]

Correct. The issue is that microwaves don't heat food evenly, so there can be parts of the food that doesn't reach 70C. What I also don't know is the length of time it needs to stay at 70C. 2 seconds, 30 seconds, longer?

Microwave safe steamer should work fine. Anyone know how long at 100C to destroy the virus? I would imagine steam it then leave it the microwave until it cools on its own. The goal is to melt the fat protecting the virus, just like hand washing, right?

 

[bkp_duke]

Haha, but the economic impact is the same without wiping out the economy, with all the fallout that entails.

Actually it's not. It's a really piss-poor analogy you picked.

These are people that arguably have a chronic medical condition, that is non-infectious (i.e. R0 = 0), and have been dying at a slow, predictable rate that does NOT tax the medical system.

SARS-CoV-2 is an acute shock to the system.

Pick your poison - you let up to 2 million Americans die because you don't do anything, or you deal with the economic fall-out.

Arguably, the latter you can control better than the former.

 

[jerry33]

Japan is the Unicorn country -- ~ stable daily case rate, no lockdown and non-aggressive testing.
Some skeptics think the low rates are due to low testing rates but the lack of a spike in Pneumonia cases almost 3 months after Covid first arrived in Japan argues against that notion.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I'd suggest that it's because the Japanese put on a mask anytime they even think they are sick or at risk. It's just normal. Also Japanese don't have a touchy-feely culture. They take great care to ensure cleanliness, not only bidets, but WCs aren't in the same room as the tub and shower, there are slippers you only wear in the WC, and some WCs have hand washing as part of the tank (the tank fills through a basin where you wash your hands).

 

[Daniel in SD]

They actually tested more like 400k as of 4 or 5 days ago. It could be a million by now for all I know. I just know they're doing by far the best job and therefore are the most reliable dataset.

So why do you think they're undercounting by a factor of six?

 

[Singuy]

Actually it's not. It's a really piss-poor analogy you picked.

These are people that arguably have a chronic medical condition, that is non-infectious (i.e. R0 = 0), and have been dying at a slow, predictable rate that does NOT tax the medical system.

SARS-CoV-2 is an acute shock to the system.

Pick your poison - you let up to 2 million Americans die because you don't do anything, or you deal with the economic fall-out.

Arguably, the latter you can control better than the former.

Economic fall out kills young people and children. The virus kills old sick people. Which poison to pick? Choice was pretty clear when the titanic was sinking....

Of course we can always walk and chew gum at the same time. Isolate and reduce visitation of the old/sick. Prevent the young from being affected by opening up the economy.

 

[Compton]

Actually it's not. It's a really piss-poor analogy you picked.

These are people that arguably have a chronic medical condition, that is non-infectious (i.e. R0 = 0), and have been dying at a slow, predictable rate that does NOT tax the medical system.

SARS-CoV-2 is an acute shock to the system.

Pick your poison - you let up to 2 million Americans die because you don't do anything, or you deal with the economic fall-out.

Arguably, the latter you can control better than the former.

Does not tax the medical system? That's a howler Welcome to the ER.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Economic fall out kills young people and children. The virus kills old sick people. Which poison to pick? Choice was pretty clear when the titanic was sinking....

Source? By what mechanism?

 

[bkp_duke]

Economic fall out kills young people and children. The virus kills old sick people. Which poison to pick? Choice was pretty clear when the titanic was sinking....

Not true in this country. We're generally in such poor health that the mortality rate in the 50 and under crowd is much higher than other countries.

Economic fallout is manageable.

 

[bkp_duke]

Does not tax the medical system? That's a howler Welcome to the ER.

How many smokers are on ventilators right now? Lot less than non-smokers infected with SARS-CoV-2.

And again, I don't have my sympathy (any) for the smokers.

 

[Singuy]

Not true in this country. We're generally in such poor health that the mortality rate in the 50 and under crowd is much higher than other countries.

Economic fallout is manageable.

Manageable how. If this was China when people has a savings rate of over 18%, then year sure. But 86% of this country lives paycheck to paycheck. Hey did you see any checks written to any Chinese by the government because they were forced to sit at home for a month? You have to here or else people will be looting on the street.