FSD 11.4.7.3 The latest disaster

[Dracaris]

True, but only because Musk will have somebody on Mars by 2026

Elon Musk is 'highly confident' SpaceX will land humans on Mars by 2026

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said he is "highly confident" that the company will land humans on Mars in "about six years from now."

www.cnbc.com

I'm totally in favor of him landing himself on Mars. As soon as possible. Return trip neither required nor necessary. A one-way rocket would be within spec.

 

[maverick3n1]

If I had to take a guess, I'd say some of those oddities you are dealing with (Primarily things like wide turns) has to do with G-Force limitations set on FSD. I learned while going up a mountain as well as down, that FSD couldn't handle it even going below the speed limit. While normal city driving, laws set speed limits far too low in my personal opinion, Mountain roads going up and down seem to set the limits far too high. If you see a van attempting to go the speed limit while taking the turns with no wind, you can visibly see them shift the opposite direction of the turn dramatically. If you drove a sports car, you could exceed the limits, but if you were in an SUV or Van and not used to those roads, you were driving 20% below the speed limit. The Tesla set at 40mph on a 45mph road going up the mountain side would hit a turn, start drifting outside of the lane and then yell at the driver to take emergency control as it could not maintain.

I'm guessing the same thing is happening for those turns. A wide turn allows for less G-Force while still going whatever higher speed you are making the turn at vs the vehicle reducing it's speed to like 5mph to make the turn without exceeding the threshold. It seems like they want to meet with the average person's expectations of how fast you make a turn, so you don't truly feel like it's driving like a grandma, while maintaining these G-Force limits, so that was their work around. I could be wrong, but just a hunch.

 

[rlsd]

If I had to take a guess, I'd say some of those oddities you are dealing with (Primarily things like wide turns) has to do with G-Force limitations set on FSD. I learned while going up a mountain as well as down, that FSD couldn't handle it even going below the speed limit. While normal city driving, laws set speed limits far too low in my personal opinion, Mountain roads going up and down seem to set the limits far too high. If you see a van attempting to go the speed limit while taking the turns with no wind, you can visibly see them shift the opposite direction of the turn dramatically. If you drove a sports car, you could exceed the limits, but if you were in an SUV or Van and not used to those roads, you were driving 20% below the speed limit. The Tesla set at 40mph on a 45mph road going up the mountain side would hit a turn, start drifting outside of the lane and then yell at the driver to take emergency control as it could not maintain.

I'm guessing the same thing is happening for those turns. A wide turn allows for less G-Force while still going whatever higher speed you are making the turn at vs the vehicle reducing it's speed to like 5mph to make the turn without exceeding the threshold. It seems like they want to meet with the average person's expectations of how fast you make a turn, so you don't truly feel like it's driving like a grandma, while maintaining these G-Force limits, so that was their work around. I could be wrong, but just a hunch.

The car swings to the high traffic lane on the left/right lane often when making left/right turn. It happened 2 times for me today.
I think there are some related things:

1. The car does not slow down gradually to make turns. This is a problem with Tesla. I am sure Tesla engineers know how to calculate centrifugal force but maybe they apply a wrong algorithm or have no experience with driving or their product manager don't pay attention to it.
2. The designated turn lanes are too short. This is a problem with the local road design and NTHSA. In my city, there are several designated turn lanes about only 2 car length on 50 mph streets. Human drivers change to the shoulder or bike lane about 5 car length or more far ahead then slow down before making turn. FSD strictly adheres to the lane marker and makes late turn.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sandiego/comments/ct1vny

 

[maverick3n1]

The car swings to the high traffic lane on the left/right lane often when making left/right turn. It happened 2 times for me today.
I think there are some related things:

1. The car does not slow down gradually to make turns. This is a problem with Tesla. I am sure Tesla engineers know how to calculate centrifugal force but maybe they apply a wrong algorithm or have no experience with driving or their product manager don't pay attention to it.
2. The designated turn lanes are too short. This is a problem with the local road design and NTHSA. In my city, there are several designated turn lanes about only 2 car length on 50 mph streets. Human drivers change to the shoulder or bike lane about 5 car length or more far ahead then slow down before making turn. FSD strictly adheres to the lane marker and makes late turn.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sandiego/comments/ct1vny

That would once again, reinforce my concept of the G-Force limitation. Unless emergency, slamming on the brakes is the last option. Making an upcoming turn without enough distance, rather than slamming on the brakes, for the least G-Force experience, requires a wider arc turn. Is it smart or safe, no. But I believe they are trying to mix safe with comfortable and failing. Focus on safe first, even if it slows to grandma speeds, which we all know will piss off people as well, but at least it's safe. Then as they work out the kinks, adapt and increase speeds for these events. An unhappy customer because the car slowed to 5mph to make a right turn the client would typically make at 15mph is better than a happy customer because the car arcs out to make the turn at 20mph until the happy customer gets hit by a car because it arced too much and is in the hospital.

