FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[stopcrazypp]

There have been other accidents on FSD Beta if you use Tesla's numbers, I was more surprised when Tesla put out those numbers and we had never seen any of the incidents on social media or anything. But of course the majority of testers are testing and not videotaping it.

Kinda amusing that WholeMarsBlog and others are going on the offensive because the guy late last year was receiving warnings when using FSD Beta and I think was suspended at one point

It's not reasonable to assume there are no accidents on FSD Beta. Just based on statistics it is bound to happen (happens even with the best L4 system). Heck, even a fatality is bound to happen, just based on the miles driven while it is use.

The difference here is this was an "at fault" accident with not even shared fault (assuming the account is accurate). Usually those get more scrutiny, as the default assumption is it is a deficiency with the system (that hopefully can be fixed).

 

[PianoAl]

Anyone notice that the car has ultrasonic sensors!

I didn't word that clearly. My point was that from the photos of the damage you can see that the car has ultrasonic sensors.

 

[Mardak]

12.2.1 disengagement for almost sideswiping at a 2-lane onramp:

I'm guessing end-to-end thought the really wide lane it switched into was already the 2nd-right-most lane, so it was going to continue left of the black vehicle staying in the right-most lane. But the vehicle to the left was in the actual 2nd-right lane taking the fork to the onramp.

 

[Mardak]

The latter [potentially confused by your early turn signal]

Thanks. I would think training end-to-end to avoid early turn signals is a bit trickier than generally learning to engage the turn signals at all. Currently it seems like 12.x is improved in that it knows not to turn on signals for curves/forks that people wouldn't use the signal for as well as to turn on for merges, etc. But a mix of training data that engages the signal say 5 seconds before an intersection vs only 2 seconds before (to avoid the confusion of early signal) could seem like variation / noise of when people like to engage (or not even use) turn signals.

Tesla could use shadow mode to detect when the driver engages the turn signal later than what 12.x networks would want to. And hopefully there's enough consistency in the data to pick up on the intermediate signal of "there's an intersection before where I want to turn." Or maybe Tesla can detect when people manually intervene by turning off the turn signals that 12.x engaged?

 

[rlsd]

How come I don't receive any notifications about new posts from TMC anymore?

 

[Dewg]

How come I don't receive any notifications about new posts from TMC anymore?

TMC is sending you a clear message

 

[flutas]

Just seems easiest to assume it was. Not really any downside and seems very reasonable.

Obviously we could talk back and forth about it but we’ll never know. Just have to make the best assumption, whatever that is.

I guess one of the very basic questions I'll ask since it's still up for debate...

Has the guy even posted a picture of v12 installed on his car as proof?

Checking his twitter that's not where the video originally came from, and he hasn't posted a picture of V12 at all. Or even talked about it until the video was posted by someone else. That, with the small rollout of v12 leads me to think he doesn't have v12 and is trying to get some "air time."

 

[fcastrillo86]

@fcastrillo86 is that you? Seems like one trick is to post nothing in the V12 thread to get it sooner! We're expecting updates right away!

how am i just seeing this LOL. Yes that is me, i really don't know how I won the v12 jackpot but I hope it goes out to testers soon! Really my biggest annoyance (and sounds like other v12 testers too) is the car's tendency to be a granny and take longer to reach my speed overage setpoint, let alone speed limit, on city streets. I messed with toggling to Assertive mode (from Average) for a bit, and all it did was make takeoffs from lights/stops more forceful, but still hesitated to reach and/or maintain faster speeds.

On that note, some days are better than others. Yesterday in particular I hardly had to even nudge the accelerator to encourage the car to speed up. It hovered nicely between speed limit and my 12% overage. Other days though it needed accel presses every few seconds on long empty straights. Still, it's impressive how much smoother the overall experience is now, and while the granny accel is annoying, I can't see this being a dealbreaker for ppl antsy to try this latest release. I wish they would push this version to all who are willing to deal with the issues, though I suspect with Elon mentioning some fixes coming with v12.3, we will all be stuck waiting on that as a possible wider release candidate

 

[diplomat33]

Interesting case. Technically, FSD had the right of way so it handled that turn correctly. But I think the human driver thought that they had the right of way so they felt like FSD cut them off and got annoyed. To be fair, it does look like FSD was being a jerk even though it had the right of way. Probably FSD maybe should have yielded just to be safer, to avoid any possible collision. After all, FSD could have waited for a bigger gap so as not to cut off the other driver like that. That would have been safer IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762187779608564055

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't think you can tell distance estimation precision from collisions or lack thereof. After all, Waymo has lidar sensors that have distance accuracy down to millimeters and it still hit the same truck twice.

For example, if you took an average human and asked them to estimate the distance from their bumper to the vehicle ahead, I wouldn't be sure they would necessarily be able to give a number that is more accurate than the functions used by FSD Beta (at least for V11, not sure what the equivalent would be for E2E). Yet that doesn't impede them from driving safely. What humans do a better job at is intuitively figure out when to give a larger margin as appropriate. For example, most humans would not make that turn as confidently.

