Coronavirus

[jerry33]

May 18, 1980 is the "next day" mentioned. So the "40 years ago today" is now 5 days ago.

There is a difference between an opening up plan with safeguards in place that have worked in a company's other factory and a situation where there are no possible safeguards. Comparing apples to spiders.

That said, Texas opened up last week. We went for a drive (bio defense on) yesterday to a local park and there were only two people with masks out of at least one hundred. You can't fix stupid.

 

[dhanson865]

There is a difference between an opening up plan with safeguards in place that have worked in a company's other factory and a situation where there are no possible safeguards. Comparing apples to spiders.

That said, Texas opened up last week. We went for a drive (bio defense on) yesterday to a local park and there were only two people with masks out of at least one hundred. You can't fix stupid.

no argument there. I posted it because I found it interesting, not because I thought it was perfect.

 

[SageBrush]

That said, Texas opened up last week. We went for a drive (bio defense on) yesterday to a local park and there were only two people with masks out of at least one hundred. You can't fix stupid.

I agree although I am inclined to say that masks and ventilation inside public bldgs are a whole lot more important than masks outside. It also helps if people cover their mouth and nose with the mask. You might think that goes without saying, but not in NM

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There is a difference between an opening up plan with safeguards in place that have worked in a company's other factory

I'm still looking to find some data on a Tesla factory that has opened up without issues. I'm having a hard time finding the data on Gigafactory Nevada (sounds like maybe it has only had partial operations up until today or last week or something?) and New York. And there is some casting factory too I guess? Shanghai doesn't really apply since they didn't have any coronavirus there.

Should be interesting to see whether these measures are effective when there is a virus present. Would be good to have some data on what Tesla has done so far in the US, to allow us to maybe predict what might happen in Fremont. (At least it could provide some data that would indicate that it COULD be safe.)

 

[madodel]

I agree although I am inclined to say that masks and ventilation inside public bldgs are a whole lot more important than masks outside. It also helps if people cover their mouth and nose with the mask. You might think that goes without saying, but not in NM

TV showing an open gym in Houston with no one wearing a mask. I get that it is uncomfortable to wear a mask, but I'd think in a gym, with people exercizing, viruses will be spewed everywhere. They said the state announced no local government can issue a citation or fine for not wearing masks, so the city is handing out masks to people without them but can't force them to wear them and they are doing it outside anyway.

 

[Norbert]

Worldometers has recently added some mortality / IFR and other calculations.
Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Using numbers from New York City, they calculated an IFR of 1.4% :

After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC = 23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City.

Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

Actual Cases with an outcome as of May 1 = estimated actual recovered (1,671,351) + estimated actual deaths (23,430) = 1,694,781.

Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766367

The Los Angeles study is in JAMA now. Note, I believe it used the same questionable antibody tests as the Santa Clara study (I'm not 100% sure about this). To me the uncertainty in that test performance is the biggest open question here. There are other issues regarding selection of participants and how representative a sample they are, I suppose.

To be clear, Drs Bhattacharya and Bendavid are involved. That means, unfortunately, that we must be very skeptical.

They still end up with a lower bound of 24x the number of infections as detected cases. Keep an eye on Twitter today for further analysis.

Here is one demographic discussion:

Natalie E. Dean, PhD on Twitter

 

[bkp_duke]

All these reports of stupid people. . .


Anyone think we will see Wave 2 BEFORE August?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

All these reports of stupid people. . .


Anyone think we will see Wave 2 BEFORE August?

I certainly see it as possible. Though I would kind of view it as phase 2 of wave 1. I'm still hopeful that somehow if they can figure out how to target testing properly, they'll be able to get out ahead of this and limit Rt. Also the other forcing factors and potential unknown positive factors (some cross-reactive immunity, maybe?) might slow things down.

I also think a large percentage of people are probably behaving responsibly - as long as they continue to protect themselves it may be that the wave is limited. If things do start to go bad in the next couple weeks, there will be ample incentive for them to maintain their procedures and stay safe.

