Coronavirus

[deonb]

People keep using this response when those of us say let the younger workforce back into economy and their daily lives. I don't get it. It's not like we're saying let everyone out of quarantine. We're clearly saying that the at risk age groups need to stay in quarantine. For me that anyone above the age 50+ is not allowed back at work. Employers could easily institute age scanning and anyone above the age of 50 is sent back home and/or reported for breaking their quarantine. At a certain point, it become personal responsibility for those that are at high risk to protect themselves and if they chose to ignore their quarantine orders, than so be it.

There are other options that are just as effective as Lockdown, Lockdown, Lockdown without crumbling the world's economy.

The only demographic that won’t require millions of hospital beds if this spreads uncontrolled in that group is people between the ages of 0 and 19.

Is that your planned workforce?



EDIT: I see I got a couple of disagrees almost immediately. I did the math again and saw there are 75 million under 19s in the US. At the current US rate, 1.6% to 2.5% of them require hospitalization. So that would mean 1.2 million to 1.7 million people under the age of 19 requiring hospitalization almost simultaneously.

Ok, you guys are right, I was wrong. You won't even have your under 19 workforce.

 

[mswlogo]

People keep using this response when those of us say let the younger workforce back into economy and their daily lives. I don't get it. It's not like we're saying let everyone out of quarantine. We're clearly saying that the at risk age groups need to stay in quarantine. For me that anyone above the age 50+ is not allowed back at work. Employers could easily institute age scanning and anyone above the age of 50 is sent back home and/or reported for breaking their quarantine.

There are other options that are just as effective as Lockdown, Lockdown, Lockdown without crumbling the world's economy.

That’s nearly impossible to do.

You going to keep those people at work?
They need to be 100% tested and not allowed to mingle with any crowd not 100% tested.

Good luck pulling that off.

And if you could pull it off, why not allow someone older that has been tested negative?

By doing a lockdown, you effectively test everyone in two weeks. And the positive ones will be known and restricted. Meanwhile testing can ramp up.

It’s the only way, at this point in time. Over time something like you suggest could happen.

That’s what China did. If you were tested positive you had to stay at a site with other positive people. Cruel but effective.

 

[sparcs]

People keep using this response when those of us say let the younger workforce back into economy and their daily lives. I don't get it. It's not like we're saying let everyone out of quarantine. We're clearly saying that the at risk age groups need to stay in quarantine. For me that anyone above the age 50+ is not allowed back at work. Employers could easily institute age scanning and anyone above the age of 50 is sent back home and/or reported for breaking their quarantine. At a certain point, it become personal responsibility for those that are at high risk to protect themselves and if they chose to ignore their quarantine orders, than so be it.

There are other options that are just as effective as Lockdown, Lockdown, Lockdown without crumbling the world's economy.

Except people will be dying from more causes outside of COVID-19. Should people who get a heart attack and every other possible emergency ailment die because lack of medical resources?

as long as you don't have some level of control, a lockdown is the only option. The healthy people will just make this even worse. You would no longer be talking about COVID-19 deaths.

You also expend state resources as well. Large city center suck up all the state resources. Guess who is next? Population centers in 200k that no longer have state support.

 

[EV Promoter]

Italy:
New cases: 4790 (8%)
Deaths: 602

Looks like Italy peaked.

No, new case are 3780, slightly less than yersterday 3957 and 2 days ago 4821. So good trend on daily new positives, as for the graph (look down).

Sunday night the first minister imposed the total lockdown of any activity and work not deemed functional to the emergency, and total restriction of mouvement for people. Including people that cannot go back home to their original counties now that all productions and business has been stopped. Police enforcement of the measure in railway stations and tollways.
You cannot go further than this.
Some slight problem to implement the measures, not because workers but because employers that tries to delay the shutdown.

Numbers just updated here :

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[SageBrush]

Amazing really that Dr. Fauci has not quit
Dr Anthony Fauci counters Trump claims amid crisis: 'I just want to get the facts out'

 

[deonb]

No, new case are 3780, slightly less than yersterday 3957 and 2 days ago 4821. So good trend on daily new positives, as for the graph (look down).

Those are the nett new cases (subtracting recoveries and deaths). Delta active cases basically.

My numbers above are for gross new cases.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Italy:
New cases: 4790 (8%)
Deaths: 602

Looks like Italy peaked.

A couple days needed to reinforce the trend, but this is promising.

 

[Quesder]

No, new case are 3780, slightly less than yersterday 3957 and 2 days ago 4821. So good trend on daily new positives, as for the graph (look down).

Sunday night the first minister imposed the total lockdown of any activity and work not deemed functional to the emergency, and total restriction of mouvement for people. Including people that cannot go back home to their original counties now that all productions and business has been stopped. Police enforcement of the measure in railway stations and tollways.
You cannot go further than this.
Some slight problem to implement the measures, not because workers but because employers that tries to delay the shutdown.

Numbers just updated here :

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

My number is not same as yours:

latest : 4789
previous day: 5560
source : Coronavirus Update (Live): 372,253 Cases and 16,312 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[TheTalkingMule]

They are at “zero” risk of death because they have hospital care. Currently 30% of Coronavirus hospitalizations in the US is under 55s.

So to do enact your plan you’d have to anyway lock the entire country down for long enough to build the 5 million hospital beds and ventilators for the 5% of under 50s that you end up sending to the hospital at the same time.

By the time you’re done building those, the virus would be long gone.

Unless your plan is literally just - screw it, nobody gets hospital treatment. Now go to work!

Well the way we're trending right now this will have fewer hospitalizations and deaths than flu season 2018(thanks to lockdown). Now that flu was more spread out over 2.5 months, but as I've mentioned a few dozen times, we had weeks where 6-7k people died of flu that year.

