FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not better than Alan. He has .1 ms reaction time and super human driving skill. It’s all easy and simple to do.

Without training, my raw reaction time is more like 200ms-250ms. These are just pedestrian times.

This is far faster than anything yet demonstrated by FSD v12. And that's without any training, and it neglects the ability to anticipate, which helps humans even more.

Certainly in future, some version of FSD will be superhuman and completely unbeatable, but there is zero evidence of that when looking at pure reaction time, for now. Response time is something that will clearly improve in future even if there are other major limitations of AI which render autonomy impossible for the time being.

There are plenty of arguments to be made about how it's always aware, won't screw up, has eyes in all directions, etc., and those all have validity, but are not relevant to the discussion. Competent human still wins out; that is something we can all agree on! And a competent human with FSD Background Assist (which will always be a free feature!) may be completely unbeatable.

being a definite noticeable step in improvement.

It's definitely going to be a noticeable step in improvement, otherwise they would not release it.

The question is will it be 5x-10x better as would be expected based on the theory? That's the bar the end-to-end AI proponents have set for themselves. They won't be saying "well they have to learn how to get the big improvements in performance with retraining, that will take time, we'll have to wait for 12.5 or 12.6" - they won't engage in that sort of moving of the goal posts - end-to-end AI is the answer.

 

[fasteddie7]

The real question is, did the Mrs. catch you sneaking out late to do the software check?

She is accustomed to my nerdy shenanigans. She has lived through midnight releases of Xboxes, camera equipment, phones, and laptops, this falls somewhere between a half eye roll and he’s at it again message to her sister.

 

[enemji]

Not better than Alan. He has .1 ms reaction time and super human driving skill. It’s all easy and simple to do.

For sure ...

 

[enemji]

Without training, my raw reaction time is more like 200ms-250ms.

Lewis Hamilton (I hope you know him) has a 200ms reaction time. You should challenge him. you could be the next F1 champ.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Lewis Hamilton (I hope you know him) has a 200ms reaction time. You should challenge him. you could be the next F1 champ.

Yeah, training and raw talent/ability together go a long way. 230ms is pretty pedestrian; it's just normal, there is nothing unusual about it.

 

[FSDtester#1]

She is accustomed to my nerdy shenanigans. She has lived through midnight releases of Xboxes, camera equipment, phones, and laptops, this falls somewhere between a half eye roll and he’s at it again message to her sister.

I get the "OMG, are you really that much of a nerd?"
I have to reply with "Yes, you didn't know this already?"

 

[enemji]

Yeah, training and raw talent/ability together go a long way. 230ms is pretty pedestrian; it's just normal, there is nothing unusual about it.

for superman, flying is just normal.

200-250ms appears instantaneous to most people in this world. For few, that seems like slow motion, and feels laggy.

 

[enemji]

This is far faster than anything yet demonstrated by FSD v12. And that's without any training, and it neglects the ability to anticipate, which helps humans even more.

Certainly in future, some version of FSD will be superhuman and completely unbeatable, but there is zero evidence of that when looking at pure reaction time, for now. Response time is something that will clearly improve in future even if there are other major limitations of AI which render autonomy impossible for the time being.

You know what beats the fastest reacting humans? Slow moving objects.

 

[kabin]

Why do you say it has no contextual awareness? FSD is trained on video clips that are long enough to provide context, and certainly takes the last ~30 seconds into account when making decisions. The occupancy network is persistent, providing at least short-term "memory" of objects and places the car previously saw but can't currently see.

That's next level stuff. V12 isn't aware of sign postings like no turn on red let alone retaining 30 secs of memory.

 

[Ben W]

That's next level stuff. V12 isn't aware of sign postings like no turn on red let alone retaining 30 secs of memory.

Elon begs to differ.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799402818639712548

 

[kabin]

Elon begs to differ.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799402818639712548

Don't you think the training data needed would be astronomic?

 

[Ben W]

Don't you think the training data needed would be astronomic?

Tesla already has and uses astronomic amounts of training data. I’m not sure what you think would require it to be more astronomic than it already is? Granted it doesn’t yet know how to read no-right-on-red signs, but it will still make such turns safely, if not legally. Also note that by similar standards, 95% of human drivers don’t know how to read stop signs.

 

[enemji]

Elon begs to differ.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799402818639712548

What elon says means that the FSD is planning about 1 to 5 seconds ahead based upon on what it sees. Just like humans. IF we had to see everything right in front of us, we would be driving into every pothole, but we don't. We see it ahead of time, and plan our route accordingly. If this were not the case, we would be ping pong-ing all the way between the lane markers, especially when making curves on a highway. Curves on highway was exactly what Blue Cruise had a ton of problems with.

 

[maddogs]

I had this same issue mentioned earlier where the car would not show itself trying to update. A manual reboot did not help. However, on the last trip the screen rebooted on its own, and this did correct it

 

[FSDtester#1]

My software update button finally worked, but nothing there. I would suspect most will start getting it before Monday

 

[JulienW]

My software update button finally worked, but nothing there. I would suspect most will start getting it before Monday

Does the Batmobile give you a BIG nothing burger often there Batman? I bet your arch nemesis gottagofast won't get rejected when they now go fastly out to their gottagomobile and check (probably will report success as soon as I hit Post). It is all but assured they will be passing you by in the gottagomoble on 12.4.1 while the old Batmobile limps along on 12.3.6.

​

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

Good to know in advance this is how attention monitoring works. Once it gets into the blue flashes, simply returning your attention to the road is not sufficient, you need to tug on the wheel:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799496953283113030

This is pretty dismal.

 

[heltok]

What elon says means that the FSD is planning about 1 to 5 seconds ahead based upon on what it sees. Just like humans. IF we had to see everything right in front of us, we would be driving into every pothole, but we don't. We see it ahead of time, and plan our route accordingly. If this were not the case, we would be ping pong-ing all the way between the lane markers, especially when making curves on a highway. Curves on highway was exactly what Blue Cruise had a ton of problems with.

My guess is that Elon means that it forms some kind of state of the physical world around the car, like a NERF and as it moves and some areas become occluded it remembers what it saw a while ago.

 

[JulienW]

This is pretty dismal.

I've said it before I wish we had a detected IR eye tracker like Ford and GM (HELL and a detected rain sensor too). It is too much of a hit and miss game trying to get all the conditions PERFECT for Tesla's ad hock "Deep Eyes" system to MAYBE work SOME of the time.

 

[dhanson865]

Why’s the latest USB stick we should use to increase sentry recording space? I’ve seen so many opinions for durability and extreme temperatures
What size also?

I would say it needs to be about the size of your smallest fingernail + the usb connector.

I suggest one that has USB 3.2 connectivity rating and 512GB or more capacity.

The higher the write speed rating the better. But if you are trying to save money anything over 400MB/s is OK for now. I've got a few on my wish list at 400 MB/s and one on the list at 600/MB/s watching the prices. I already have a drive in the 400MB/s range.

You can always buy a faster / higher capacity drive a few years from now.