CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[aesculus]

Powerwalls don't help much if there isn't anything to store.

Not from an energy perspective, but they certainly do from a financial perspective. Being able to fill them with cheaper off peak energy and then use that during peak can help the bottom line a lot. And theoretically it helps energywise too, at least it would when energy costs represent the actual availability of power.

 

[RKCRLR]

Not from an energy perspective, but they certainly do from a financial perspective. Being able to fill them with cheaper off peak energy and then use that during peak can help the bottom line a lot. And theoretically it helps energywise too, at least it would when energy costs represent the actual availability of power.

I agree but when my NEM 2 grandfathering runs out I'm going to wind up paying a lot more for energy because I don't produce enough to self consume in the winter months and my summer production credits will be greatly reduced.

 

[wwu123]

Not from an energy perspective, but they certainly do from a financial perspective. Being able to fill them with cheaper off peak energy and then use that during peak can help the bottom line a lot. And theoretically it helps energywise too, at least it would when energy costs represent the actual availability of power.

I was gonna reply the same, that you can still arbitrage the rates at <$0.20 kwh for those 500 kwh/month in winter, which is nontrivial benefit under NEM1/2/3. But after thinking about it, I think aesculus was alluding to the broader loss of banking ample summer credits to offset winter net consumption under NEM3

 

[Dave EV]

I know how NEM 3.0 drastically reduces the export rates and makes the return on solar much longer, unless you have powerwalls.

I was calculating my own system and I wonder if I'm missing some key points since it seems NEM 3.0 could actually be more advantageous? I just installed a PV solar that can produce 18000kwh/year, but my current usage is 10000kwh/year and I oversized it since everyone suggests it and I may convert to furnace heat pumps and add more EVs in the future. I also installed 2 powerwalls.

My assumptions are that with NEM 2.0 and NEM 3.0, I won't be paying anything monthly for electricity because of my 2 powerwalls since I can just shift my power usage to during sunlight hours (charging EV, running AC which I use 10-20x/year). Generated solar will go to my 2 EVs, powerwalls, powering the house and then exporting to grid if there's still excess.

There are certain months and hours of the year, specifically September, where you can export to the grid at rates of $2.5/kwh. If I can somehow time it to export during those times and months in Aug-Sep, won't I technically be getting even more cash back from the utility company? Am I crazy to think that my return could actually be quicker if I am on NEM 3.0??? Lots of assumptions and my electric usage behavior may change, but does the math check out? Tesla app has a function to export everything - does NEM 3.0 allow this on PGE?

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The short answer without actually running any calculations is that I fail to to see how you can come to the conclusion that NEM3.0 is better than 2.0 based on the fact that for 2 hours for every day in September, you can export at $2.54-2.87/kWh. When the 95% of the time you're typically getting 10-20% of the retail value. With NEM3.0 - can you even use Powerwalls to export to the grid? I can't recall the details of when or when not residential customers are allowed to export stored battery power to the grid.

Anyway, assume that you can, say you have two Powerwalls and can export all of the energy stored in them during those 2 hours - 27 kWh. Now, you can't actually export faster than 5 kW / Powerwall, so that takes you down to 20 kWh total. Let's also just take the $2.87 to make the math easier. That's $57.40/day for 31 days or $1780/yr. In reality, you will need to self consume a decent amount of that 20 kWh, so you won't be able to export it all.

Two Powerwalls is going to cost you $20k, installed, or about 11 years simple payback. Now the Powerwalls will also allow you to further offset TOU rates and encourage self-consumption, but that largely doesn't matter with NEM2.0 given how inexpensive solar is. $20k will get you 7 kW of solar with Tesla, which will generate at least 10 MWh/yr in most of California. Even if you assume only $0.25 / kWh average, that's $2500/yr.

 

[Dave EV]

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BTW, this is a great chart that highlights the madness of hourly export compensation rates without having retail/import TOU rates to match.

What do you think would happen to demand if retail rates matched the export compensation rates with a NBC fee?

If retail rates better reflected actual costs, you can guarantee that a lot of people would start shifting loads to all the orange areas on the chart and away from the blue areas and the actual costs would even out a lot thanks to simple economics. Basically free energy from Mar-April during the middle of the day? Sign me up!