Maybe increase the g-force limits a bit. Of nearly every vehicle I have driven, there isn't much that can hug a corner like a Tesla. Between the wider ZR rated tires and the added weight of the batteries, you aren't likely to roll it. Add all wheel drive and you aren't likely to roll it. We didn't buy a Tesla for it to drive like a grandma. Grandma's don't by Teslas because they are too technological. We bought is because we like the performance, we like the capabilities.. so give us some advantages in that era. If I can take a turn at nearly 1g with driving the car, why should autopilot refuse any turn that gives more than 0.1 increase in G-Force? Step up your game! The car will take it.

 

[SidetrackedSue]

But I believe they are trying to mix safe with comfortable and failing. Focus on safe first, even if it slows to grandma speeds, which we all know will piss off people as well, but at least it's safe.

This Grandma had to unlearn almost 5 decades of driving in snow because creeping through a turn doesn't engage the front motor, I need to gun it, have the car determine that isn't safe, and then the computer engages the All Wheel Drive for me. "Drive it like you stole it" is actually the safest way to drive this car in certain conditions. That's my bad, I've never owned an AWD vehicle but had driven in a Subaru Outback in extreme snow and was impressed. So I was excited about buying an AWD and assumed it was engaged at all times, or that I could manually engage it when the driving conditions warranted. Once again Tesla marketing and design makes an ASS oUt of Me. I do note the Subaru Solterra offers me true AWD (with the corresponding range hit) so my expectations weren't technically impossible, just not Tesla possible.

Grandma's don't by Teslas because they are too technological.

Careful there Sonny. This Grandma used to assemble Apple IIs for customers at the first micro-computer store in my city.

(And this Grandma is pissed that the rear seat design and seatbelt receivers being flush with seat means she cannot transport all 3 grandkids at the same time but admits she's better off with her MY since when she looked to upgrade to an MX to have room for all three she learned the headrests don't come off, the workaround that allows her to use her front-facing car seat of choice. At least she didn't spend more for less.)

 

[JB47394]

or that I could manually engage it when the driving conditions warranted.

And with a software-defined car, you might someday have that. If Elon didn't restrict himself to southern Latitudes, perhaps he'd appreciate its value. The moment Elon found himself sliding in snow, you can believe that he'd have his engineers prioritizing that work.

 

[HitchHiker71]

? It did. Tesla hired Jim Keller to design its first in-car processor, and ever since then (all the way up through the current HW4) Tesla has been running their own chip design in the car.

Last time I checked - Tesla does not manufacture it's own FSD chips:

Samsung to make Tesla’s fifth-generation HW 5.0 auto chip - KED Global

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest memory chipmaker, will make Tesla Inc.’s next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) chips to be used in t

www.kedglobal.com

They use or have used ARM, TSMC, and Samsung (also for the upcoming FSD HW 5..0) for their chip manufacturing. Tesla does design and manufacture some of it's own semiconductor chips used in other areas of the vehicle - but not the FSD/HW chips themselves - which is what we're talking about here.

 

[mtndrew1]

Last time I checked - Tesla does not manufacture it's own FSD chips:

Samsung to make Tesla’s fifth-generation HW 5.0 auto chip - KED Global

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest memory chipmaker, will make Tesla Inc.’s next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) chips to be used in t

www.kedglobal.com

They use or have used ARM, TSMC, and Samsung (also for the upcoming FSD HW 5..0) for their chip manufacturing. Tesla does design and manufacture some of it's own semiconductor chips used in other areas of the vehicle - but not the FSD/HW chips themselves - which is what we're talking about here.

The HW3 and HW4 chips are Tesla designs, manufactured by TSMC or Samsung. They’re analogous to Apple silicon; neither of these companies have their own fabs.