It's unsure what the car was attempting. Looking at other videos of V12, even for cars with USS, it does not transition to parking automatically, but rather would just stop in the travel lane.

I suppose it’s possible that like Waymo it predicted the car would move out of the way. With end-to-end there’s really no way of knowing.
Which is why I’m very pessimistic about this approach. I worry it will end up working a lot like ChatGPT, remarkably reliable most of the time but inexplicably wrong way too often.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Interesting case. Technically, FSD had the right of way so it handled that turn correctly. But I think the human driver thought that they had the right of way so they felt like FSD cut them off and got annoyed. To be fair, it does look like FSD was being a jerk even though it had the right of way. Probably FSD maybe should have yielded just to be safer, to avoid any possible collision. After all, FSD could have waited for a bigger gap so as not to cut off the other driver like that. That would have been safer IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762187779608564055

A lot of people in California don't know that left turn should yield to the right turn. It may also be the case they have a green left arrow and thus assumed you were turning on a red (in which case you don't have the right of way). In that case it depends on the signaling at that intersection.

 

[JulienW]

Interesting case. Technically, FSD had the right of way so it handled that turn correctly....

Wait....you are confused. The other drivers had the Left of way.

 

[fcastrillo86]

Interesting case. Technically, FSD had the right of way so it handled that turn correctly. But I think the human driver thought that they had the right of way so they felt like FSD cut them off and got annoyed. To be fair, it does look like FSD was being a jerk even though it had the right of way. Probably FSD maybe should have yielded just to be safer, to avoid any possible collision. After all, FSD could have waited for a bigger gap so as not to cut off the other driver like that. That would have been safer IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762187779608564055

I would've also preferred FSD to yield in this case, unless the gap was big enough to not feel like the FSD car was cutting off the oncoming car turning left. More of a comfort thing IMO than right of way. Would rather be honked at from behind waiting for a gap instead of getting into a shouting match with the guy who got cut off

 

[JulienW]

...It may also be the case they have a green left arrow and thus assumed you were turning on a red (in which case you don't have the right of way). In that case it depends on the signaling at that intersection.

That is contradiction. You can't have a NON protected protected left arrow.

 

[diplomat33]

A lot of people in California don't know that left turn should yield to the right turn. It may also be the case they have a green left arrow and thus assumed you were turning on a red (in which case you don't have the right of way). In that case it depends on the signaling at that intersection.

At this intersection, the left turn should yield to the right turn. So the Tesla had the right-of-way in this case:

"To be clear for those that are wondering about official right of way rules at this intersection. Both sides have a green light (no green arrow) so right turn has right of way."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762189784309764440

 

[Wnuk]

So in the case of the parking fender bender, could it be they were attempting to use auto park after a drive instead of V12? Does V12 have auto park feature?

I’m trying to understand how something so obvious as an imminent collision wasn’t intervened with by the driver?

 

[fcastrillo86]

So in the case of the parking fender bender, could it be they were attempting to use auto park after a drive instead of V12? Does V12 have auto park feature?

I’m trying to understand how something so obvious as an imminent collision wasn’t intervened with by the driver?

I get the sense they were trying to use v12's new autopark-like behavior at the end of a nav route and they probably misjudged bumper distance until it was too late to intervene. for what it's worth, I have not been able to get the actual Autopark function to work on v12. The "P" logo normally used to indicate Autopark availability hasn't been coming up for me, but worked fine (albeit excruciatingly slow) on v11.4.9. I believe there's one other person on X who also hasn't been able to get Autopark to work

 

[stopcrazypp]

That is contradiction. You can't have a NON protected protected left arrow.

You can if there are signal timing problems at an intersection. From this thread someone pointed an example:

https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/n7xpq2/comment/gxgvcfl

I'm just accounting for all possibilities (just like how FSD Beta would have to account for).

 

[Todd Burch]

Do we even have confirmation that FSD was actually enabled when the parking lot accident occurred? Only asking because we often see cases of unintended acceleration where people blame the car or FSD and the driver was just trying to cover for their own mistakes. Do we have any evidence one way or the other in this case?

 

[Todd Burch]

Interesting case. Technically, FSD had the right of way so it handled that turn correctly. But I think the human driver thought that they had the right of way so they felt like FSD cut them off and got annoyed. To be fair, it does look like FSD was being a jerk even though it had the right of way. Probably FSD maybe should have yielded just to be safer, to avoid any possible collision. After all, FSD could have waited for a bigger gap so as not to cut off the other driver like that. That would have been safer IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762187779608564055

I would have preferred v12 honk like hell and flip the bird while all those drivers illegally usurped FSD's right of way. Does anyone in Cali know how to drive? (Don't answer that, I used to live there so I know that the percentage is small).

Short of that, yes it would have been safer to yield but I don't exactly feel bad for the driver whose joyride got interrupted by a healthy dose of "this ain't your turn to take".