Super high rates from 6-8 PM in Aug-Sep? You better believe I'm going to pre-cool my buildings and let the AC coast during those hours.

And then the net result is that the spread in rates will decrease.

Instead, we have the insane decoupling of import/export rates. And for some crazy reason in most of the year you have average rates of $0.04-0.06 / kWh when the retail rates are $0.35-0.80 / kWh.

 

[holeydonut]

Haha, in 2035 the PG&E bill will include some integral calculus formula to "easily" communicate how the TOU rates and ACC exports were compared with the specific per-second readings of energy across the meter along with an estimated home consumption behind the meter. Only @Redhill_qik will be able to understand their energy bills.

 

[MountainRatMat]

My site assessment is scheduled for April 12th. Wish me luck

I guess I should just count on NEM 3.0 at this point. Maybe I'll get an F150 lightning with V2G capability and just leave it parked and plugged in.

 

[Dave EV]

Maybe I'll get an F150 lightning with V2G capability and just leave it parked and plugged in.

Any idea how much power the F150 pulls when awake and not doing anything?

Maximizing self-consumption by using batteries is one way to maximize NEM3.0 benefits, but I also fear that future TOU rate adjustments will continue to move NEM1.0/NEM2.0 closer to NEM3.0 rates.

For example, if you look at SDG&E EV-TOU5 rates (the required rate structure under NEM3.0), the super-off-peak rates are around $0.15/kWh currently. This covers 12am-6am weekdays and 12am-2pm weekends and holidays and weekdays Mar-Apr. Peak rates (4pm-9pm) in the summer are $0.82 / kWh and off-peak rates (all other times) are $0.48 / kWh.

Without batteries, you need to export 5.5 kWh of super-off-peak energy to get the value of 1 kWh of on-peak energy and 1.7 kWh of off-peak energy to get the value of 1 kWh of on-peak energy.

NEM3.0 rates cut your export values to pennies nearly all the time, outside of a couple hours in the late summer.

Here are preliminary PG&E export rates - assuming SDG&E rates are similar, there's basically 2-3 hours out of the 288 hours shown (chart doesn't show weekend/holiday rates) where export compensation rates exceed the retail rate.

 

[Ampster]

I also fear that future TOU rate adjustments will continue to move NEM1.0/NEM2.0 closer to NEM3.0 rates.

I agree. I recently read a California Energy Commission policy directive that will require the IOUs to begin implementing hourly rates periods beginning April 1, 2023. I just changed from EV2 to TOU C effective March 29th because the latter rate gave me a greater value for my solar production for the better part of the day. That benefit may be short lived.. I did not trust the PG&E rate analyzer so I built a spreadsheet that had the YOU periods in it. That spreadsheet will have to get a lot bigger if that policy is adopted.

 

[SanDiegoM3]

Any idea how much power the F150 pulls when awake and not doing anything?

Maximizing self-consumption by using batteries is one way to maximize NEM3.0 benefits, but I also fear that future TOU rate adjustments will continue to move NEM1.0/NEM2.0 closer to NEM3.0 rates.

For example, if you look at SDG&E EV-TOU5 rates (the required rate structure under NEM3.0), the super-off-peak rates are around $0.15/kWh currently. This covers 12am-6am weekdays and 12am-2pm weekends and holidays and weekdays Mar-Apr. Peak rates (4pm-9pm) in the summer are $0.82 / kWh and off-peak rates (all other times) are $0.48 / kWh.

Without batteries, you need to export 5.5 kWh of super-off-peak energy to get the value of 1 kWh of on-peak energy and 1.7 kWh of off-peak energy to get the value of 1 kWh of on-peak energy.

NEM3.0 rates cut your export values to pennies nearly all the time, outside of a couple hours in the late summer.

Here are preliminary PG&E export rates - assuming SDG&E rates are similar, there's basically 2-3 hours out of the 288 hours shown (chart doesn't show weekend/holiday rates) where export compensation rates exceed the retail rate.

