FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[powertoold]

Has anyone found any potentially FSD-breaking issues with this beta?

At this point, I can only see them solving everything to average human level within the next 1-2 years at most.

Basically, it looks like Tesla has won the race to a widely deployed FSD system. Just my insight.

 

[MP3Mike]

Please provide some proof.

I don't know why people have to be spoon feed, but here:

Elon Musk@elonmusk·
May 14, 2018

Replying to
@Kasabiii
It certainly needs to be better & we work to improve it every day, but perfect is enemy of good. A system that, on balance, saves lives & reduces injuries should be released.

 

[Silicon Desert]

That is a great video, and the NN in the drone is pretty good!
So in the 2 minutes and 16 seconds, it almost hits a parked car, it flyes past a pedestrian zone (a cautios person would keep speed low there), it takes a early yellow (guess OK) .....

Well that was a cool video and I enjoyed it, but I am not sure which was worse, the Tesla or the drone pilot. If I had flow like that in Vietnam, I wouldn't be here today to talk about it

Oh, and to say I'm just trying to inject some humor. For sure, that drone nav person can fly a drone a thousand times better than me, but I bet he can't fly a jet better

 

[zecar]

Well that was a cool video and I enjoyed it, but I am not sure which was worse, the Tesla or the drone pilot. If I had flow like that in Vietnam, I wouldn't be here today to talk about it

Drone pilot is a microprocessor tracking the car

 

[Silicon Desert]

Drone pilot is a microprocessor tracking the car

yea, I understand that. I have several drones. But thanks for the comment. The controller can still over-ride potential issues if paying attention..

 

[Mardak]

I would like to see such specs for the design of a roundabout that indicates the opposite side is designed to be hidden.

Here's a news article that has some quotes from various traffic engineers: That huge pile of dirt inside Fredericton's newest roundabout — it's there for a reason

"We're just trying to keep the driver paying attention and focusing on what's critical for them to focus on, versus what might be happening somewhere else," said Jon Lewis, a traffic engineer for the City of Fredericton. "Some drivers would say they prefer to see what's happening on the other side of the circle as they enter," he said. "The safety behind it is you don't need to see what's happening at the other side."

So specifically to that bolded quote, in some cases Autopilot cameras (and human drivers) are intentionally prevented from directly seeing things on the road, but past driving experience (including neural network training data) allows drivers to make reasonable predictions to act accordingly. And in the case of FSD beta, it can render visualizations of what it has guessed with high accuracy.

 

[verygreen]

Dude, you literally quoted, via retweet posts from TSLAQ stating that Tesla pre-loaded HD Maps.
Then you reply to your own thread stating that you believe that HD maps are useful and you cannot understand "why people actively try to refuse the need for HD maps"

as I mentioned in on of the tweed "need" and "a hard requirement" are two different things. Humans need maps but they can operate without. Same could be said about some modes of operation of Tesla AP.

That Tesla has onboard HD maps (not by tesla definition, if you insist) and ability to download more as they go from region to region is well known and documented.
The stop sign handling was dependent on new maps. summon performance was enhanced in real time as people edited openstreet maps depiction of parking lots they were testing on.

You can see notable difference in operation of Tesla stack in areas that have those maps and that don't - fully consistent with my claim of "when you have HD maps, system performance is improved".
The second tweet in the thread included system operating in an area that does not have the maps even (for viz comparison purposes) and you keep claiming I am saying Tesla cannot work without hd maps?

Do you agree with all of the statements made by the account you retweeted? They went on to say "Tesla's cheating with pre-loaded LiDAR-made HD maps." https://twitter.com/GretaMusk/status/1320129690322030592?s=19

I don't agree with the cheating, but they do use very detailed maps. They don't want to call it HD maps? Fine, but if it qwalks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

I don't think there's any evidence that supports the notion that the resolution of details in the maps used by Tesla would require LIDAR to create.

There is not. But here's the thing, LIDAR 3D world maps is just a particular implementation of ultra high detail maps (useful for localization when you have a lidar onboard in particular).
There are other kinds of hd maps that are created without any lidar. e.g. see commaai and mobileeye hd maps that are created with just cameras, onboard gps and such. They call them HD maps too. you cannot just cling to "only hd maps are the waymo-style lidar 3d world stuff" definition for this reason.

If you have a map that delineates road edges, lane edges, stop signs, crosswalks and other such features with great accuracy, are these HD maps already? None of that stuff is needed for coarse navigation maps after all.

 

[mikes_fsd]

if it qwalks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

All you are proving is that you are the quack.

Thank you for taking the time to regurgitate your talking points.
Specifically, that you believe that Tesla is continuously lying to their owners (AND shareholders, I must add) about using HD Maps.
And that you would like to re-define HD Maps to suit your needs.

 

[verygreen]

All you are proving is that you are the quack.

Thank you for taking the time to regurgitate your talking points.
Specifically, that you believe that Tesla is continuously lying to their owners about using HD Maps.
And that you would like to re-define HD Maps to suit your needs.

you are welcome.

The beauty of our world is everybody could have their own opinion based on whatever information there is that informs it.

