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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Coronavirus Update (Live): 499,230 Cases and 22,310 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Big jump in cases in New York which means it is inevitable that USA will have the most cases in the world within days. Might get pretty close today since so few other states will have reported yet.
New York 37,258 +4,292
Big jump in cases in New York which means it is inevitable that USA will have the most cases in the world within days. Might get pretty close today since so few other states will have reported yet.
New York 37,258 +4,292
Been wondering that myself. Too soon to know at this point. I think it will pivot on the success of the vaccine. If the vaccine works well and comes quickly then many will just stay where they are. But if this lingers too long then living in urban areas may be a hassle.
The other issue IMO is the "future" of the UBI. If work-at-home thrives (maybe with a little UBI) then employment will not be such a draw for the urban areas. I generally tend to think this will be disruptive to the promise of urban bliss. YMMV
deonb
Active Member
Not even New York is done reporting. That number will change throughout the day. Can only really draw a conclusion at midnight GMT time.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Possibly, it's certainly undeniable that the situation in NYC is horrific. I am thankful that I can safely go for a walk without ever coming within 6 feet of another person or an enclosed public space (elevator, stairwell).
On the other hand South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan are all extremely urbanized and have done a much better job controlling the spread. Hopefully we will take lessons from them.
USA just moved up to the #2 spot now. Should be #1 for most confirmed cases by end of today.
Right. Right now many cities are pushing for "build up, not out" but the results will be higher costs of living which are a nightmare when stuff like this happens. It's one thing to survive off your savings in a small Texas town. It's another to do the same in Bay Area. And then health crises like this make it worse. Costs of living and crime rate are old news though and haven't stopped anyone before. I'm just wishing out loud.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Basically meaningless because we have a huge population compared to most countries. Go to:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 502,854 Cases and 22,337 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Sort by "Tot Cases/1M Pop" to see comparable numbers (and ignore the tiny population areas). The US is between Brunei and Qatar, below all the Scandinavia utopias, etc.
Going by the Johns Hopkins figures on Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS just now, China is at ~82k confirmed cases vs USA at ~69k with a quarter of the total population. Depending how one likes to slice it, that means USA is already ahead of China at least. Granted, all those figures are suspect at this time. And I do mean all.
Take a quick look. The US had roughly 10,000 more active cases than the next highest, Italy, a few minutes ago.
Click on 'active cases' in world o meter, click again and it will show ranking by active cases from high to low.
Of course you can rank in any case order, so, deaths, puts Spain on top. China still has the highest number of total cases but the US and Italy are a few days away from exceeding China even by that measure, as you state.
Some politicians are making timid positive comments. It is clear that China and South Korea are 'on the mend'. Elsewhere in the world the lack of broad testing makes such assertions a trifle early.
For examples just look at Louisiana, Israel, and many other places where the infections are just scaling their spread.
I am optimistic that most of the world will be showing improvement in the next couple of months, some earlier. 'showing improvement' must be seen in context. Lombardy and Madrid are 'showing improvement', at least in parts because they're clearing away the already dead people. When a health system overloads nothing reported is likely to be accurate. New York seems to be there now, at least in Queens and probably Brooklyn and Manhattan also.
In Sao Paulo one wedding party has thus far produced dozens of cases, including three of my family members. Worldwide we must be aware that it only takes a single nursing home in Kirkland or a party of Fairfield County to spawn huge spread.
For ancient context, in 1967 I was an epidemiologist in New York City. A single person, a case I handled 'CM', ended out having infected, personally, more than 1000 people. That disease required close personal contact to pass.This one does not. I think there is no way to know when a peak has happened until broad testing of non-symptomatic people has also happened. There is no other way. That is why Dr. Anthony Fauci keeps emphasizing that point.
AFAIK only China and South Korea have had that extensive testing. Even so both countries have not comprehensively tested everywhere so sudden clusters could still easily happen. If a 'CM' happens all bets are off.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
We'll be in the top 10 by that metric (in countries with more than 500 cases) by end of next week. Certainly going to outdo those pitiful Scandinavian utopias. They've got nothing on us.
All this winning!
What is going on with the stock market? Denial? It’s completely disconnected from what’s going on out there. I don’t get it.
deonb
Active Member
"We're going to win so much. You're going to get tired of winning. you’re going to say, ‘Please Mr. President, I have a headache. Please, don't win so much. This is getting terrible.’"
That is why one must look at clusters, not broad populations. Look at Kirkland, WA or Brooklyn, NY. Look at Queens. If we are looking at cases per million, China and India seem just fine, don't they?
Here is a primer on viruses and pandemics
Very informative https://youtu.be/0oLKmFLG5a0
https://youtu.be/0oLKmFLG5a0
Very informative https://youtu.be/0oLKmFLG5a0
https://youtu.be/0oLKmFLG5a0
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Forward looking indicator. I do tend to think the market is hopeful about the beautiful Easter timeline, though, which may be a bit of an unforced error. People tend to believe what the president says.
Hard to know how things will go. It seems like it's pricing in something like another month of shutdown, possibly with some people going back to work before then, followed by a nice sharp recovery. I have my doubts about that. I'm not going back to work until it is crystal clear no one has it in San Diego.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I read part of an article the other day and now can't find it. It was from back in February and cited a Harvard study about how waste systems in NYC apartment buildings allow things like viruses to "aerosol" more easily and cause "vertical transmission" through buildings. This ring a bell to anyone?
Made a lot of sense when I was reading it, but I'm not sure how that would differ from the situation in Korea or Japan.
deonb
Active Member
$2T is quite a bit of money. It's 10% of the GDP - if the economy is stalled by 50%, it can sustain us for 10 weeks.
There are plausible ways that this could be over in 10 weeks. E.g. Trump or a member of his family picks up COVID on week 4 and he decides to do something about it.
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