Do you think the Model 3's value will hold well past its four-year warranty?

[internalaudit]

I understand over in the States, you will have the $7,500 federal tax credit and various state incentives. In my Canadian province, Ontario, for currently we have a $14k CAD after tax incentive

So once these incentives are gone, expect any BEV, especially a TM3 with good demand, to hold its value extremely well in the first two years.

Correct me if I am wrong but I'm under the impression that:

1. we cannot buy an ESA on a used (non-CPO) Tesla
2. CPO Tesla's have some limited warranty but aren't eligible for the ESA
3. the ESA is transferable

My concern is post-warranty if you cannot buy an ESA because the average S and X major repair work seems to dwarf a lot of repair bills for ICEV. Again, maybe it's just an assumption.


Edmunds 2016 Best Retained Value® Awards
2016 Best Retained Value Awards

10 Cars With the Slowest Depreciation (2012 to 2016) --> about 25% depreciation for the top 10 cars:
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-with-the-slowest-depreciation

 

[Hawesome]

Hey, I have ordered the model 3, have you as well? maybe we can keep each other informed if configuration option comes our way!!!

 

[internalaudit]

Yes, March 31st for 2019 delivery in Canada. Still want to read up on initial quality though.

 

[chillaban]

I find speculation around the resale value of a car to wild guessing. With regards to the Model S and X, repair costs would not be what concern me — even the crazy repairs are nothing unusual compared to other cars in the $80k-160k price range.

The bigger thing that drives Tesla resale value down is the sheer rate of improvement of their cars. For example, the 75D nearly negated all of the reasons why one would've bought an 85 or 85D, and the uncork changed even more of that. And that's just events that happened in the last 3 months. The rate of improvement makes Teslas more like smartphones than traditional cars that tend to have a major refresh every 5 years and only mild changing of options or pricing in between. It's anyone's guess how the value holds up in 3 years, or where Tesla will price CPO's which has a pretty strong impact on what kind of prices you can get for selling the car yourself.

 

[run-the-joules]

Impossible to know. If resale matters, don't buy new.

 

[206er]

Probably.

 

[Khan3]

Will the model 3 hold value over 4 years ??? My thinking is that , in terms of holding value Tesla will be its worst enemy.

In the next 4 years , I expect:

1. New Tesla's with further range 400 - 600 miles probably at the same price as the LR
2. New Tesla's that can support 350kw charging
3. Per [2] really fast charge up times 5 to 15 minutes
4. Autopilot 3.0 and possibly 4.0 hardware
5. Updated styling
6. Better charging standards and possibly different charging hardware

So yes, I expect the value to drop ... possibly significantly, but specifically because EV technologies are not 'mature' and is still developing pretty fast.

I STILL WANT ONE

 

[SageBrush]

As usual, OP is asking a straw man

Technology will hopefully progress. All we can do today is ask ourselves if the tech today will serve our needs for the reasonable future

 

[igotzzoom]

FWIW, it seems values are pretty strong for the Model S compared to its ICE peers. Same can't be said for the Leaf or 500e.

 

[internalaudit]

Impossible to know. If resale matters, don't buy new.

Even if I don't plan on selling a brand new M3, knowing does help if I am in the market for another (used one) five years from now.

 

[internalaudit]

Will the model 3 hold value over 4 years ??? My thinking is that , in terms of holding value Tesla will be its worst enemy.

In the next 4 years , I expect:

1. New Tesla's with further range 400 - 600 miles probably at the same price as the LR
2. New Tesla's that can support 350kw charging
3. Per [2] really fast charge up times 5 to 15 minutes
4. Autopilot 3.0 and possibly 4.0 hardware
5. Updated styling
6. Better charging standards and possibly different charging hardware

So yes, I expect the value to drop ... possibly significantly, but specifically because EV technologies are not 'mature' and is still developing pretty fast.

I STILL WANT ONE

It will depend on competing BEVs. Even if Tesla outdates the present cars, if they are reliable and better spec'd than other new BEVs, there will still be decent demand that will put a floor on resale values.

 

[run-the-joules]

Even if I don't plan on selling a brand new M3, knowing does help if I am in the market for another (used one) five years from now.

No matter what data they claim to support it, everyone is making up their answer.

 

[Khan3]

It will depend on competing BEVs. Even if Tesla outdates the present cars, if they are reliable and better spec'd than other new BEVs, there will still be decent demand that will put a floor on resale values.

So, I'm looking at this along the lines of iphone 1, 2, 3. I got an iphone 1 ... it was way ahead of its time and super cool. But those were early days. Apple quickly pushed the product with a much bigger better screen and updated the comms and the compute power and everyone just had to have the latest and greatest. Only one group of people were snapping up the old iphone 1's and 2's ... those looking for a 'great deal' ... they liked the product, but didnt want to pay that much for it.

I think it will be the same deal here ... and I think it will really push down the resale values.

Everyone keeps talking about the paradigm shift that'll happen as we transit to EVs ... I think resale values will be one of them. Right now there is not much difference between a 2012 Corolla and a 2017 Corolla besides styling (really ... what else changes?). So depreciation is somewhat limited, just scaled down for age and use. As we move forward depreciation is going to be both age/use + obsolescence as new and better tech comes out with each vehicle ... get used to it.

 

[Runt8]

My strategy for cars:

1. Buy a new car that I really enjoy.
2. Pay it off early and drive it for at least 10 years.
3. Sell it for whatever I can get for it.

This way I don’t care about depreciation. The only concern is choosing one that’s reliable enough to last a decade without massive repair bills.

 

[FlyingKiwi]

I think Khan3 has nailed it.. Its immature and rapidly changing technology, it going to be the equivalent of an iphone 1 in a few years.. was way ahead of the competition, but everybody will have a new whiz-bang EV with better range/charging/styling in 5 years.

 

[ChadS]

I agree that technology improvements mean used EVs won't be as desirable as new ones. That is clear. But a used EV at some point - nobody knows exactly when is the trick - will be worth more than a used ICE. Especially if demand ramps up faster than manufacturing (at least manufacturing of desirable EVs).

Just like always, we can't predict the future and really don't know what will happen. Steep depreciation absolutely could happen...but absolutely is not a given. For some period of time, resale values could be fantastic.

 

[TaoJones]

I would expect a 4-year old Model 3 to have a valuation equal to 67%-80% less than new.

The spread being due to the method of sale (private party versus trade-in) and to an extent the range.

 

[juanmedina]

I would expect a 4-year old Model 3 to have a valuation equal to 67%-80% less than new.

The spread being due to the method of sale (private party versus trade-in) and to an extent the range.

From 50k to 10k I am not sure I can't live with that. I really want the model 3 but I hate loosing money.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I hope not. That's really 2022 or later, and I'd hope by then that the 2018 Model 3 will be seriously outdated.

 

[Dexterryu]

I'd say if your concerned about this to lease it instead of buy it. I plan on keeping mine for 10 years.