JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Older people are working longer A Third Of Seniors Seek To Work Well Past Retirement Age, Or Won’t Retire At All, Poll Finds
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Elon Musk
- Thread starter graham
- Start date
- Status
So take 1/3 of 60-80 and put it in workforce. That keeps it at 4:1 in the 20 year near term.
The article is paywalked and I can't copy, but check out the Tangent section. It gives stats on the aging workforce and increasing life expectancy.
For real?
sustainable energy required for one person is small. The amount of energy required for an apparently endlessly growing population is... endlessly growing and ... not sustainable. You can make efficiency improvements as Tesla wants to do, but at some point the size of a population makes life unsustainable, probably starting with energy requirements, but also food, extraction needs, pollution.
Any other view is futurist shangri-la fantasy.
As to Mars being for extinction events.... humanity needs to do a heck of a lot better on this orb to prove its value.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
But considering the trend in automation of both the production of goods and the delivery of services, this mix is not that terrifying.
Depends where you think the pinch point is. Will healthcare be able to scale with an increasing older population and a lower ratio of workers to retirees?
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Healthcare is somewhat of an outlier in regards to economics. One aspect is that the system is burdened by end of life costs. This figure should include more than just the last 12 months of life. As a person reaches the last half decade of life, hospital visits and medical procedures become more intensive and costly.
As medical technology continues to improve, this 5 year period will occur at a later age. The future may have far more retired people, but are also likely to be healthier for a longer period of time. They will continue to consume goods and services as long as their finances hold out.
Healthcare is one of the last bastions of person to person services. It is ripe for more automation.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
For a different perspective on Elon's early years this channel has a series of interviews with his father. Not surprisingly paints a somewhat different picture than Elon. This one seems to be focused on responding to a local article.
Well, he's trying to. I guess his bank account expressed its displeasure with the deal especially after looking at the stock market. There must be other worthwhile endeavors he can pursue other than wasting time, getting himself entangled in politics and social media.
Bikeman
Member
Looks like Twitter is not dropping Elon Musk.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
The problem with stepping in stuff is that it gets all over your shoes and takes forever to get it off and even longer for the smell to dissipate.
So he's incinerated a large part of his fortune and reputation to engage with a meaningless social media company in a costly and prolonged legal battle to buy it for a meme price.
Genius! I was wrong to be skeptical. This must have been his plan all along.
Genius! I was wrong to be skeptical. This must have been his plan all along.
Using this as an argument to continue growing the population is like arguing you need a new car because the paint got scratched. The ratio of retirees to working population is an economic problem. It's real, but quite survivable. Running out of resources is not survivable.
Japan hit the threshold where there were too many retirees in the early 90s. They suffered about 25 years of economic doldrums because of it, but nothing terrible happened. They are coming out of it now as the population is stabilizing to a more economically stable balance.
Many developed countries can prevent the doldrums completely if they allow immigration from less well off countries. Despite the political issues with that, many European and North American countries have done that and the demographic curve for the United States is fairly healthy with only a narrowing in the last few years (looks like it started in 2017).
Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia
The UK is pretty healthy
Demography of the United Kingdom - Wikipedia
Germany is facing a bit of an economic hiccup soon
Demographics of Germany - Wikipedia
Russia is worse than Germany
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russian_population_(demographic)_pyramid_(structure)_on_January,_1st,_2022.png
China is facing a problem possibly worse than Russia
Demographics of China - Wikipedia
If a country pushes through the economic problem created by a demographic bulge retiring, it comes out the other side and does fine. It's a temporary problem that only lasts for a generation or less. And there are many ways to mitigate it.
Tesla stock rebounded big after the announcement. It was a stupid move on his part and while it looks like there will be some court hoo haw about it, I hope it really is over.
Yes, (at the limit) infinite population with finite resources is unsustainable.
My post was an attempt to differentiate population growth (which was claimed to be Elon's concern) from population age ratios (which I think is Elon's concern).
The US data you posted sure looks like a 2 million+ wave is moving on in age whereas is used to be a taper, meanwhile birth rate is decreasing (constant but aging population).
And yes, if the country adjusts to support the new ratio, things will work out (assuming there is enough resource generation to support that ratio).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Elon says there is no reason to read between the lines when he speaks, just reads the lines. He constantly talks about population collapse and how the earth could hold billions more people:
"Earth could sustain many times its current human population and the ecosystem would be fine. We definitely don’t have “too many people"" Also: "If there aren’t enough people for Earth, then there definitely won’t be enough for Mars."
That's not just concern about age demographics. It's also not remotely rational when considering the effects of the current population on the environment and no practical solutions in place to mitigate them in the near term. More people will accelerate the degradation of our environment, especially when simultaneously improving their living standards, something a person who claims to care about humanity should also care about. Since we know that improved living conditions lead to lower birth rates one must wonder how that fits into his vision. His "analysis" doesn't seem to have gone beyond the "more bodies = good" level.
+100. absolutely. he needs to stick with engineering.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
It seems Elon's power is growing and is outpacing his sense. There is something about absolute power corrupting absolutely. It would appear as though there is a continuum and you need not get to absolute power before you start loosing your ship.
- Status
Similar threads
