FSD video completely fake?

[croman]

I do wonder whether FSD will have a "bitcoin" moment, where early investors with patience are the real winners once it takes off. For sure it will be a super-premium option on new cars until the regulators make it as mandatory as seat belts and air bags.

FSD shouldn't require blind faith nor is it a speculative investment. This is a retail product with the same consumer protections (and concomitant legal exposure for Tesla).

But my brother invested 100k in crypto and I bought a car. Guess who can afford 50 Teslas and who can't?

 

[jimmy_d]

I agree with your conclusion except that Tesla took on the burden of proof when they marketed FSD as a viable vehicle option and took $ for that option. I know he/we will ultimately get to that miracle in the video but I'm no longer certain it will be during the ownership lifecycle of my vehicle (worse for those who leased)...

Exactly. I think you have a totally legitimate gripe there because this is clearly not how customers expect to be treated by a car company. And I think Tesla probably knew that they were setting themselves up for this when they started taking orders. It's not something that a normal company would do and people aren't used to it.

But by taking that money Tesla put themselves into a spot that forces them to work as hard and as smart as possible to deliver. I think Musk is intentionally putting his company into a bind so that they are forced to deliver. That takes giant clinking stainless steel balls and I'm frankly amazed that he can do it. I sure as hell don't have what it takes to do something like that.

Buying Tesla is participating in a moonshot. I like moonshots. I wish there were more of them. Maybe Musk's companies will show us how to have more.

 

[banned-66611]

I do wonder whether FSD will have a "bitcoin" moment, where early investors with patience are the real winners once it takes off. For sure it will be a super-premium option on new cars until the regulators make it as mandatory as seat belts and air bags.

I'm taking the currently listed post-purchase upgrade price as legally binding.

 

[banned-66611]

I think Musk is intentionally putting his company into a bind so that they are forced to deliver.

I think you could be right. "Focus minds" as an old boss used to say. Never made any difference, engineering doesn't really work that way.

 

[croman]

I'm taking the currently listed post-purchase upgrade price as legally binding.

I wouldn't. There is nothing binding Tesla to that price if you haven't paid it. Its just an option and Tesla reserves the right to change it. They did it with AP1 and I'm sure they'll do it with FSD once its worth more than speculation.

So if you really want FSD, act before Tesla does. Otherwise save your money, invest it smartly and it probably will be a better decision than what I did.

 

[BigD0g]

I wouldn't. There is nothing binding Tesla to that price if you haven't paid it. Its just an option and Tesla reserves the right to change it. They did it with AP1 and I'm sure they'll do it with FSD once its worth more than speculation.

So if you really want FSD, act before Tesla does. Otherwise save your money, invest it smartly and it probably will be a better decision than what I did.

I suspect we have at least several more months before we see anything that would cause price pressure on FSD. Year's almost out, and I feel very safe for my 1st half of my bet with @calisnow.

 

[calisnow]

I'm taking the currently listed post-purchase upgrade price as legally binding.

There's nothing legally binding about it. It simply means that right now, after you purchase your car, Tesla will sell you the FSD option for $4K. It does NOT mean they are required to do so forever.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

And I think Tesla probably knew that they were setting themselves up for this when they started taking orders.

You do realize it makes things enen worse if Tesla knew this.

The problem isn't the moonshot - setting a goal before you can do it. (That's the new narrative, huh?)

The problem is taking people's money for it, without telling them it is a moonshot.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There's nothing legally binding about it. It simply means that right now, after you purchase your car, Tesla will sell you the FSD option for $4K. It does NOT mean they are required to do so forever.

I guess consumer legislation might bind Tesla in some jurisdictions given how liberally Tesla touted the after-purchase price as part of the sale. This might become one of those things (P85D lack of HP, P90DL performance counters/limiters) that are tested and/or settled somewhere.

However, I agree Tesla will themselves probably consider they can change the price at any time - and likely will change the price. So if someone wants to guarantee a price for themselves, they probably would be wise to act before it is too late. That said, the wisdom of "investing" in Tesla's FSD is another question altogether.

 

[buttershrimp]

You do realize it makes things enen worse if Tesla knew this.

The problem isn't the moonshot - setting a goal before you can do it. (That's the new narrative, huh?)

The problem is taking people's money for it, without telling them it is a moonshot.

Also @JimmyD since we are on the subject....

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@buttershrimp You are right, that is what this conversation has evolved into. On both sides.

"Oh my God, I just made eye contact with Elon!" Moonshot, baby!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

By the way, to be clear on the moonshot reference, I don't have a problem with Tesla promising the moon to investors (within law and common public company practices, of course). Investing is about risks and rewards. That is perfectly fair. Keep promising the moon to investors, to your employees, in your PR, by all means. I can be a fan of that.

However, selling to consumers has no such risk-reward spectrum. Especially once you take their money, you can't just dismiss and excuse things with a moonshot. The very simple cure for this is, stop taking money for things you can't guarantee will come out as you say.

