FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[swedge]

You have been around since the beginning!

I tried in the beginning, SS 100 and all, but fate slowed things down, in the form of a flying deer. Waiting for repair parts after the deer strike delayed me checking into the Hotel FSD till 6/9/22, with 2022.3.20 (fsd10.12.2). By the time the car was fixed, sign-ups for the beta program were throttled way back.

If (TMC's) memory serves, you got FSDβ on 10/11/21. link

Oh, wait! That was about the same time an SUV threw that poor deer under our MY! Did you have a friend visiting Yosemite that week? Maybe it was not fate after all... ;-)

 

[drtimhill]

Everyone should make more use of bookmarks and hold each other accountable. Remember that some here believe Elon went forward with the 8/8 Robotaxi date based on the strength of what he had seen from 12.4 and 12.5! Will that assessment be correct? Let’s see!

That is a two way street. There were MANY posts here before FSDb appeared claiming to "prove" that the cameras would not be able to see red lights, or could not see far enough down the road to make even a safe right turn. Then others that said without LIDAR/RADAR the effort was doomed etc etc. They turned out to be be wrong, too.

As I've said a number of times before in these forums, Tesla is exploring new territory with FSD, and no-one, not Elon, not anyone here, really knows where things well end up. What has been interesting to me is how much progress HAS been made in a couple of years since the very early (and very shaky) betas to now. The optimists will take that as a sign that everything is going well, and the pessimists will just point to march of 9's or whatever they want to dampen things, but no-one can be a realist because we simply dont know.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Then others that said without LIDAR/RADAR the effort was doomed etc etc. They turned out to be be wrong, too.

We’ll see when Tesla actually releases the Robotaxi.
I would note that most detractors only thought it was not possible with current technology not that it would never be possible.

 

[enemji]

That doesn’t match my experience. In fact V12 tends to dither about which one to choose and often ends up taking rightmost lane as much as any other.

In my case, it dithers only when both the left turn lanes are empty, and then it is 50/50. But anytime the lanes are occupied, it very confidently takes the rightmost lane.

 

[Todd Burch]

I really doubt its THAT much of an improvement, but hopefully it is a very noticeable step in the right direction. FSD v12.3 was an amazing improvement, and even if 12.4 goes back for a bit (which has regularly happened along the FSD road of progress) as long as updates to 12.4 right the ship we'll still be looking good overall.

Its going to be incredibly interesting to see what kind of shape FSD is in by the end of this year.

I don’t think we’ll see as much in the way of regressions now that we’re fully in NN-land. Every version will have more and better training and probably more neurons/layers. Not that there won’t be regressions, but with heuristic code we’d often give up in one place to gain in another. I’m expecting to see more consistent forward progress now.

 

[enemji]

Crazy that people are still sacrificing their wheels! I just disengage before every right turn (and some left ones).

I have over 10k miles on FSD. No wheel damage yet. Never taken over a left or right turn fearing that it might jump the curb/median.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Tesla CyberCab

Tesla Reveals Robotaxi App and Names the Robotaxi the CyberCab

Tesla prepares to unveil its ride-hailing product Robotaxi or, as Musk called it, Tesla CyberCab.

www.notateslaapp.com

Interesting, maybe it won’t be a robotaxi at all. It might just be a regular car with “cyber” design language and FSD (supervised)

 

[indysurfer]

Intersections like that exist in San Diego too. It doesn’t look difficult to see that the other directions do not have a stop sign.

This one is actually a little trickier because there is a sign to the right but it’s a yield sign. No stop sign for cars turning left.

I know that street! I used to drive past Mt. Soledad every day going to work. Some of the best coastal views in San Diego - IMO.

 

[HitchHiker71]

As always "by this weekend" AGAIN. Starting to wonder if this is an Elon persona bot.

Is this the new updated version of the “two weeks” bot?

 

[gottagofast]

As always "by this weekend" AGAIN. Starting to wonder if this is an Elon persona bot.

This weekend means Monday I have learned

 

[Todd Burch]

Anyone else more interested in ass than FSD 12.4

Yes but since I’m married 12.4 will definitely come first.

 

[mtndrew1]

This weekend means Monday I have learned

Monday, Octember eleventy-third. You’ll learn.

 

[sleepydoc]

There’s a difference between necessary interventions and interventions though. Cruise and Waymo both went driverless after they reached about 5-10k miles between disengagements because the vast majority of disengagements did not prevent a collision. I agree that FSD won’t get there on the current hardware.

The overwhelming majority of my disengagements on 12.3.6 are personal preference issues (e.g. I want to be in a different turn lane, I don't like how it's stopping, etc.) There is some grey area, too - the disengagement I had earlier today, for example. Would it have caused an accident? Probably not, but it wasn't safe and I didn't want to find out. There are also cases where what it's doing is wrong and/or illegal but may not cause an accident.

 

[sleepydoc]

We’ll see when Tesla actually releases the Robotaxi.
I would note that most detractors only thought it was not possible with current technology not that it would never be possible.

Except most of the people talking about Robotaxis are doing it more troll off of Elon's tweets than anything else. The majority of people here don't want a robotaxi, they just want a competent L3 or L4 system. there's a difference.

 

[joelkfla]

Anyone else more interested in ass than FSD 12.4

I'm too old. FSD is the main source of excitement in my life.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Except most of the people talking about Robotaxis are doing it more troll off of Elon's tweets than anything else. The majority of people here don't want a robotaxi, they just want a competent L3 or L4 system. there's a difference.

Except for traffic jam L3 that sounds even more difficult than robotaxis (which are very close to L3 in my opinion because they rely on remote assistance). Robotaxis can be geofenced to much smaller areas than a practical consumer system.

 

[Tronguy]

Except most of the people talking about Robotaxis are doing it more troll off of Elon's tweets than anything else. The majority of people here don't want a robotaxi, they just want a competent L3 or L4 system. there's a difference.

I dunno about that last: speak for yourself, here.

I’m in this because, well, it’s shiny, it’s new, and it’s pushing the state of the art past anything that isn’t pure science fiction.

This isn’t just a “better mousetrap”. If Tesla pulls off the robotaxi technology the world is going to change, likely for the better.

And it’s going to gore the oxen of a heck of a lot of entrenched interests who would rather see the world burn than change their ways.

And, yeah, I do have a monetary interest in this: several years back I took a close look at what was going on and put my “mad” money where my mouth was and picked up some shares. Between the stock splits and all I’ve made a paper tidy sum. That’s fun: but if the robotaxi comes to fruition it’s going to be like being an early investor in Bershire-Hathaway, only better.

It’s a great time to be alive.

 

[kabin]

I have over 10k miles on FSD. No wheel damage yet. Never taken over a left or right turn fearing that it might jump the curb/median.

And it shouldn't happen but v12.3.6 still has trouble staying centered in the lane. It regularly crosses over the double yellow lines/median with intersection left turns. Still struggles with the basics.

 

[DRYICE69]

Yes but since I’m married 12.4 will definitely come first.

Could maybe fix this if you let your wife come first.

 

[Todd Burch]

Could maybe fix this if you let your wife come first.

Or at all, perhaps.