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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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That's not what I was taught and it doesn't make sense.
It clearly makes sense for Germans, who have half the traffic death rate per capita, per vehicle and per vehicle mile versus Americans. Now that may be because their drivers have to make only half as many highway merges, but their system works for them. They actually train their drivers and they charge them a hefty fee for getting a license.

How shocked would you be if you found out someone was driving without a license? I'd shrug and accept it as another instance of American insanity.

In contrast, here's the funny James May story about a German considering someone driving without a license.

 
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Reactions: APotatoGod
Haven't seen a new batch go out yet today, still looks like yesterday's numbers. So I haven't checked yet.

Any ideas on the algorithm that is used to determine when a car gets the update? I realize a car can only request once a day. But it seems like they have a pool of updates, and some how those get doled out...

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Nope. I mean, who actually expected to go from zero to beta testers to every FSD owner “over the weekend”? Only those that worship Elon as their demigod?
Nice straw man. The answer, of course, is that nobody expected it to go to "every FSD owner". After many years of Elon's prevarications about when FSD or s specific version thereof would be available, even touting rollouts that, as far as anyone could never, literally never occurred (like last November), perhaps I can be excused for being skeptical.

Still, it seems we are getting a real rollout, even if the pace isn't quite what we'd hope it would be. But I live in hope, having paid for FSD back when Obama was president.
 
Yes, but none of them are promises. He’s optimistic with timelines no doubt..but he doesn’t say “you’ll definitely have it by this date.”
Well, except that he does actually say that. I realize that detailed parsing Elon's pronouncements is a sport here, but still, when he says things like:

"We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that."

...that qualifies as "you'll definitely have it by this date (i.e. the end of the year)", doesn't it?
 
Highways need work. You no longer have the option to “exit passing lane” under AP settings. All you have is chill, avg, and assertive. It really doesn’t want to move out of the pawing lane no matter what you have it set to. Still
Playing with it, but it should move over more frequently when traffic is behind you. The last second merging onto highways sucks. I did have it take a merge this morning that it was never able to complete, I have one more to try that it would never complete in the past. Still needs a little polish, I’d say it’s 85% “there”.
 
Was this with your Y or 3? I believe the latter does not have Ultrasonic Sensors, so if it did get 11.3.2, do you see any specific release notes about Tesla Vision Park Assist? I'm guessing it was for your Y as you didn't mention it in your report, but please share at least a photo when your 3 gets 11.x!
My report was from my model year 2022 Y which does have USS. My USS-free model year 2023 3 has not yet been blessed. I did read over the release note this morning, prompted by your comment. While I thought the section below the second picture on what had actually changed was unusually informative, I did not spot anything about parking at all. The one Vision comment I noticed was a holdover--the one that says following range is restricted to 2 to 7 and max FSDb speed to 85 because of Vision. I don't think they customize the release notes base on the car.
 
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Reactions: zoomer0056
I don't think they customize the release notes base on the car.

They do indeed filter release notes only to relevant vehicles. Otherwise you'd be getting a bunch of notes about China-specific or EU-specific features, or features unrelated to your vehicle's hardware.

NotATeslaApp shows that the Park Assist note will only display to cars that get 2022.45.11 that are in the US, have HW3, and don't have USS: FSD Beta 11.3.2 (2022.45.11) Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates
 
Unfortunately it doesn't look like they're continuing to ramp the rollout the way they did the last two days - based on TeslaFi data (which admittedly is a limited sample of the vehicle pool), it doesn't look like any additional vehicles have gotten the push to download today - still hanging at around 130-140 cars pending download/install, which is where it was last night.
 
Unfortunately it doesn't look like they're continuing to ramp the rollout the way they did the last two days - based on TeslaFi data (which admittedly is a limited sample of the vehicle pool), it doesn't look like any additional vehicles have gotten the push to download today - still hanging at around 130-140 cars pending download/install, which is where it was last night.
Maybe (that's a speculation alert) they're getting feedback and will come out with a bug fix version.
 
I have always wondered if there is some sort of metric with staged rollouts that they are trying to hit regarding AP/FSD miles driven cumulatively with all testers before they continue rollouts. Sort of a baseline metric for maybe disengagements/interventions or true safety issues like crashes (though those are very infrequent so the number of miles driven needs to likely be in the hundreds of thousands/millions) before they deem it safe for a larger and larger audience.
 
Nice straw man. The answer, of course, is that nobody expected it to go to "every FSD owner". After many years of Elon's prevarications about when FSD or s specific version thereof would be available, even touting rollouts that, as far as anyone could never, literally never occurred (like last November), perhaps I can be excused for being skeptical.

Still, it seems we are getting a real rollout, even if the pace isn't quite what we'd hope it would be. But I live in hope, having paid for FSD back when Obama was president.
Yep, the Great Charlatan…. Also, no new releases in the past 24 hours. Next you’ll hear, “we found a bug, so next release coming soon…”. Even though v11 has been in testing for six months and still is on a very old 2022 firmware branch!
 
I have always wondered if there is some sort of metric with staged rollouts that they are trying to hit regarding AP/FSD miles driven cumulatively with all testers before they continue rollouts. Sort of a baseline metric for maybe disengagements/interventions or true safety issues like crashes (though those are very infrequent so the number of miles driven needs to likely be in the hundreds of thousands/millions) before they deem it safe for a larger and larger audience.
Using history as a guide, the Charlatan metric seems to be - release to all of his shills first, wait for their “unbiased” input, then decide next steps.
 
Using history as a guide, the Charlatan metric seems to be - release to all of his shills first, wait for their “unbiased” input, then decide next steps.
Not sure why I got it, then ... I had my first drive on it yesterday, out to see my PDR guy and back again. As with the previous version(s), it tried to kill me (or other people) several times. Maybe I should make some youtube videos ... ;)