 

[Mardak]

The stop sign handling was dependent on new maps. summon performance was enhanced in real time as people edited openstreet maps depiction of parking lots they were testing on.

Yup, totally agree that "old" Autopilot behaviors are improved with map data with your examples as well as highway NoA knowing the number of lanes.

Do you know or believe Autopilot is using map data to generate the visualizations of this particular intersection?

Notably as pointed out in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5093925/ there is actually a crosswalk on the far side of the roundabout that the initial visualization did not show. Is that because the map data was wrong and missing the crosswalk but had the crosswalk for the side street?

 

[verygreen]

Also, at times, although I mostly find you very informative and appreciate all you do, you do come off a bit anti-Tesla at times, not just because you report on the negative things Tesla does, but you also tend to skew your language with assuming negative/lying intent on Tesla's part where I personally do not believe things were done maliciously as well.

I could see where what I am saying could be seen in such light.

Please keep in mind Elon did say multiple "untrue" things over time though. Both things he knew were not true and things that could be said "he had no way to know were not true because nobody did it before". And of course I have my own little experiences with Tesla where at times I caught them blatantly lying in my face.

Whenever it was done maliciously or you subscribe to "lies for the greater good" or other such philosophy is besides the point, I personally don't like people lying to me.

 

[powertoold]

If you have a map that delineates road edges, lane edges, stop signs, crosswalks and other such features with great accuracy, are these HD maps already? None of that stuff is needed for coarse navigation maps after all.

Maps by definition are derived from memory or recorded in memory. If the car is visualizing its surroundings on the fly, it's not a map. This is arguing semantics.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I personally don't like people lying to me.

But you are fine making stuff up to thousands of people that normally expect to get actual facts that were dug out of the firmware. (the whole bit of reporting what you see instead of what you want it to be)
Makes total sense!

 

[verygreen]

Do you know or believe Autopilot is using map data to generate the visualizations of this particular intersection?

Autopilot certainly takes map data into account when available and to improve confidence of detections.

You can see it really well in less mapped locations. Like that South Carolina video where you can observe high correlation for mapped side streets (as seen on the side map) to show a lot further away from in the visualization, being a lot less jittery and stay on as they are passed vs the unmapped that appear only super close and disapear as they get out of view of the wide-angle cam.

The vision code now has map inputs into some NNs in addition to radar inputs that certainly helps explain this.

Notably as pointed out in FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta there is actually a crosswalk on the far side of the roundabout that the initial visualization did not show. Is that because the map data was wrong and missing the crosswalk but had the crosswalk for the side street?

need a frame in-between, I think the left side of the other side shows what is a crosswalk. It appears the mapping displayed is not entirely "blind" but instead it still wants at least some faint confirmation before it shows a feature (but if it's not on a map it wants a much-much better view of it than just a hint)

I tried to outline what a possible hint might be that's enough in face of good maps, but not enough when there's no maps.

 

[verygreen]

But you are fine making stuff up to thousands of people that normally expect to get actual facts that were dug out of the firmware. (the whole bit of reporting what you see instead of what you want it to be)
Makes total sense!

I try to clearly separate my opinion from things I derive from firmwares and other sources as such as best as I can. (looking into the firmware is not always a crystal ball too, you know, and I am trying to reflect that because some things are more certain than others)

 

[gluu]

Autopilot certainly takes map data into account when available and to improve confidence of detections.

You can see it really well in less mapped locations. Like that South Carolina video where you can observe high correlation for mapped side streets (as seen on the side map) to show a lot further away from in the visualization, being a lot less jittery and stay on as they are passed vs the unmapped that appear only super close and disapear as they get out of view of the wide-angle cam.

The vision code now has map inputs into some NNs in addition to radar inputs that certainly helps explain this.


need a frame in-between, I think the left side of the other side shows what is a crosswalk. It appears the mapping displayed is not entirely "blind" but instead it still wants at least some faint confirmation before it shows a feature (but if it's not on a map it wants a much-much better view of it than just a hint)

I tried to outline what a possible hint might be that's enough in face of good maps, but not enough when there's no maps.

View attachment 602616

Interesting to see that there are map inputs into the NN. Thanks. Would love to see what happens when the NN and the map disagree...

 

[mikes_fsd]

Autopilot certainly takes map data into account when available and to improve confidence of detections.

Geo-coded traffic controls (gasp, a roundabout is a traffic control) do not an HD Map make!

I honestly wish you would just watch the Karpathy videos that I listed upthread.

 

[verygreen]

If the car is visualizing its surroundings on the fly, it's not a map

what if it does not visualize surroundings when they are not on a map?

 

[mikes_fsd]

what if it does not visualize surroundings when they are not on a map?

Ah, kids, this is the point in the game where we start playing "What if?" games!


It still visualizes the surrounding based on what it sees.

 

[verygreen]

It still visualizes the surrounding based on what it sees.

But does it really?

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1320604581534015488

oh, you mean it does not really see things that are not on the map until it runs into them pretty much and then stops seeing them as they get out of view of the front wide cam?