 

[DrChaos]

Back on topic:

11.4.7.3​

It had 3 hard fails for me on a drive last night. One had it almost running a red left-turn light---it didn't think far forward enough to see it already turning yellow, it thought it could gun it and make it. Another had a fail on a well-trafficked intersection it used to do acceptably at (and previously failed at too), stopped and unable to figure out a turn on a protected left green-arrow when there were opposing cars.

I think city streets driving is worse than previous versions, but maybe highway is better. I think the FSD-beta on freeways is good enough to be merged to the mainstream AP algorithm. It is more natural.

Once again a problem of tuning a complex machine learning model---very typical for performance to improve on one subset while degrading on another when you make some change.

 

[EvilNuff]

...And Elon's public decompensating and mandating in-office 5 days a week, and declining stock price, are not at all helpful to attract and retain these kinds of 1% employees who are stunningly talented in a hot field and stunningly recruited by employers who are nicer and pay much more.

Older comment but this is an incredibly under appreciated point. The #1 question I am asked when hiring Software Engineers is if the position is full time remote or not. They don't care about hybrid they want remote. Properly managed they are more effective remote as well. Requiring in office literally chops out the top best 50% of candidates. It is absolutely insane for no actual benefit. (Again talking Software Engineers here.)

 

[DrChaos]

Older comment but this is an incredibly under appreciated point. The #1 question I am asked when hiring Software Engineers is if the position is full time remote or not. They don't care about hybrid they want remote. Properly managed they are more effective remote as well. Requiring in office literally chops out the top best 50% of candidates. It is absolutely insane for no actual benefit. (Again talking Software Engineers here.)

Right, and given the hours that Tesla demands, they have to live physically in the most preposterously expensive part of the world outside Monaco (Palo Alto) and without the benefits of such a location.

It may be intentional---they will only get very young people, and youth often has bad judgement and limited cultural experience though great enthusiasm.

OpenAI might go public with the most insane IPO of all time---the chance for a bit of equity and a sane work environment outweighs anything Tesla could offer. No surprise Karpathy went back---he wants to work with the best, as he is.

Historically Tesla was able to hire below market compensation because of the equity and the cool factor. Both of those are now defunct.

My prediction: MobileEye SuperVision: Mobileye SuperVision™ | The Bridge from ADAS to Consumer AVs

will soon be deployed to consumer vehicles and match the FSDbeta operational domain (full spectrum ADAS with vision and a front radar!), and be more reliable and safe. If the upcoming BMW Neue Klasse has this, that will be my next car.

 

[Dewg]

Let's leave stock price out of the conversations. The market trends are mostly governed by fear and emotion. I regularly hear people exclaim that Tesla stock dropped 8% in one day, using that as evidence of some failure they perceive. However, a few days later the stock bounces up 7%, but you don't hear the same person use that large increase as counter evidence - just showing more confirmation bias.

For the record, Tesla stock is up 842% over the last 5 years, and YTD (2023) is up 103%. For comparison, the S&P 500 YTD is up 14%, DOW is up 3%, and NASAQ is up 31%, so Tesla has beat the market by a significant margin.

 

[EatsShoots]

Older comment but this is an incredibly under appreciated point. The #1 question I am asked when hiring Software Engineers is if the position is full time remote or not. They don't care about hybrid they want remote. Properly managed they are more effective remote as well. Requiring in office literally chops out the top best 50% of candidates. It is absolutely insane for no actual benefit. (Again talking Software Engineers here.)

(off topic) I'm in IT and have been 100% remote since covid. It's almost inconceivable for me to work onsite unless I got laid off and needed a job. I would do hybrid, but only for a major pay increase. I had a recruiter reach out a week back for a full onsite position. Didn't respond. Another one for an onsite with the ability for it to eventually be hybrid. Sr BA with 5+ years experience to assist with an Oracle implementation, with a salary range of $36-42/hour. Some of these recruiters are delusional.

 

[Lost Petrol]

...

Heck, ideally there should be a low/medium/high level of personalization aggressiveness somehow - speed, follow distance, lane change, etc. Even better, adjust based upon my real life driving style as it is consistent to my preferences. It could probably make such a profile while the cameras calibrate but with continuous updates.

...