Nothing in the statistics indicates we'll eclipse that rate of hospitalization, so yes our primary concern is rate at which these people need care. Yes having double the peak 2018 flu hospitalization rate over a 3 week period would be very taxing, but literally not a peep was uttered in 2018 and our entire country today is shutdown. There are many levels of freak-out between those two realities.

 

[EVNow]

People keep using this response when those of us say let the younger workforce back into economy and their daily lives. I don't get it. It's not like we're saying let everyone out of quarantine. We're clearly saying that the at risk age groups need to stay in quarantine. For me that anyone above the age 50+ is not allowed back at work. Employers could easily institute age scanning and anyone above the age of 50 is sent back home and/or reported for breaking their quarantine. At a certain point, it become personal responsibility for those that are at high risk to protect themselves and if they chose to ignore their quarantine orders, than so be it.

There are other options that are just as effective as Lockdown, Lockdown, Lockdown without crumbling the world's economy.

There is no magic cut off at 50. Moreover you have to also look at other risk factors. Lets say anyone above BMI 25 is at risk. That probably reduced the workforce by 50% (if not more). Ofcourse employers don't know other risk factors for individuals.

 

[EV Promoter]

My number is not same as yours:

latest : 4789
previous day: 5560
source : Coronavirus Update (Live): 372,253 Cases and 16,312 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Not to be trusted,
Mine are the italian official source, announced everyday by the Minister in an officiale press conference and published here:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[Doggydogworld]

Sorry, looks like an NYC thing. My bad.

NYC Cancels Coronavirus Testing By Appointment, Urges Providers Not To Test Patients Unless Hospitalization Is Required

NYC did this to conserve masks and other PPE. They're heading into crisis and must focus on the immediate need.

The density of reported cases, Italy is quickly approaching 0.10%, the US just passed 0.01%:

NY just passed 0.10%. Lombardy is close to 0.3% confirmed, almost certainly above 1% including untested cases.

People commenting on German fatality rate should consider a ~2 week lag between testing positive and dying. It should be even longer in Germany because they test proactively and catch cases early. Anyway, two weeks ago Germany had 1224 cases. Today they have 118 deaths. That's almost 10%. My guess is even with proactive testing they've missed a ton of cases.

South Korea also tested pro-actively. Their crude rate was a bit above 0.5% early on, now it's 1.24%. Their two week lag rate is ~1.5%. Like Germany, their two week lag rate was 10% early on, despite proactive testing they had missed a ton of cases in that sect.

Italy today has 6077 deaths vs. 9172 confirmed cases two weeks ago. An obvious case of massive under-testing, they probably had close to 200k undetected cases two weeks ago when they shut down the northern part of the country.

New York state has 157 dead now vs. ~150 confirmed cases two weeks ago. Even worse under-testing than Italy. Actual cases on March 9 were probably more like 7-10k, translating to 30-50k today. Plus maybe another 20-50k who are infected but pre-symptomatic. Even with perfect lockdown they'll need thousands of ICU beds. And their lockdown is far from perfect.

Ugh. Someone please find the gross error in my math.

 

[X Fan]

FL Gov. getting political pressure from SE FL newspapers (and CNN picked up the story ) to lock down the state. However I don't doubt he's getting pressure from rest of state to keep the State open since most counties have reported minimal positive cases.

NC: Gov just instituted keeping schools closed until May 15 and added more businesses to the list that must close by Wednesday. Shockingly, he's allowing groups of 50 to congregate (down from 75) which is clearly against current Federal guidelines.

 

[JRP3]

For younger people it's dangerous, but not life threatening because it's ultra-fast spread and has such a long incubation period.

The 1200+ under 54 who have died in the US from it would disagree. We are seeing some perfectly healthy under 40's succumbing to this. You're burying your head in the sand to what is really happening.

 

[N5329K]

Fascinating account from the front line:

Robin

 

[Daniel in SD]

Nothing in the statistics indicates we'll eclipse that rate of hospitalization

You keep making statements like this without any numbers. How are you calculating this?

 

[winfield100]

Amazing really that Dr. Fauci has not quit
Dr Anthony Fauci counters Trump claims amid crisis: 'I just want to get the facts out'

Because he has been head of NIAID since 1984, dealt with AIDS, cares for the populace and is 79 years old

 

[NicoV]

Just saw a post on the Benelux FB pages that somebody received his car in Ghent today, which means that the deliveries are still going on in Belgium even though we’re in lockdown.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Amazing really that Dr. Fauci has not quit
Dr Anthony Fauci counters Trump claims amid crisis: 'I just want to get the facts out'

Given what the article actually says, it isn't surprising at all. I'd suggest that people read the article past the headline.

The single example they gave of Fauci countering Trump was Trump's talking up hydroxychloroquine, something a lot of people in this forum have also done. Fauci just cautioned that the claim was anecdotal and no clinical trials have been done yet.

That same article says of Trump:

Fauci: "“Well, that’s pretty interesting because to his [Trump’s] credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.”

Asked how often he disagreed with the president, Dr Fauci said: “I don’t disagree in the substance. It is expressed in a way that I would not express it, because it could lead to some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject.”

 

[lascavarian]

If it's similar to other coronaviruses it can survive 2 years in a freezer.

Hummm..., that was my question.

Be wonderful to have a reference for that.

So when I get my grocery delivery, I can divide frozen out and wipe down and perhaps isolate to a certain area of the freezer. This leaves everything in the freezer sanitized and ready for use in case I can't possibly wait another second for some warm pear, caramelized onion, and goat cheese pizza.

The rest of the lessor quality swill I can just set aside for a few days before use.