Ludalicious
Active Member
Well you are the life of the party!
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Elon Confirms Those Who Purchased FSD get Computer Upgrade Free
- Thread starter scottman71
- Start date
Well you are the life of the party!
The real question I have is whether or not Tesla will be able to move from Level-3 autonomy to Level-4 with their FSD upgrade. I suspect it won't happen right away, and perhaps not at all unless additional redudancy systems (software, hardware, and sensors) have been implemented.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Here's a couple of considerations:
- The longer tesla delays retrofitting the new hardware to FSD purchasers, the more profitable the FSD sale becomes.... This is because the income is fixed and already corrected, while the cost of manufacturing the new HW3.0 only drops over time. The current cost to produce the HW3.0 is at the highest right now and will steadily decrease over the coming months. It likely won't plateau before HW4.
- Once the first non-EAP FSD features are available to us, won't having any FSD purchasers use the functionality with AP2.x become a liability for Tesla? If FSD HW is supposed to be required, 100x faster and therefore safer, even with beta labeling, isn't it irresponsible of Tesla to let any FSD purchaser use the old HW? Even if you don't agree with legal liability, it is really bad press liability!
On your first point, Tesla's profitability has been largely influenced by the spread of its capabilities through word-of-mouth by its owners. While getting customers to invest in its products and technology early through "pre-ordering" can help offset the costs of R&D it could hardly be considered a mechanism of profitability. My sense is that Tesla is pouring far more into the R&D of self-driving and FSD than is offset by the investment in FSD pre-orders. Tesla probably wants as many of these out on the road as possible, since they benefit greatly from both their owner-influencers, but also from the data-collection itself which is being used to improve its self-driving neural net. Some of the most difficult challenges Tesla faces today is with getting the car to drive properly in "corner cases" and here one can say that nearly every car counts when building their data models.
On your second point, Tesla has managed to achieve level 3 autonomy with AP2.x which states that the driver is responsible, but there is a long way between level 3 and level 4. As long as Tesla is still level 3, the liability will remain with its drivers and not with Tesla. It remains to be seen whether or not Tesla will actually achieve level 4 autonomy with FSD in AP3 hardware - I suspect not right away, and perhaps not at all. Even if Tesla manages to nail "Full Self Driving" technically, they still have plenty of challenges ahead to get this approved at the State and Federal levels. This is probably years off both technologically, and from the regulatory perspective.
The challenges Elon has faced in many of his ventures has always been considerable, and he often admits after the fact that it has been much harder than he initially thought. I don't get the sense that if Tesla is genuinely ready to release FSD that they'd somehow benefit from withholding that technology from their faithful customer base.
Time will tell.
M109Rider
Active Member
You may lack understanding around who he is, and what drives his decisions and sometimes overly optimistic goals.
They aren’t lies.
For folks that lack this understanding, it’s too bad you didn’t opt for a typical, predictable, same old, legacy dealer. Their technology is old and mostly non cutting edge. (I’m exaggerating a little here
No significant pioneering in the industry going on there. Just tweaks to the same old stuff. But.... it’s easy for the CEO’s to say the new easy access buttons, or cutting edge radio WILL meet delivery expectations.
Seems like the legacy cars may have been your best choice, instead of a Tesla.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Whoa, hold your horses!
I wonder if they will be able to go from level 2 to level 3 with the FSD upgrade. It will be a long road, that is the only thing that is certain with the level 2-> level 3 progression. I hope they are successful sooner than I think is likely, because that will be very good for Tesla.
There is no Tesla (in customer hands) running level 3 autonomy at this time. So I would say they have currently “achieved” level 2 with AP2.x. Currently the driver has to monitor the system at all times and be prepared to intervene at any time - this is the definition of level 2.
This certainly makes more sense as definitions go. I spent a little more time researching the descriptions of what these automomous levels require and I stand corrected. Tesla appears to have elements of both level 2 and level 3 driving now, but I think as you've rightly pointed out, they have not yet accomplished level 3 automation.
To me, the marketing term "full self driving" seems to describe a car that can reach level 4 autonomous driving, but the reality is different. Makes me wonder what Tesla will call level 4 automation when it finally arrives, seems like a moving target -- anyone want to venture to guess?