And that's not all. When AVs are mature there will be configuration parameters for long-term and per-trip optimizations, e.g.,

Minimize time to destination; This is the only goal that the current navigation system (as distinct from AP & FSD) recognizes, but I'd like the configurable option to...
Minimize cost of trip; E.g., reduce electricity used, choose cheaper charging locations, avoid tolls
Minimize total cost of ownership; E.g., the above plus reduce tire wear and brake wear, minimize loss of battery capacity, minimize expected cost of accident repairs
Minimize legal violations; E.g., speed limit, rolling stops
Maximize comfort; E.g., steer around potholes, reduce maximum acceleration (including lateral) and jerk (i.e. the derivative of acceleration with respect to time), choose smoother roads

The owner would set a long-term default allocation of priority among these (and other) goals, which could be overridden by the driver on a per-trip or minute-to-minute basis.

 

[jjayforbes]

I just watched a video by a guy (Mike Seuss?) who went to a Tesla “unveiling” of an actual CyberTruck at a Tesla store. I didn’t learn anything new about the ‘truck, but he stated that Tesla intends to use the same AI’s for the robots as FSD (beta - as it is now, always has been and always shall be, amen). If that is the case, every robot will require an operator walking behind it with one hand on its shoulder and the other hand on a kill switch so the poor thing doesn’t keep walking into walls!

 

[HitchHiker71]

I just watched a video by a guy (Mike Seuss?) who went to a Tesla “unveiling” of an actual CyberTruck at a Tesla store. I didn’t learn anything new about the ‘truck, but he stated that Tesla intends to use the same AI’s for the robots as FSD (beta - as it is now, always has been and always shall be, amen). If that is the case, every robot will require an operator walking behind it with one hand on its shoulder and the other hand on a kill switch so the poor thing doesn’t keep walking into walls!

It's actually the reverse. FSD v12 was birthed from the AI based learning software built for Optimus. Tesla then had an epiphany and realized that a video based learning system meant to mimic human movements and decisions for the robots - might actually work better for the FSD systems as well - and from that point forward - FSD v12 was birthed using the same approach for Optimus. Obviously the two systems are disparate since they have very different intents and goals for learning - but the basic AI system that underlies both is essentially the same.

 

[jjayforbes]

…It's actually the reverse. … but the basic AI system that underlies both is essentially the same.

And I think we can all see how that’s working out for them. It looks to me like Tesla is actually falling behind other manufactures who don’t need to hide behind a (beta) tag.

 

[HitchHiker71]

And I think we can all see how that’s working out for them. It looks to me like Tesla is actually falling behind other manufactures who don’t need to hide behind a (beta) tag.

No argument here. It remains to be seen if FSD v12 is really any better than previous iterations. FSD v12 is obviously yet another complete rewrite of the FSD stack - so we're 12 versions in now - and still don't have a production worthy version. Musk says v12 won't have a beta release - I will believe that when I see it. As I've always maintained - until Tesla backs off of their desire to produce a L4/L5 system and actually puts laser focus on producing a production worthy L2/L3 variant - we'll continue these endless beta phases for the next several years at least. There are too many edge cases where a true L4/L5 system just isn't going to happen any time soon - even Musk said as much at one point.

 

[KArnold]

but he stated that Tesla intends to use the same AI’s for the robots as FSD

It would be interesting to see robots with constant dry wipes, being in the wrong aisle before turning, errant turn signals, phantom stops for no reason, and regular interventions every couple hundred feet. I hope they don't have to back up or park themselves.

Maybe they can make them wave when they pass one another. And even fart - they already have that code!

Sure doesn't sound very efficient but I'd love to see that video. Sounds very aspirational.

 

[tesluv108]

My wife just got her first Tesla a model 3. Here is the question, while Tesla is pushing their free trial of the fsd, I really don’t want it. I’m fine with the base version of AP, because she only wants to use on the highway. The first interactions with fsd have been scary and I don’t like it at all. It was worse than a 16 year old driving. We had fsd navigating home in a 35 mph zone and the car knew it had to turn for over a mile. It didn’t even remotely slow down when getting near our street then banked right knowing it had to turn left before I had to intervene. Wtf is this? People paid 15k for this?
Can someone tell me how to use autopilot only, as I feel like to use AP Tesla requires me to click accept on fsd beta as well. I guess I could always go to Tesla and tell them remove the fsd trial?