So I finally got 6.1 yesterday afternoon and thought I would try the trip prediction feature of the energy display. Curious to know what is taken into account here, as I ended up doing "worse" than what was predicted. I started out with a fully pre-heated car and drove "gingerly" at or below the speed limit the whole way. The temperature was 10 F with no wind and the roads were clear and dry. I'm wondering if it's just an extrapolation of the normal "Rated" range estimate?
I don't think it takes into account weather at all, except that it does look at
current HVAC, which is of course weather related. If the HVAC is off in a heated garage, the initial estimation will assume that to be the case throughout the entire trip. It does factor in elevation changes well. Like the cruise control system, it's blind to regeneration being disabled (will graph an increase in energy for going down a big hill even with no regen). Here's an example of a short-trip where the actual consumption was 60% over the prediction. (Who knows how they round off, so internally the difference may have been as small as 40%).
-15C/+5F.
Hakka R2 which had been inflated earlier in the day to 48.5 psi after five hours in a garage heated to +5C/41F (admittedly perhaps slightly under the spec of 45 psi at -15C).
Car charging for three hours outdoors, including at least 1/2 hour of preheating to 25C/77F.
Regeneration limited to about 40kW.
Cruise control set to the posted limit of 100 km/h. (Over 90% of the trip was highway).
With Charging Complete to 90% and the car drawing just enough (24A at 205V) to run the heat, the estimator predicted I'd use 6% for the 17 km.
Turning the heat off, canceling the trip and resubmitting it dropped the predicted consumption to 5%. In fact, no heat was used since it was a trip of less than 15 minutes.
The Green Race site (which doesn't let you enter temperature) estimated usage of only 4% for the trip. Part of the difference may be that it defaults to a range of 437 km for the S, whereas my rated range is 415-423 km in range mode nowadays after 47,000 km.
EDIT: The system does take into account instances where regen is disabled at the start of a trip. It is a bit over optimistic about when regen will be restored in cold weather, though.