I've said it time and again:

What if Tesla had simply sold AP2 hardware, in October 2016, with Design Studio continuing with the AP1 Autopilot option and nothing more than a disclaimer of saying this feature will be enabled in, say, 6-12 months (or even a more conservative number). That would, of course, still have been taking some money in advance (for AP1 parity), but it would have been a reasonable compromise given Tesla's situation - stopping selling Autopilot 1 would probably not have been an option. All people would have been promised and sold would have been the same AP1 that was selling at that time.

How would that look, today, 13 months later? Not completely optimal, but still heck of a lot better than comparing EAP/FSD promises with the reality of AP2! And it would have been logical: Tesla would have basically kept the Design Studio and the car's currently sold features and options the same as they were in September 2016, while just changing the underlying hardware from AP1 to AP2.

They could have talked moonshots outside of the sales equation and never made any promises on that to the buyer on that level. Or at least never taken their money for it. Then once they were ready, they could sell it as a priced software update. Tesla and Elon could still have done everything else, but just refuse to take any consumer's money for it.

You can combine moonshots and ethical selling. Seriously, you can. Unless you want to use the moonshot as a quarterly demand lever.

 

[banned-66611]

I guess consumer legislation might bind Tesla in some jurisdictions given how liberally Tesla touted the after-purchase price as part of the sale. This might become one of those things (P85D lack of HP, P90DL performance counters/limiters) that are tested and/or settled somewhere.

Around here I'd expect a court to look at any steep increase as being unfair. Accounting for inflation is okay, but jacking it up a lot after purchase would likely be seen as unfairly devaluing the car and withdrawing an offer that was part of the inducement to buy it. If it's a firmware upgrade only it will certainly go that way, if it turns out they need to retrofit €10k of new sensors then they might be able to argue the point.

 

[BestRadar]

I have pretty much given up on FSD. If they cant get the simplest needed feature like automatic windshield wipers working how are they ever going to have FSD when the cameras cant see?.

 

[d21mike]

I have pretty much given up on FSD. If they cant get the simplest needed feature like automatic windshield wipers working how are they ever going to have FSD when the cameras cant see?.

Can someone explain the importance of automatic windshield wipers? Example: Do they "align" with the camera? I.E. Like a machine gun has to align with the propellers in WWI planes? I live in California so I do not use them that much compared to other states. I have been thinking is it that hard to just turn them on? Unless they have something to do with the cameras I am not sure why it is so important to everyone.

 

[BestRadar]

Can someone explain the importance of automatic windshield wipers? Example: Do they "align" with the camera? I.E. Like a machine gun has to align with the propellers in WWI planes? I live in California so I do not use them that much compared to other states. I have been thinking is it that hard to just turn them on? Unless they have something to do with the cameras I am not sure why it is so important to everyone.

Where people get rain, fog, snow, etc. how can a camera see if they are blocked and cant wipe the cameras? What is the car supposed to do if it starts raining while its driving on its own? Pull over to the side of the road and wait for the rain to stop?

 

[d21mike]

Where people get rain, fog, snow, etc. how can a camera see if they are blocked and cant wipe the cameras? What is the car supposed to do if it starts raining while its driving on its own? Pull over to the side of the road and wait for the rain to stop?

I see what you mean. So most/all of the complaints about AP2 and auto wipers is about FSD when there is NO DRIVER in the driver seat. Not the current status that requires a driver and they do not want to manually activate the wipers? I just ask my son if his car has it and he said yes. I ask if he liked it and he said it is nice but he still has to manually override it because it is not perfect. Then I thought if I lost auto head lights I would not like it because is use it daily.

 

[J1mbo]

Can someone explain the importance of automatic windshield wipers? Example: Do they "align" with the camera? I.E. Like a machine gun has to align with the propellers in WWI planes? I live in California so I do not use them that much compared to other states. I have been thinking is it that hard to just turn them on? Unless they have something to do with the cameras I am not sure why it is so important to everyone.

It is literally that the manual effort needed to turn the switch to make them go faster or slower is too much effort for some people.

Plus, it's the only missing "auto" feature when compared to pre-AP and AP1 cars, which makes the effort needed to turn the switch burn so much more.

The good news is that we know from other threads on TMC that Tesla are developing a leading-edge software solution for auto wipers to replace the traditional hit'n'miss (in my exprience) hardware that everyone else uses. They even named the neural net with the word "wiper" so that we could see they were working on it

Where people get rain, fog, snow, etc. how can a camera see if they are blocked and cant wipe the cameras? What is the car supposed to do if it starts raining while its driving on its own? Pull over to the side of the road and wait for the rain to stop?

What is a car to do if the passenger left their door open, or if one of the tyres blows out? What if the headlamps stop working, or a stone chips the glass in front of the camera?

 

[croman]

What if "fisheye_wiper" is just a placeholder name, like the "rear corner radar" field in the car options? Tesla does these placeholder name things all the time and we make hay out of it but its just a string in the code.

 

[Electroman]

Can someone explain the importance of automatic windshield wipers? Example: Do they "align" with the camera? I.E. Like a machine gun has to align with the propellers in WWI planes? I live in California so I do not use them that much compared to other states. I have been thinking is it that hard to just turn them on? Unless they have something to do with the cameras I am not sure why it is so important to everyone.

You don't get it. Life is not worth living if auto wipers don't work.

I might as well die of hunger, starvation and disease than turn that damn thing on when it rains.