I suspect you are an unknown liar but that’s just a guess since you are unknown. At least Elon is known.
Most CEOs I have met are forward thinking and hopeful when it comes to representing their own companies. There is sometimes a fine line here between the reality, future projections and fantasy. We have had CEOs that eventually moved from the wishful thinking category to full-fledged liars (Theranos comes to mind), but I would not place Elon anywhere near that category.
I have walked away from companies when I felt their CEO was over the top, and I only have respect for what Elon has accomplished with Tesla. How many CEO's do you know would consider it a success if another company did a better job than he was able to achieve alone? He is on a real mission to change the world for the better even if he personally loses the fight.
I've found Elon to be brutally honest and has pitted every ounce of his physicality and soul (as well others around him) into making his vision a reality. I wish there were more like him.
Don't forget, we're all still human at the end of the day.
Go and stuff it calling me a liar. I own a Tesla Model 3 Performance and love it, but Tesla has it's issues and Elon promises all kinds of things and doesn't deliver or at best over exaggerates. FSD as purchased for $3000+tax has had zero features delivered to date, none, zip, nada... only a redefinition of what FSD is so they can say they are delivering something when they sell it today. Heck, the only thing Elon recently said previous FSD purchasers would get is EAP, and that never happened either.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This is exactly the kind of stupid I said we'd get though....
A few people: Well it's really unclear if everyone with gets the HW3 upgrade....
Everyone else: Here's like 10 times Elon explicitly said everyone with FSD gets it, repeatedly, for months...
A few people: But you're just citing a bunch of little things that only when taken together really say that, and maybe they're changing OTHER things with HW3 that you won't get.... IF ONLY HE WAS CLEAR ABOUT IT....
Elon like 2 days ago: SUPER CLEAR HERE EVERYONE WHO BUYS FSD GETS HW3 FREE AND THERE'S NO CHANGES AT ALL BESIDES THE COMPUTER SWAP EVERYONE WITH FSD GETS.
A few people: Ah, how can we possibly BELIEVE that?
Elon could personally come to these couple folks houses, personally install HW3 in their cars for free, and they'd be on here the next day insisting he probably broke in after they were asleep and took it back and how can they BE SURE they still actually got it?
A few people: Well it's really unclear if everyone with gets the HW3 upgrade....
Everyone else: Here's like 10 times Elon explicitly said everyone with FSD gets it, repeatedly, for months...
A few people: But you're just citing a bunch of little things that only when taken together really say that, and maybe they're changing OTHER things with HW3 that you won't get.... IF ONLY HE WAS CLEAR ABOUT IT....
Elon like 2 days ago: SUPER CLEAR HERE EVERYONE WHO BUYS FSD GETS HW3 FREE AND THERE'S NO CHANGES AT ALL BESIDES THE COMPUTER SWAP EVERYONE WITH FSD GETS.
A few people: Ah, how can we possibly BELIEVE that?
Elon could personally come to these couple folks houses, personally install HW3 in their cars for free, and they'd be on here the next day insisting he probably broke in after they were asleep and took it back and how can they BE SURE they still actually got it?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure, it is basically true that none of the FSD features have been delivered, but I'm not sure why you are upset by it so much. I think it was pretty clear last year that it was going to be at least a year before anything meaningful was delivered (I think Elon was saying 6 months or so, with plenty of caveats). So are you surprised? I feel like there wasn't really any lying in this case. Just optimistic timelines from Tesla, which most reasonable people agreed at the time would be delayed. The reason people put up the money was to lock in the price, as far as I can tell. I chose not to buy it because I figured it would be years before it would be useful AND something I would be comfortable using. This was a very common assessment. I'm sorry if you were out of the "Tesla knowledge loop" (or whatever you want to call it) at the time of purchase.
The reclassification of features for AP/FSD was weird, but it doesn't really change anything for you, does it?
Also confused by this (what never happened?). The Twitter posts (there are two of them, you have to take them together) mentioned above has Jung Musk clearly stating that FSD purchasers will get HW3 in the future. So that is a "thing Elon recently said previous FSD purchasers would get".