I kind of wouldn't be too surprised either way, though if I were forced to bet, I would bet on a significant uptick in cases in June and July in places that have been more lax.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection
Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection even though it isn't a proven treatment


Lolololololololol

 

[Daniel in SD]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection
Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection even though it isn't a proven treatment


Lolololololololol

Hmmmm...

Psychiatric side effects of chloroquine seem to be rare, but may manifest in a wide range of symptoms, such as confusion, disorientation, ideas of persecution, agitation, outbursts of violence, loss of interest, feeling sad, suicidal ideas and impaired insight.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318111526_Psychiatric_adverse_effects_of_chloroquine

 

[bkp_duke]

Hmmmm...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318111526_Psychiatric_adverse_effects_of_chloroquine

So this @#$% has been in the water for a long time, eh?









(only half joking)

 

[Dave EV]

In the good news segment:

At at least one Home Depot here in San Diego County yesterday (a coworker reported similar last week at another store), this was the scene when I performed a curbside order pickup:

• Typical Sunday late afternoon sized crowd in the parking lot
• Clear signs directing customers to curbside order pickup - employee checking you in and calling in order with a runner inside the store bringing it out
• All employees and all customers wearing masks in parking lot (and thus presumably inside as well)
• Line to enter store to prevent excess capacity inside - clear markings to keep people spaced out while waiting

Curbside pickup worked great. They had a designated area in the parking lot with a dozen numbered spots to wait. This is probably the lowest risk method of picking up goods as well, not just for customers, but for employees as well as it's done outside.

 

[TespaceX]

I certainly see it as possible. Though I would kind of view it as phase 2 of wave 1. I'm still hopeful that somehow if they can figure out how to target testing properly, they'll be able to get out ahead of this and limit Rt. Also the other forcing factors and potential unknown positive factors (some cross-reactive immunity, maybe?) might slow things down.

I also think a large percentage of people are probably behaving responsibly - as long as they continue to protect themselves it may be that the wave is limited. If things do start to go bad in the next couple weeks, there will be ample incentive for them to maintain their procedures and stay safe.

I kind of wouldn't be too surprised either way, though if I were forced to bet, I would bet on a significant uptick in cases in June and July in places that have been more lax.

I sure hope so.
Even in SF Bay Area, some people seem to be more relaxed about precautions now that restrictions have become relaxed. Just yesterday, I had to run some errands and saw a few people at local FedEx and Home Depot without masks or masks just pulled down to the chin, including a couple employees. And I’ve heard from a family friend that many people just don’t even bother to bring a mask in the Sacramento area. I can only imagine how it’s like in the Midwest and Southern states. At least from the pictures of Georgia reopenings, no one seems to care at all.

 

[HG Wells]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection
Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection even though it isn't a proven treatment


Lolololololololol

I am sure the prescribing Doctor specified the brand as PLACEBO.
Trump likes to chew them like candy.

 

[madodel]

I am sure the prescribing Doctor specified the brand as PLACEBO.
Trump likes to chew them like candy.

I thought he prefers to snort his candy. Sniff-sniff

 

[renim]

MSN article about blood markers .....Two of the compounds, ferritin and C-reactive protein or CRP, are common blood markers for inflammation. The others are linked to heart damage and blood clotting, namely troponin, BNP and so-called “D-dimers”.Doctors raise hopes of blood test for children with coronavirus-linked syndrome

No surprise there, they ALL also hold for the adults too.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is the phase where they find out the infection rate is more like 30%. Starting in "June or July". What's your hurry?

Exclusive: CDC plans sweeping COVID-19 antibody study in 25 metropolitan areas

 

[Dash-8]

Hmmmm...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318111526_Psychiatric_adverse_effects_of_chloroquine

Trump says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine in case he gets coronavirus

 

[renim]

Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection
Trump says he takes hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus infection even though it isn't a proven treatment


Lolololololololol

From a Lupus web page.
Plaquenil is a slow-acting drug, meaning that it can take up to 6 months to experience the full benefits of this medication, but it is possible for symptoms to improve in as few as 1 or 2 months. Plaquenil and other antimalarials are the key to controlling lupus long-term, and some lupus pa....

Point is, Its a slow medication, best used before exposure not after...