FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[JulienW]

Then what will unsupervised V12 be called? I think the beta tag will be used to distinguish between supervised and unsupervised versions of FSD.

L2 (supervised) and L3 (unsupervised) when/IF implemented. Of course Tesla could likely give them catchy or obtuse names. How about something like RFSD (Real FSD/L3) and AFSD (Assisted FSD/L2).

Also why would there need to be different versions? There aren't different versions of Autosteer or other features. It would just be which MODE you select or have available to you in your area/ODD/regulations.

 

[replicant]

Omar is a dude who writes iphone apps and now works at what seems to be his dads company (which does accounting and time tracking stuff)

Chuck is a former navy, and commercial airline, pilot and currently head of, among other things, navigation, surveillance & technical programs at Jetblue airlines.

So I'm not sure I agree with your thoughts on who's more qualified to discuss vehicle automation software.
(that's apart from the times Omar's been caught being less than honest about his videos)

Charles Cook - JetBlue Airways | LinkedIn

Nineteen years experience at JetBlue leading Communications, Navigation, Surveillance… | Learn more about Charles Cook’s work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their profile on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

 

[zoomer0056]

Then what will unsupervised V12 be called? I think the beta tag will be used to distinguish between supervised and unsupervised versions of FSD.

From ChatGPT ( but Tesla follows its own rules):
In software development, the "beta" designation indicates that the software is in a pre-release testing phase. It's not the final version but is made available to a limited group of users for testing and gathering feedback. Beta versions may still have bugs or incomplete features, and the testing helps identify and address issues before the official release.

 

[drtimhill]

Exactly! That’s why I no longer drive with my hands at 10 and 2. I’m sure I’ve already saved at least a half a dozen wrist fractures. In fact I‘m thinking of getting a yoke to make sure I can never assume such a horrible driving position again. /s

Honestly, I’ve had people say that having my hands on my knees while using FSD is ‘dangerous’ because they’re not on the wheel and it would take too long to assume control but I can grab the wheel faster from that position than I could if my hand was all the way through.

I've been the driver in an airbag deployment. While the deployment did rip the watch off my wrist, that was the only issue I had. if you watch the way they deploy in the slo-mo, they tend to bypass the steering wheel and actually press your hands DOWN onto the wheel somewhat (that is, the bas is pressing back down ONTO the wheel). However, for all that I was able to walk away from a very nasty crash thanks to the airbags.

 

[Yelobird]

I've been the driver in an airbag deployment. While the deployment did rip the watch off my wrist, that was the only issue I had. if you watch the way they deploy in the slo-mo, they tend to bypass the steering wheel and actually press your hands DOWN onto the wheel somewhat (that is, the bas is pressing back down ONTO the wheel). However, for all that I was able to walk away from a very nasty crash thanks to the airbags.

Yikes that would be a pucker moment. Now imagine the same event with your hand on the center horn at deployment. Airbags are an incredible invention with incredible power to make them effective. Glad you survived your event.

 

[powertoold]

V12 is the most impressive software I've ever witnessed, blows my mind the level of subtlety it is understanding its environment, it reacts to very small distances and velocities and blinks and intentions and has incredible foresight

The subtleties of its generalizations is insane and I've only witnessed one inhuman misjudgment (overtaking the cars at the stop sign in the AI driver video)

 

[Usain]

If autonomy was solved by "more data" and "more compute" it would have been solved five years ago.

We've learned a lot about neural nets in the last 5 years. And computing power for training has increased exponentially.

So no, what Tesla is doing with V12 could not have been done 5 years ago.

 

[Captkerosene]

V12.2 is coming out, it's the end of Waymo

It is the end of Waymo. The Billions in cash and data coming in from a functioning FSD will push full autonomy across the finish line. The Billions going out at Waymo will doom that program to failure as it becomes clear that Tesla will achieve full autonomy with a more cost effective solution.

 

[Knightshade]

Well, likewise, there's no legal definition for FSD

There is though. Tesla themselves define it in the product description shown during your purchase of it.

There's been 2 entirely different ones of course, with the change coming around March/April 2019. So what the buyer is still owed, if anything, would differ depending on buying before or after that change.

or "action"

Action, unlike beta, has common legal definitions for contract purposes that would apply to any case involving Tesla, and specifically any lawsuit over undelivered FSD features for the 3/19 and earlier buyers.

CA DMV used "FSD beta" name in communication with Tesla legal in the context of "City Streets" feature and how it's a driver-assistance feature not subject to regulations related to autonomous features. If Tesla changes the name for some later 12.x to remove "beta," presumably regulators will want to know why, but potentially Tesla would continue to argue that even without the "beta" word, FSD still has limitations and responsibilities communicated to drivers.

