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FSD purchasers: When might HW3.0 become available?

Mark_T

Active Member
Nov 1, 2017
1,306
1,149
UK
I find it odd that people are not acknowledging that post in the model 3 forum where an owner had their AP upgraded to AP 3.
Either it happened and no one actually bothered to read that thread, or the OP of that thread confused getting their AP upgraded from 2.5 —> 3 to just getting a software update

Which thread?...

The one linked a few posts up did not result in an upgrade, just a couple of cancelled service appointments and a vague promise that turned out to be wrong...
 
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bob_p

Active Member
Apr 5, 2012
3,738
2,947
The HW3 processor appears to be manufactured in China. Tesla was denied an exemption from the increased tariffs - so they'll have to pay extra for each HW3 processor they ship from China to the US.

So, it's likely Tesla will hold off on upgrading AP2.x vehicles until they're ready to deploy software that would actually use the faster hardware and there is a China/US trade deal.

Even if they could upgrade the AP2.x vehicles today - we wouldn't see any difference, since the current software doesn't need the more powerful AP processor.
 

emmz0r

Senior Software Engineer
Jul 12, 2018
1,276
1,111
Norway
The HW3 processor appears to be manufactured in China. Tesla was denied an exemption from the increased tariffs - so they'll have to pay extra for each HW3 processor they ship from China to the US.

So, it's likely Tesla will hold off on upgrading AP2.x vehicles until they're ready to deploy software that would actually use the faster hardware and there is a China/US trade deal.

Even if they could upgrade the AP2.x vehicles today - we wouldn't see any difference, since the current software doesn't need the more powerful AP processor.

Winter 2019 is soon here, when the automatic city driving was promised, so they should really start retrofitting very soon either way. Tick tock.
 
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The HW3 processor appears to be manufactured in China. Tesla was denied an exemption from the increased tariffs - so they'll have to pay extra for each HW3 processor they ship from China to the US.

So, it's likely Tesla will hold off on upgrading AP2.x vehicles until they're ready to deploy software that would actually use the faster hardware and there is a China/US trade deal.

Even if they could upgrade the AP2.x vehicles today - we wouldn't see any difference, since the current software doesn't need the more powerful AP processor.

I know the disclaimer is that the HW3 upgrades will start when the software needs it. Those of us on AP2 hardware can argue that Sentry mode and Dash Cam features don't work for us and the hardware is the limitation. While those are not FSD features, I think it is highly likely the AP2.0 folks will hit the hardware limit before the AP2.5 folks will.
 
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He stated this at the Autonomy day presentation ... The video of that presentation should still be online.

But at the same time, just because the hardware is ready doesn't mean HW4 is ready ... As an AP2 FSD owner, I would be really sadden to have to wait for HW4 ... I think the only question for us: will HW3 be enough for FSD or will we get another update in the future ... I suppose only Elon knows ... :rolleyes:

We know HW3 is being designed to be able to retrofit HW2.0 and HW2.5 vehicles. I don't remember where I saw the pictures, but it looked to have extra plugs depending on what was needed for a given retrofit. It is possible the future HW4 is not intended as an upgrade and will just be in whatever refresh goes on during that time. Similar to how there is no upgrade from HW2.0 to HW2.5. I wouldn't expect HW2.0 FSD owners to get continuous upgrades to HW3, HW4 or HW5. I'm more concerned that HW2.x folks are missing other things for regulatory approval such as driver facing camera, dual radar, etc. Not just the AP computer itself. Nobody knows what the regulations will require beyond what the tech is able to perform.

There comes a point where it may be cheaper for Tesla to offer me an excessive trade in value for my car toward a Model S with all the required hardware. They transfer my FSD purchase to the new vehicle, strip it from my existing vehicle and sell it as used without the promise of being able to go FSD for the next buyer. Either way, I don't think any of this will happen in 2019.
 
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There comes a point where it may be cheaper for Tesla to offer me an excessive trade in value for my car toward a Model S with all the required hardware. They transfer my FSD purchase to the new vehicle, strip it from my existing vehicle and sell it as used without the promise of being able to go FSD for the next buyer. Either way, I don't think any of this will happen in 2019.

I'm keeping my MS until the wheels fall off or the Colorado hail pounds it into oblivion, whichever comes first.

I'm wondering what happens when they realize they can't do FSD on 2.0/2.5, if they don't know already. Like seriously, what is their recourse. I understand in the past they haven't delivered on a lot of things but this is big. Like $3000 to $6000 big! It's going to be an interesting year to say the least.
 

Mark_T

Active Member
Nov 1, 2017
1,306
1,149
UK
I think the 500,000 is bad reporting. There have been only about 500,000 total AP2+ cars sold to date. Last I saw around 30-40% of the cars that could have FSD did have it. I think they meant the potential for 500k retrofits...

This bit in the report seemed clear enough...

In total, Musk estimates that there are around 500,000 cars that are compatible with the new chip, although not all of them will have paid for the package that will allow them to get the upgrade for free.
 

boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” FSD BETA 2nd round
May 1, 2015
3,253
6,096
Gainesville GA
My guess is all the 2.0HW folks go to the bottom of the list since it's going to require more than just a board upgrade. I'm guessing 4th quarter of 2020 for 2.0 owners. Most 2.0 cars will be traded in or lease returned by then. It'll save them a bunch of money.

Just because a HW2.0 car was traded in or sold to a new buyer does NOT relieve Tesla from the liability of retrofitting those cars to HW3.0 IF FSD was pre-purchased. Tesla can't simply wash their hands of the $$ liability.
 
Just because a HW2.0 car was traded in or sold to a new buyer does NOT relieve Tesla from the liability of retrofitting those cars to HW3.0 IF FSD was pre-purchased. Tesla can't simply wash their hands of the $$ liability.

What if the car is returned to Tesla as a trade or lease return - couldn't they just turn off FSD and resell it without that capability? If so, then the new buyer would have to repurchase FSD in order to get the retrofit, right?
 
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boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” FSD BETA 2nd round
May 1, 2015
3,253
6,096
Gainesville GA
What if the car is returned to Tesla as a trade or lease return - couldn't they just turn off FSD and resell it without that capability? If so, then the new buyer would have to repurchase FSD in order to get the retrofit, right?
I don't know if that would be "legal" since it was part of the car as ordered. I guess it could possibly be but it is on the Monroney Sticker as part of the original purchase.....bottom line is IDK....Tesla has been known to do some odd things though.
 

boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” FSD BETA 2nd round
May 1, 2015
3,253
6,096
Gainesville GA
They are able to remove free supercharging from cars and sell it as such, no? This would be a similar thing
I don't believe so. My S85D had has FUSC for life and the buyer still has it as of today. My S100D had FUSC for me as the current owner and did pass along to the current owner.

Difference being my S85D had it listed on the Monroney sticker and the S100D did not.
 
I have no doubt in my mind that if they wanted to, they could remove FSD capability from 2.0/2.5/etc. cars when it's traded in. If it's cheaper for them to sell it without FSD than it is to upgrade it then why wouldn't they remove it?

EDIT: The Monroney sticker argument didn't work for people that bought a $35k M3 and ended up getting their range downgraded.
 

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