Does HW4 matter

[CTruck_BMW]

As I indicated, I am in the process of buying a 2022 or 2023 MS or maybe MX. How important is it that I go for a new or fairly new 2023 to get the HW4? Will I regret it in the future if I get HW3? What really am I losing by just having HW3 instead of HW4?

I envision that I will be on a subscription model and be a user for the FSD.... is the HW3 really as good as HW4... why the change if HW3 was already good?

 

[mswlogo]

who’s crystal ball should we use to answer?

 

[Joey D]

I can only tell you what I did: I waited specifically for HW4 before getting my S. That being said, neither I (nor anyone else) has any idea "how important it will be." Right now, in fact, HW4 cars are less capable than HW3 cars. (Can't do summon / smart summon, cant get FSD Beta...). That support is "coming"...but when is really anyone's guess.

Part of your decision (IMO) should be based on how long you expect to own the car. For me, I expect to own mine for 10 years. Given that...I did not want to be looking back for many years thinking "why didn't I just wait a few more months or spend a few more $$$ for HW4?". If you think you will only own this car for say 3ish years...I wouldn't worry about which hardware version. If you think you'll own it for 3-5 years...then it's probably a toss up. For more than 5 years, I would get one with HW4. Again, this isn't because I actually know what value it will bring...just based on my expectation that there will in fact be some value.

 

[CTruck_BMW]

who’s crystal ball should we use to answer?

Not sure why the sarcastic comment. Seems pretty common on Tesla forums not sure why. If you don't have a useful answer, just pass. Clearly am not an experienced Tesla owner/fan and just trying to figure it all out and learn about Tesla's stuff. If my question seems a bit ridiculous or silly to you, that's fine.

I asked because I thought there might be some articles or leaked info somewhere. Being new to Tesla stuff in general, there is no way I could tell without asking before I start to figure it out all myself as to what kind if info might already be there vs impossible to get.

 

[CTruck_BMW]

I can only tell you what I did: I waited specifically for HW4 before getting my S. That being said, neither I (nor anyone else) has any idea "how important it will be." Right now, in fact, HW4 cars are less capable than HW3 cars. (Can't do summon / smart summon, cant get FSD Beta...). That support is "coming"...but when is really anyone's guess.

Part of your decision (IMO) should be based on how long you expect to own the car. For me, I expect to own mine for 10 years. Given that...I did not want to be looking back for many years thinking "why didn't I just wait a few more months or spend a few more $$$ for HW4?". If you think you will only own this car for say 3ish years...I wouldn't worry about which hardware version. If you think you'll own it for 3-5 years...then it's probably a toss up. For more than 5 years, I would get one with HW4. Again, this isn't because I actually know what value it will bring...just based on my expectation that there will in fact be some value.

I guess another way of making a prediction, how big of a difference was there between HW2 vs HW3? Are they both able to do FSD? Even though this can be a non-scientific approach, but it might be at least an indicator.

Watching some YouTube videos, seems to me that HW3 with FSD is doing an awesome job in a way am not sure I would care if they improve it further because the software is already doing an awesome job.... isn't?

 

[Ciaopec]

Not sure @mswlogo was really being sarcastic. Realistic if anything. I have a 2016 MS that was supposed to be many things that it is not. I have a 2021 MY and its FSD is far less capable than the 2016 in some respects (and scarier in others). What to buy now or wait for or hope for in the future depends upon the person and whether the crystal ball is half clear or half cloudy (if I mix metaphors).

 

[Grabthar]

People report a fairly big difference between HW 2/2.5 and HW 3. It has been stated more than a few times that HW 3 can do FSD and will do it capably. HW 4 can do FSD and will do it even better. I don't remember the exact comparisons but what I read said HW 3 will be 10x safer than human driver; HW 4 will be 100x safer. Those aren't the exact numbers but hopefully you get what I'm saying - HW 3 will be just fine for FSD and will do; HW 4 will do exactly the same thing but be able to be even better.

 

[Joey D]

It stands to reason that HW4 is technically more capable than HW3. What nobody knows (despite what thay may claim or what you may believe you have "heard")...is
1) Exactly in what way is it more capable
2) Is that "extra" capability worth the added cost of buying a new vehicle with HW4 vs. getting another vehicle with HW3?

Given the unknowns around HW4, I stand by my original advice: If you are planning to keep the car for 5+ years, I would get one with HW4. If 3 years or less, I would probably save the money and get HW3. If between 3-5 years....crap-shoot.

 

[houstonian]

As I indicated, I am in the process of buying a 2022 or 2023 MS or maybe MX. How important is it that I go for a new or fairly new 2023 to get the HW4?

No one yet knows but a reasonable assumption is HW4 will be more capable than HW3, just as HW5 will be more capable than HW4.

As to the "importance" part - only you can answer that but I can offer the following advice I offer to all who ask me the 'when should I buy a Tesla?' question: wait as long as you comfortably can; the tech will only improve, the cost decline, and who knows, maybe they'll be a blockbuster quarterly promo you can take advantage of.
While macro economics is grossly outside the scope of this thread topic, I will note if the world appears to be about to tip into a deflationary rescission one would expect both demand and prices to drop. One could assume any manufacture would be eager to offer hefty discounts or rich incentivizes to boost falling sales...so again...if you can comfortably wait, wait.

Will I regret it in the future if I get HW3? What really am I losing by just having HW3 instead of HW4?

I envision that I will be on a subscription model and be a user for the FSD.... is the HW3 really as good as HW4... why the change if HW3 was already good?

Can't speak to the technical details but can refer you here: AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Perhaps there's a detailed thread to address the nuances we're aware of between the hardware editions.