Yeah, it's not the name that's relevant to regulators, it's the features, ability, and design intent of the software.

Then what will unsupervised V12 be called?

It'll be called FSD. Your insistence they need a bunch of different names makes little sense... EAP didn't experience any change in name (or removal of the beta tag either) as new capabilities were rolled out--- why would FSD?

 

[powertoold]

Action, unlike beta, has common legal definitions for contract purposes that would apply to any case involving Tesla, and specifically any lawsuit over undelivered FSD features for the 3/19 and earlier buyers.

Yes but Tesla never defined what constitutes an "action"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It'll be called FSD.

That is what he is saying.

Silly hypothetical argument though.

 

[dramsey]

How? There's no legal definition, or meaning, for the word.

well, yeah, but that's true for a lot of words, especially for "terms of art" in various disciplines.

From a software developer perspective, you'll find very broad agreement that "beta" typically denotes software that is considered feature complete, but has not been thoroughly validated. "Validation" would consist of bug regression and functional testing.

It's important to note that software out of beta may still have known bugs.

What I imagine a lawyer would do in a courtroom setting is bring in an expert witness and ask them to define "beta" in this context.

 

[dramsey]

V12 is the most impressive software I've ever witnessed, blows my mind the level of subtlety it is understanding its environment, it reacts to very small distances and velocities and blinks and intentions and has incredible foresight

The subtleties of its generalizations is insane and I've only witnessed one inhuman misjudgment (overtaking the cars at the stop sign in the AI driver video)

Bear in mind that you're watching a carefully edited series of video from a single person. Are there situations in which V12 does insanely stupid things, or is worse for a given case than V11? We don't know, and while we can see V12 doing amazing things in Omar's videos, we won't really know how good it is until it gets into the hands of a lot more testers.

 

[powertoold]

Bear in mind that you're watching a carefully edited series of video from a single person. Are there situations in which V12 does insanely stupid things, or is worse for a given case than V11? We don't know, and while we can see V12 doing amazing things in Omar's videos, we won't really know how good it is until it gets into the hands of a lot more testers.

I don't think the videos are edited in any way. I watch the 1x videos, and in many videos, Omar narrates or has a guest, and unless Omar loves to waste time, I doubt he's re-recording multiple narrated videos and only uploading narrated videos that were "successful"

You can claim he omits the major flaws, but otherwise, I don't think you can claim he edits his 1x videos

 

[spacecoin]

We've learned a lot about neural nets in the last 5 years. And computing power for training has increased exponentially.
So no, what Tesla is doing with V12 could not have been done 5 years ago.

Nothing of what you're saying is true.
We haven't "learned a lot" in the last five years. The last major break-though was in 2017. Is there anything in particular you are referring to?

"And computing power for training has increased exponentially" doesn't mean anything, but no, it hasn't.

How do you reckon Waymo was outperforming what Tesla has today five years ago, by a factor of 100x or so in terms of reliability... What Tesla has is undeployable as unsupervised, and it's been about the same for 2+ years. v12 won't likely change this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1085944196186304512

Elons brother said "perhaps in five years, definitely this decade" in a recent interview, which I found funny. so perhaps 2029, definitely 2030?

Edit: Link:

Elon Musk's brother Kimbal is not as optimistic about Tesla's Full Self-Driving

Elon Musk’s brother Kimbal, who is also a board member at Tesla, is not as optimistic as his brother about...

electrek.co

 

[Daniel in SD]

It'll be called FSD. Your insistence they need a bunch of different names makes little sense... EAP didn't experience any change in name (or removal of the beta tag either) as new capabilities were rolled out--- why would FSD?

Elon said the beta tag is to encourage people to pay attention. Obviously that will not be necessary for unsupervised V12 so they will remove the beta tag in that extraordinarily unlikely scenario. Just my prediction!

 

[powertoold]

People don't seem to understand what we're witnessing with V12, Waymo is nothing next to what V12 represents and is capable of

 

[spacecoin]

People don't seem to understand what we're witnessing with V12, Waymo is nothing next to what V12 represents and is capable of

It will blow or minds and be "on fire"?

Here's where we are today:

 

[JulienW]

People don't seem to understand what we're witnessing with V12, Waymo is nothing next to what V12 represents and is capable of

I have watched a few videos of V12 but I have NOT witnessed V12 yet. While I see a lot of promise I'm not drinking the Koolaid (for the >10th time) until I actually WITNESS it by riding in or better driving in my car in the city I live in.

 

[JHCCAZ]

Then what will unsupervised V12 be called?

RFSD (Real FSD/L3) and AFSD (Assisted FSD/L2).

Knowing Elon's tendencies, it will be respectively:
Completely FuSD Up and Partly FuSD Up

I'm hoping it doesn't take too much longer for me to get Completely FuSD Up.