Coronavirus

[ohmman]

how does temperature affect it? slows the deactivation (is that the right word?) I would assume.

From what I've read, that's the case with most other coronaviruses. Some can last up to 28 days in colder temperatures. They also degrade more rapidly in high temperatures (and actually, high humidity degrades them more quickly than low humidity, which is counter to what I would have guessed). I haven't seen anything yet on temperature stability of SARS-CoV-2, though.

 

[SageBrush]

such strange new concepts, sigh. we're all going to have to learn to be 'home lab technicians', now.

Or just learn to wash your hands after handling non-clean objects

 

[sixela]

The one single factor that has prevented us from being completely overrun with this virus and in a similar situation to Italy was Trump.

I wouldn't brag about "not being Italy" just yet. A minister in Belgium did, just a handful of doubling times ago. the US isn''t testing very thoroughly yet you're catching up to Italy at an alarming rate.

One wonders how South Korea managed to control the epidemic, without the 'benefit' of Trump.

 

[DanCar]

It is only a matter of weeks before we are seeing Italy in the rear view mirror.

 

[eevee-fan]

I live in Tampa. Beaches are packed. Highways are packed. Social distancing?

We are closing pockets of the economy for what? In hopes that people comply and we slow down the spread and in 12 months everything will go away? Do you think people will live like this for 12 months? NO WAY.. Domestic violence, riots and supply shortages would happen in few months.

MY solution: quarantine everybody above 65.. Everyone else go back to work and live your life. Those 65+ retirees should have a separate govt program to deliver food, necessities and extra cash.

Why are we panicking and ruining the economy for generations if the spread is def inevitable? (China style quarantine worked bc they literally welded peoples doors shut - try this in Florida you will get riots and people in uniform will be hurt)

We would need to quarantine more than just the 65+. How about people with heart, lung, or metabolic conditions? They are also at elevated risk.

 

[Killroy]

Exactly. The post millennials are working on their Darwin Awards.

If you want to be dark about a specific group, this is more likely:

Millennials are a low risk, but boomers are ~70 more likely to die from the data that I have seen.

So, the millennials, will probably get corvid-19 and live, pass it onto boomers that will die. Millennials will just inherit boomer inheritance before they can spend it all in typical end of life healthcare.

 

[X Fan]

Agreed, a week ago we were "doing nothing" so the graph made sense. Today we're already doing a lot more than the lowest curve on that graph, and we're about to lock down even harder.

I'm less optimistic about the Defense Production Act. It's easy to create hospital beds, just take over vacant hotels, college dorms, etc. The DPA doesn't magically create factories that can churn out N95 masks and ventilators, though.

Dr. Birx said our numbers would soon look worse than Italy's. I believe we'll ramp faster as these high throughput test centers light up. And it's quite possible we'll exceed their total case count. But per capita? I'd bet against that. Speaking of Italy, they found 4.2k new cases today. That's disheartening, I was hoping four straight days of ~3.5k indicated they were hitting the peak.

"Dr. Birx said our numbers would soon look worse than Italy's"

During the press conference today, she noted that the numbers may jump up significantly over the next couple of days due to a backlog of tests finally being processed. So, don't be totally alarmed by a significant jump tomorrow. I'll say it again: she is darn impressive.

 

[EVNow]

Some interesting notes. UWVirology has been testing over 1,000 people from last 8 days. Most of these are from WA, but some are also from outside. They have near realtime data on # of tests and positives in this page.

UW Virology | University of Washington Department of Virology

The positives each day are a little less than 10%. That rate has not changed much over the last 8 days. The positive rate is something to watch for. If the rate of infection increases, we'll see it here first.

 

[eevee-fan]

Are HEPA filter systems suppose to help clean the air of coronavirus particles? Been reading how the airborne particles can be in the air for 3 hours (Reuters).


Shopping For Older At-Risk and/or Immune Compromised Individuals

I saw today that Target announced 1st hour open on Wednesdays would be dedicated to At-Risk older and/or immune compromised individuals to shop.

Safeway grocery store (Calif/west coast chain) just announced 1st hour open on Tuesdays and Thursdays for At-Risk older and/or immune compromised individuals to shop.

can add Whole Foods to the 1st hour open on Wednesdays.

I have Honeywell FPR10 filters (the highest rating). It claims to filter our 'virus carriers'.

If you want to be safe, you should have a UV-C lamp installed in your air duct intake and also a plug in model that you can place in rooms you want to surface clean. It's basically like the sun and will fry RNA/DNA.

 

[eevee-fan]

"Dr. Birx said our numbers would soon look worse than Italy's"

During the press conference today, she noted that the numbers may jump up significantly over the next couple of days due to a backlog of tests finally being processed. So, don't be totally alarmed by a significant jump tomorrow. I'll say it again: she is darn impressive.

What I hear is "backlog of test result to be posted".

 

[byeLT4]

or put them into a 'holding room' (if you have space) and wait for the safety time?.

My wife and I bought groceries early Monday morning. Perishables we brought in, and decontaminated best we could. We used my car since we only need hers this week as we are both on vacation. Everything else will sit in the car for at least 72 hours with a bit of Lysol. Probably above and beyond, but, I shopped for my parents as well and want to do everything to keep them isolated.

 

[X Fan]

And...we're still under-reacting. Maybe we won't need masks!

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Just want to make sure it's clear: with exponential growth, you have to start EARLY. We're doing a lot of talking, but not a lot of doing. And we were already weeks late!

The hospital ship is supposedly going to take weeks to arrive in NYC, when (if we're lucky), we'll be coming off the peak. It'll probably help but it'll be too late to be optimal.

It's like it's not urgent, still! Insanity. I am fairly sure that the President has no concept of exponential growth. His strategy is mind-boggling, as every second he waits reduces the (fading) chances of his re-election. And more importantly leads to more death.