You shouldn't be on EV-TOU5 if you have solar, you should be on EV-TOU2. That being said, since 2018 SDGE has increased the spread from super off peak to peak on EV-TOU2 from 2.35x to 2.92x. The spread for EV-TOU5 is relatively stable fluctuating back and forth between 5.7x in 2018 to 6.4x in 2021 to 5.3x now because they boosted super off peak to 15 cents. The normal TOU-DR spread increased from 27% higher to 43% higher over the same period. There's a practical limit to how high they can play this game though because they're dealing with real people who aren't on solar and the higher the spread battery economics improves and even more customers arbitrage overnight rates.

Ultimately, my strategy was to over produce with a 7.2kWh system. Even with my M3 I should still produce more kWh than I consume.

 

[Dave EV]

You shouldn't be on EV-TOU5 if you have solar, you should be on EV-TOU2. That being said, since 2018 SDGE has increased the spread from super off peak to peak on EV-TOU2 from 2.35x to 2.92x. The spread for EV-TOU5 is relatively stable fluctuating back and forth between 5.7x in 2018 to 6.4x in 2021 to 5.3x now because they boosted super off peak to 15 cents. The normal TOU-DR spread increased from 27% higher to 43% higher over the same period. There's a practical limit to how high they can play this game though because they're dealing with real people who aren't on solar and the higher the spread battery economics improves and even more customers arbitrage overnight rates.

Ultimately, my strategy was to over produce with a 7.2kWh system. Even with my M3 I should still produce more kWh than I consume.

With the size of the system that I have, it works out much cheaper to use EV-TOU5 instead of EV-TOU2 on NEM1.0 or NEM2.0.

The On-Peak and Off-Peak rates of the two plans are basically the same, but the Super-Off-Peak rate is currently around half.

So as long as you're a net consumer during Super-Off-Peak by enough to offset the fixed meter fee of $16, you're better off on EV-TOU5. This ends up being around 110 kWh / month to break even.

Yeah, if your system is be enough to get close to net zero or overgenerate, then you're likely better off on EV-TOU2 or DR-SES.

It's too bad the rate plan estimator isn't on the SDGE website anymore, that was super-useful to calculate your estimated cost on different plans.

 

[a_ronaghi]

Is anyone here doing a new construction?

* PG&E will make an exception for new construction projects unable to submit a completed application by the sunset date. If the load application is submitted by the NEM2 Sunset date, the project will be eligible for NEM2, provided the site is energized under the same Service Point Notification. This refers to the “Project Number” or “Notification Number”. To retain this eligibility, final electrical clearance must be granted by 04/15/2026.

I applied for new service connection (PG&E, without Solar) back in November. They have an expected service hookup date of 5/16. Tesla is asking me for Electric Service Agreement ID* and Meter Number*, two things I don't have since I don't have electrical service yet. I do however have. project # and notification number for my PG&E hookup.

I don't know how to interpret their guidance with new constructions. Should we leave those two fields empty until we get them from PG&E? Where do we reference the notification # or project # on the NEM application?

I will be calling PG&E to figure this out as well ...

Thanks!

 

[Dave EV]

NEM3.0 isn't even here yet, but already the utilities are trying to jack up rates even more and further screw over distributed solar:

SDG&E Seeks Major Reform of Residential Electric Rates with Flat Rate Plan

San Diego Gas & Electric has asked the state to approve a major reform of electric rates that the utility says will lower costs for most low- and moderate-income customers and prepare for phasing out natural gas appliances and gasoline-powered vehicles.

timesofsandiego.com

I disagree that we should be using energy bills effectively as taxes. If we're going to subsidize the bills of low-income customers (which I don't have issues with), I would much rather just pay more income taxes - a flat fixed charge for each meter is a bad way to do it.

BTW - I have the same issue with the climate credit - poor implementation of a good idea.

But the arguments that this will make it more cost effective to continue to move from gas to electricity, doesn't make sense.

Utilities are regulated in how much they can charge for electricity - if electricity usage goes up because more EVs are being charged, heat pumps are replacing furnaces, etc, assuming generation costs stay the same (not a given, I know), then delivery charges should naturally go down as the existing infrastructure is used more effectively.

This rate structure may benefit low-income customers without solar, it will also help high-income customers who also currently use a lot of electricity.