You don't really have anything to worry about - I think it's pretty likely that in about a year you'll have HW3 with some basic level 2 features above and beyond the existing EAP features that you can play with (and monitor with 100% driver attention!), that non-FSD purchasers will not have. You may have longer to wait and need more hardware upgrades to get to true Level 3, but can't see why Tesla wouldn't follow through on that, if it is necessary. There is no timeline, though; it could be years.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, I really don't understand the continued doubt. Tesla has been very, very clear about the HW side of things for FSD purchasers. Feature-wise, they have always been a bit more cagey, for obvious reasons. They've also been deliberately vague about the HW upgrade install timeline, as one would expect.
OTOH,
It is no secret that Tesla's estimates have slipped. Anyone who has researched Tesla would know this to be the case and would take the original estimates with a bit of a grain of salt. When I get forward-looking statements from companies, it almost always comes with a disclaimer stating clearly that the final product and general availability is subject to change. One should set their expectations accordingly when pre-buying future feature and function. Even Elon admits this and has been known to poke fun at himself from time to time as it relates to his delivery times.
I was happy to invest 2K into FSD (I didn't do it when it was 5K) because I felt it was a bargain. Tesla still has a way to go, both in terms of regulatory hurdles, but especially so technologically. They've collected an unprecedented amount of data on the roads from their fleet, and are in a unique position to leverage that data, but they've got to be extremely careful about how they go about this.
I have my doubts in terms of how far we can push the current sensor technology deployed on model 3 even with processing gains of HW v3. It is not my expectation that we will be able to take our hands off the wheel quite yet.
My feeling is that Tesla will need to do a lot of work (perhaps five years worth) to get to level 4 autonomy and maybe another five to get to level 5. If they come in sooner, I will be pleasantly surprised - if they don't, I won't be upset or angry.
Watching Tesla's evolution has been nothing short of incredible, and it is my hope that they continue down this road with positive momentum until they fully realize their goals.
It is no secret that Tesla's estimates have slipped. Anyone who has researched Tesla would know this to be the case and would take the original estimates with a bit of a grain of salt. When I get forward-looking statements from companies, it almost always comes with a disclaimer stating clearly that the final product and general availability is subject to change. One should set their expectations accordingly when pre-buying future feature and function. Even Elon admits this and has been known to poke fun at himself from time to time as it relates to his delivery times.
I was happy to invest 2K into FSD (I didn't do it when it was 5K) because I felt it was a bargain. Tesla still has a way to go, both in terms of regulatory hurdles, but especially so technologically. They've collected an unprecedented amount of data on the roads from their fleet, and are in a unique position to leverage that data, but they've got to be extremely careful about how they go about this.
I have my doubts in terms of how far we can push the current sensor technology deployed on model 3 even with processing gains of HW v3. It is not my expectation that we will be able to take our hands off the wheel quite yet.
My feeling is that Tesla will need to do a lot of work (perhaps five years worth) to get to level 4 autonomy and maybe another five to get to level 5. If they come in sooner, I will be pleasantly surprised - if they don't, I won't be upset or angry.
Watching Tesla's evolution has been nothing short of incredible, and it is my hope that they continue down this road with positive momentum until they fully realize their goals.
This is like having a benefits of a vacine discussion with an anti-vaxer. Why don't we just put a fork in it
Duke-U
Member
Big question, will the upgrade to HW3 include an update from my MCU1 to an MCU2???
What about having the MCU upgraded, is that possible at all?
What about having the MCU upgraded, is that possible at all?
I wonder how many Oct 2016 leased cars were configured with FSD, and how that will play out at the end of this year if retrofits aren't rolling out soon.
He said "3 months, maybe, 6 months definitely" No caveats unless you define "definitely" differently than I do. I bought FSD in December 2017 because I thought even with Elon-time they HAVE to be getting close to the first feature right? And here we are over two years from that infamous statement with nothing yet.
He said "3 months, maybe, 6 months definitely" No caveats unless you define "definitely" differently than I do. I bought FSD in December 2017 because I thought even with Elon-time they HAVE to be getting close to the first feature right? And here we are over two years from that infamous statement with nothing yet.
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