Unbelievable.

I understand the emotion but I think that's a little harsh.....Birx and Fauci have made great progress in getting the US' response off the ground.

Getting Roche & Thermo to ramp up to produce millions of kits a week is also impressive and getting the first vaccine test started is unbelievably fast. Yes, they started late but they're making great progress in moving forward particularly with the hospital ships.

btw: DiBlasio leadership in NYC has been pitiful (Cuomo good) with his dithering on measures and bad personal optics (ie going to the health club) which will make the breakout much worse in the city.

 

[durkie]

Yes, of course the liberals cannot stand any positive praise for president Trump. Do you deny that banning travel from China back in January delayed the travel of the China Wuhan virus to US? It likely arrived in the US from the EU, notably Italy, not directly from China due to the earlier travel restriction.

This is demonstrably false. You can trace the genetic origins of United States cases and all of the initial cases came from China. It was in at least 7 cities by the time China restrictions were in place: auspice

 

[electracity]

how does temperature affect it? slows the deactivation (is that the right word?) I would assume.

if I have contaminated surfaces that are going into the fridge or freezer, would there be a general scale factor for the corrected 'safe to use at' date?

are people really (going to) wipe every surface from food and packaged goods, that enter your household? or put them into a 'holding room' (if you have space) and wait for the safety time?

such strange new concepts, sigh. we're all going to have to learn to be 'home lab technicians', now.

I've started spraying everything down with hydrogen peroxide before I bring it in the house. Just takes a minute. Boxes and bags stay outside. The Whole Foods delivery guy was recorded wheezing by my doorbell cam yesterday. How many people in the supply chain touch the stuff before it comes in the house.?

This process still feels like overkill currently. But it seems to me that the maths say otherwise. I'll bet that in two weeks people will be doing many freaky things to ward off the virus.

Also I'm stuck at home, so why not be thorough? If I was chasing kids around while trying to work I probably would not be so careful. But then I would also be younger and less at risk.

As far as cold, I believe shipping live virus is done with dry ice. Freezing preserves. So treating freezer bags as possibly contaminated probably makes sense. Again, not a big effort IMO. Just takes being a bit thoughtful in the kitchen.

Hopefully my efforts turn out to be an over reaction. In balance I prefer possibly wasting some effort today over feeling regret of not having done enough prevention if I get sick.

 

[linux-works]

My wife and I bought groceries early Monday morning. Perishables we brought in, and decontaminated best we could. We used my car since we only need hers this week as we are both on vacation. Everything else will sit in the car for at least 72 hours with a bit of Lysol. Probably above and beyond, but, I shopped for my parents as well and want to do everything to keep them isolated.

I think this will be more common, as people catch on.

some houses have what's know as a 'mud room', where you can go from the entrance of the house into the clean portions, thru this area. wonder if we'll start seeing a 'bio-hazzard quarantine' (so to speak) storage areas.

I bought some UV-C lighting and I'm going to see what I can do with it. I do understand that it should be inside a sealed container and away from eyes and skin. not something you put 'in a room' unless you really take lots of safeguards. a box and timer DIY thing will keep me busy while I'm stuck inside for the next 3 weeks

 

[linux-works]

It is only a matter of weeks before we are seeing Italy in the rear view mirror.

you mean, we can finally beat ferraris, lambos, maseratis ?

oh, right, you don't literally mean the rear view mirror. gotcha.

My maserati does 185
The roads are empty; now I can drive!

 

[tander]

Please cancel it. My brother-in-law is a dentist and has stopped taking appointments except for emergencies (per ADA recommendations).
ADA recommending dentists postpone elective procedures

My understanding is that a lot of what dentists do causes aerosolization of basically everything in the mouth, making it a high-risk for transmission of viruses.

Definitely thinking about it, even if I'm not coughing they are still going to inches away from my mouth for a while, already called to make sure they still wanted me to come. It's for a crown which isn't exactly elective but it's not an emergency either. They are closing after tomorrow for at least a week. Tricky because I bet there are a lot of people walking around with allergies, or a mild case of the virus. In my state they hardly have any tests available so it's tough to really know the extent.

This is a good vid talking about the difference between the stated cases that have come up positive after testing, and the actual number which is a lot higherhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk&list=WL&index=4&t=0s

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

DiBlasio leadership in NYC has been pitiful (Cuomo good) with his dithering on measures and bad personal optics (ie going to the health club) which will make the breakout much worse in the city.

Yeah that guy is weird. DiBlasio seems like a bit of an idiot. I'm not sure why they are waiting to put the city on full lockdown. Super odd.

. Yes, they started late but they're making great progress in moving forward particularly with the hospital ships.

Yeah, but testing already existed, and all that mattered was time, so "starting late" is kind of a big failing - especially when it was OBVIOUS that you had to be testing. And apparently we didn't push for that either. The problem is the message came from the top that "all was well," and that put about 40-60% of the population at ease. The message should have been: "look for this virus - if you are unwell or know someone is unwell with these symptoms, please go here to get tested."

Basically, the message from the top was "We closed the borders so we will be fine" - which has never worked and never will work. The CDC wasn't sending that message - they kept on saying community spread was likely. Why wasn't that message amplified and appropriate measures taken?

And the hospital ship is not going to be in New York until April, apparently. There are going to be 30k cases in New York City by then.

The numbers are hard to count but apparently we're only at 20k tests a day, but ramping quickly. That seems pretty low after two months.

 

[linux-works]

Please, someone, tell me what the president of the US should have done back in January or early February that would have been better then the travel ban from China?

one word: resigned

 

[linux-works]

US tax day (apr 15) extended:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-20-17.pdf