Using their example of $0.47/kWh as the existing rate and $0.27 as the new rate and a maximum fixed charge of $128/mo, if you use more than 640 kWh/mo, your bill will be lower! (640 * $0.47 = $300.80 and $128 + ($0.27 * 640) = $300.80). I guarantee you that there is a highly correlated association between income and energy usage since your typical higher income person will have a big house with A/C, pool, lots of electronics, etc.

So at the end of the day, this is just another solar tax.

 

[getakey]

I'm guessing the solar companies have a lot of backlog to fill for people who got their paperwork in before April 14. How long before Residential Solar industry tanks under NEM3? I'm guessing 1 year

 

[Dave EV]

I'm guessing the solar companies have a lot of backlog to fill for people who got their paperwork in before April 14. How long before Residential Solar industry tanks under NEM3? I'm guessing 1 year

I would not be surprised to see that most decent solar companies have a 6-12 month backlog at the moment.

I would would not be surprised to see that if the proposed flat rate plans are going to happen, this encourages a bunch of people to cancel their contracts and forefit their deposits.

12 months is a reasonable estimate to see solar shops start closing up. Once they see the order backlog dry up and lack of new sales come in and how anti-solar regulations are making things, the only people for home solar will make sense are low-income customers.

But with high interest rates and the upheaval with NET-metering and rate schedules jumping all over the place, a lot of people are going to shy away from a long term investment with a lot of uncertainty in rates.

 

[mspohr]

More obstruction from CPUC

California utilities commission rejects solar microgrid proposal

The commission deemed Sunnova's application to be an attempt to create a monopoly, while simultaneously showing affinity toward investor-owned utility-run microgrids.

pv-magazine-usa.com

A large coalition of industry advocates and environmentalists, called the Microgrid Resources Coalition (MRC), filed a response to the PAO’s suggested rejection. “We believe that the Proposed Decision, if adopted, would become the latest in a long line of decisions in which the Commission does a disservice to the citizens of California by ignoring the contribution that distributed generation, and microgrids in particular, can make to resolving the state’s ongoing crisis of grid inadequacy

The fact is that we are closing in rapidly on five years since the enactment of SB 1399 and not only has the widespread deployment of microgrids envisioned by the statute not materialized, but the Commission has not taken the necessary actions which would enable it to start materializing,” said the Solar Energy Industries Association in a filing with the CPUC.

I find this accusation a somewhat odd,” said Meghan Nutting, executive vice president, regulatory and government affairs in a pv magazine interview. “Californians must take service from a utility if they are in investor-owned utility territory. This microutility application provides customers with an alternative to the monopoly.”

What’s more, on the same day the Sunnova application was rejected CPUC approved a $200 million program for the major investor-owned utilities to run their own microgrid programs.

 

[sorka]

Just realized that this:

$92 / month fixed charge coming to your PG&E bill

....if you make over $180K / year. https://www.siliconvalley.com/2023/04/12/pge-month-bill-jump-electric-gas-price-consumer-utility-income-economy/ Surprised there isn't a big thread blowing up about this. This is another corrupt money grab by the IOUs and CPUC. They're trying to bill it as a...

teslamotorsclub.com

Is exactly the same as the previous $8 / kw / month charge as the previous proposal but cleverly hidden in a wolf wearing sheep's clothing. Should that thread be merged into this one?

 

[h2ofun]

Just realized that this:

$92 / month fixed charge coming to your PG&E bill

....if you make over $180K / year. https://www.siliconvalley.com/2023/04/12/pge-month-bill-jump-electric-gas-price-consumer-utility-income-economy/ Surprised there isn't a big thread blowing up about this. This is another corrupt money grab by the IOUs and CPUC. They're trying to bill it as a...

teslamotorsclub.com

Is exactly the same as the previous $8 / kw / month charge as the previous proposal but cleverly hidden in a wolf wearing sheep's clothing. Should that thread be merged into this one?

what happened to the link, does not work for me

 

[dareed1]

PG&E monthly bills could jump for many customers due to new state law
They're reporting on a proposal, contrary to the headline and first paragraph.

 

[RKCRLR]

I don't have a problem with a flat fee but it should be the same for everyone or based on actual costs for being connected. If the fee is determined to too much of a burden for lower income households then that subsidy should come from somewhere else, not directly from ratepayers.