Not sure why the sarcastic comment. Seems pretty common on Tesla forums not sure why. If you don't have a useful answer, just pass. Clearly am not an experienced Tesla owner/fan and just trying to figure it all out and learn about Tesla's stuff. If my question seems a bit ridiculous or silly to you, that's fine.

Don't take it personally - we saw 'BMW' in the handle and just assumed the poster was an #$%h@le. (I kid! I kid!)

I think part of it is people come asking a perfectly valid question in a respectful manner, but when you've seen a variation of the same question month after month, quarter after quarter, year after year, some snark can sneak into the response.

I asked because I thought there might be some articles or leaked info somewhere. Being new to Tesla stuff in general, there is no way I could tell without asking before I start to figure it out all myself as to what kind if info might already be there vs impossible to get.

Welcome to TMC!

Check out the other TMC forum I linked above (they're the guys/gals who'll dig into the tech details) and if you're looking for more resources these two sites are top notch:

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info

Tesla News, Latest Software Updates, Tesla Rumors and Tips

The latest Tesla news, software updates, rumors and Tesla tips. Tesla software update release notes and so much more.

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[kpanda17]

As a tech person, if you can get the latest hardware and ok with waiting for 100% compatibility, then get HW4
HW4 will enable the most advanced functionality vs HW3 for a longer period of time
Be don’t wait too long, HW5 is coming…

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Welcome! I wouldn’t make my decision based on FSD alone (or at all). FSD is likely to run just as badly on HW4 as it did on HW3.

 

[BitJam]

I guess another way of making a prediction, how big of a difference was there between HW2 vs HW3? Are they both able to do FSD?

HW4 has higher resolution cameras and the FSD computer is about twice as fast. Elon claims HW3 will be able to drive autonomously better than humans. Unfortunately, his FSD predictions have usually been way off. A few years ago I predicted we might not get real FSD until HW5.

IMO it would be worth it to wait just to get the higher resolution cameras. The 1280×960 resolution of the HW3 cameras seems lame for such a high tech car. The HD radar in HW4 should also be a welcome addition which might save your bacon in low visibility conditions.

How long you intend to keep the car will be a big factor. If it's two years or less then getting HW4 is not a big deal but if it's five years or more then definitely wait for HW4. it may take a coup[e of years for Tesla to make full use of the new hardware.

 

[zoomer0056]

why the change if HW3 was already good

Things get old, new tech comes around, things generally get better as time marches on.

 

[fasteddie7]

I can tell you having driven both HW3 and HW4 that not only is the image clarity better for everyday driving, HW4 doesn’t seem to ever get the camera blocked message when driving on dark roads or in the rain like HW3 does just about every time.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

I envision that I will be on a subscription model and be a user for the FSD.... is the HW3 really as good as HW4... why the change if HW3 was already good?

If you are buying used, the smart play is to hold out for one with a full FSD software license because FSD only add a couple grand to the used values. That's less than a year for break even compared to the $200/mth subscription. And if they ever get FSD working above Level 2, then it's likely Tesla will jack up the monthly subscription.

 

[DayTrippin]

I think it really comes down to is how soon Tesla will take advantage of the capabilities of HW4 and whether will they actually move the needle much. As I've mentioned in other threads, the loss of USS that accompanied HW4 was a bad idea.

I drove a car with the latest FSDb running HW3. It did a pretty good job navigating in town. How much will HW4 actually be, who knows? Maybe a little, maybe a lot. I found the HW3 car was good enough I wouldn't worry about HW4 that much except in how it might impact corner cases. Like bad weather, if they actually do something useful with the radar. I also wouldn't buy FSD outright at it current capabilities. I might rent it from time to time but nothing currently depreciates faster in the Tesla lineup than FSD.

It also pissed me off terribly when Tesla removed the radar functionality from my car and went full TV. We were all told radar bad, TV better. Now radar is back but maybe not integrated yet. Before radar was just more noise as far as Elon was concerned. So at this point, I buy a Tesla based on what is working at the time, not some future promise by the FSD Snake Oil Salesman. A lot of the time Elon is totally full of you know what. I've been burnt enough times already that until I can see something working as promised, then I'll buy in.

A great example of the tricks they are playing is currently offering free FSD for 3 months as part of the referral program. WTF? FSD is so gimped on the HW4 cars you aren't getting much more than AP anyway. What a scam! So give me 3 months if you want, but let me choose when I want them. For example, when HW4 is sorted out and not worse than HW3... Another brilliant marketing move by Tesla. Which brings us back to the question, when, if ever, will HW4 be better than HW3 and full FSD functionality restored?

 

[CTruck_BMW]

If you are buying used, the smart play is to hold out for one with a full FSD software license because FSD only add a couple grand to the used values. That's less than a year for break even compared to the $200/mth subscription. And if they ever get FSD working above Level 2, then it's likely Tesla will jack up the monthly subscription.

what do u think a 2022 MS Plaid with 10K miles and Full FSD worth with white interior?

 

[DayTrippin]

I'd say 95-100k is probably a reasonable price. I don't think car color or interior color moves the needle much on pricing for a used one.

 

[CTruck_BMW]

what do u think a 2022 MS Plaid with 10K miles and Full FSD worth with white interior?

I'd say 95-100k is probably a reasonable price. I don't think car color or interior color moves the needle much on pricing for a used one.

I am for sure a newbie here, but I kinda have to disagree here unless u think am wrong. See below for data-points from carsandbids (all for refresh MS Plaid):
6/23: 2022 MS Plaid sold for 75K --> 18K miles
3/23: 2021 MS Plaid sold for 80K --> 17K miles
3/23: 2021 MS Plaid sold for 88K --> 8K miles with FSD
2/23: 2021 MS Plaid bid to 88K --> 15K miles with FSD

 

[ks1972]

what do u think a 2022 MS Plaid with 10K miles and Full FSD worth with white interior?

Probably 76-84K