EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - when Tesla starts their robotaxi network it will be geofenced small scale.
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FSD v12.x (end to end AI)
- Thread starter Buckminster
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- #fixphantombraking 12.4.x is coming autopilot chill is not chill elon is an ass elon rocks fix fsd extreme late deceleration fsd does not commit to go fsd does not maintain proper speed fsd doesn't read signs properly fsd hard and late braking fsd has decision wobble fsd jerky driving fsd late deceleration fsd sometimes may not detect train crossings fsd stops too early too quickly fsd stops too far behind line fsd stops when there is zero visibility fsd tailgating in city streets fsd very slow at stops fsd will never enable l3 with hw4
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure but that would not be the level where you’d say you could go robotaxi (with remote assist)! It’s just not the metric you’d be looking at.
It’s not clear at all that minor-accident (curbing) rates would even correlate with important-accident rates.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You need to read the Virginia Tech study.
More importantly, once the disengagement rates get better, Tesla will be able to analyze the disengagements and figure out a much better "likely accident rate by type". This more than just one general disengagement rate would be the basis of any robotaxi deployment decision. I'm sure a group of data scientists and actuaries would deeply analyze the data before making decisions.
They have to figure out the likely accident & payout rates before starting any robotaxi service.
This is also true for unsupervised "level 3" FSD. This is why Elon keeps saying it has to be >10x better .... if you are getting paid only $15k for what is probably 150,000 miles of driving per lifetime of car - even if they pay out for one big accident per 10 cars / 1.5 Million miles of travel - that will wipe out any FSD revenue they got from those 10 cars - just $150k !
BTW, those who crib about the FSD cost - and think for that money they should be getting real level 3 unsupervised are not doing these calculations.
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Again, why is 100x or more necessary? Let's assume for a moment (perhaps incorrectly) that "safer" directly translates to "fewer deaths". So if FSD is at 2x (NOT saying it is atm), then I'm not sure there is any real argument against using it. There is of course the risk associated with bad publicity when "EV catches fire!!" is a huge blaring headline even when 100's of ICE cars to that every day.
Of course, there are many caveats. For example, if FSD *refused* to allow the car to move AT ALL it would already be 100x better, since the chances of dying in a stationary parked car are quite low.
That's because HE doesnt know either. Emperors new clothes and all that.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
From the company liability perspective it makes a big difference.
At what x will the jury decide it's not the manufacturer fault?
It will always be the manufacturer's fault if found liable/at fault regardless of ideas of theoretical reliability. It will just happen less often if better and not make manufacturer go bankwupt.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Really?
Certainly not Cruise as it turned out!
legendsk
Member
I agree they deployed it, but I think whether they validated it or invalidated it is still unresolved.Well they did validate and deploy it to be fair...
Whole Mars disclaimer: Elon does not have to hold to the promise.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
how is the 1 every 10 mile disengagement rate calculated? I seem to recall a lower disengagement rate being touted shortly after FSD was expanded to highway driving. If you're including highway driving then it will automatically be lower because the number if decisions per mile is much lower. one needs to look at city vs highway miles. You can further break it down to rural vs urban highway miles since the former is about the easiest task FSD has to handle.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Does anyone have any statistics on how long Elon's past '2 week' promises have actually been?
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Anecdotally, a month or two to general roll out.
KArnold
Active Member
Cybertruck is also supposed to come out the door with FSD v12. I'm not holding my breath.
Always shift a CEOs projections to the next time unit. Two weeks really means two months. Likely will miss that as well, but it will be closer to reality.
