FSD video completely fake?

[TrafficEng]

Full Self driving cars are at least 5 to 10 years away due to tight regulatory legislation.
Sorry to burst your bubble folks but by the time FSD becomes legal anywhere, the current fleet of Teslas will be long retired.

There are two separate issues here:
1) FSD or autonomous driving - a year or two away - still has a driver in pilot/copilot arrangement, and maybe save some of the 40,000 lives lost on the road in the USA each year. This is low hanging fruit that is within reach.

2) Driverless cars. This is the pursuit of Uber and Lyft etc., who want to save the cost of the driver. This is many more years away (10?) and only after (1) has been successfully accomplished.

So let's keep this distinction in mind, and not confuse these two very different outcomes.

 

[alloverx]

Of course Uber & Lyft dont have capital outlay now for vehicles, so that will change their business model. Perhaps a Tesla network will have an advantage since they make the vehicle.

 

[schonelucht]

Saw this on reddit. Whether it's worth anything or not, I cannot say.

The full self driving program desperately needs a win and what a win this would be. But I can’t shake this feeling that if it were really this close there is no way Elon would already have thrown in the towel months ago on this.

 

[alloverx]

Maybe the coast to coast drive will be in the new roadster!

 

[andifu]

The post from reddit was deleted. Reason unknown.

Keep in mind the same person claimed the Model 3 would come with a key card instead of a fob.

 

[Tintorera]

For those who did not see the Reddit Post, here is the post in question[Rumor/Speculation: Tesla has completed the Coast to Coast FSD trip with 30 human interventions] Screen capture below

To me 30 disengages on a coast-to-coast drive seems pretty impressive.
As long as we don't know how long the disengages lasts, nor the situations they occur in there is still a lot thats unknown.

Hope they get this win soon.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Legal in Georgia and we are not alone...

Self driving cars in Georgia: Deal signs bill into law

Limited access though.

 

[lunitiks]

Reason unknown.

Tesla S.W.A.T.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

This lends more credit to rumor/belief there are two source code branches. Autopilot and fsd.

 

[boonedocks]

Limited access though.

https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/document/SB219.2017.pdf

I guess IF Tesla chooses they can hide behind anything they want....including being the insurer when the cat is in FSD mode. (For example)

 

[Bladerskb]

For those who did not see the Reddit Post, here is the post in question[Rumor/Speculation: Tesla has completed the Coast to Coast FSD trip with 30 human interventions] Screen capture below

To me 30 disengages on a coast-to-coast drive seems pretty impressive.
As long as we don't know how long the disengages lasts, nor the situations they occur in there is still a lot thats unknown.

Hope they get this win soon.

View attachment 273826

No its not. Its downright embarrassing.. its 1 disengagement per 100 miles and we are talking about freeway miles here which are super easy and uneventful.
That would put you in last place.

as someone said on reddit:

'Never mind that 99% self-driving cross country was done over 20 years ago.
Never mind that it took them hundreds of tries.
Never mind that the route was pre-planned and built for success.
Never mind that 99% of the drive is just lane keeping on an open highway.
Never mind that they might have lead and follow cars to provide a safety buffer.
Never mind that it doesn't prove L5 let alone L4.
Never mind that Elon himself said it doesn't mean much if the route isn't chosen at random on the morning of the drive.'

This post by PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER, sheds light on the entire situation.

I work or worked on Autopilot. Being vague to make it difficult to torch my home.

Intervention is defined as any input from the driver while AP is active. So brakes or steering. Getting out of the car to supercharge does not count. Taking control to drive through a tool booth does not count. Moving aside for emergency vehicles does not count.

Yes 30 inventions is likely correct. However, they explicitly avoid all snow and construction routes. Whether you think that's okay is up to you.

However the part this sub is not going to like, and not believe, is that the non-freeway turns and driving is mostly hard coded with gps and 3d visual markers called landmarks. Additionally, nearly all of the supercharging stops needed freshly painted lane and guide lines to help the NN compute lanes.

Did Tesla do a FSD C2C drive? Maybe. Based on the hype around this sub, many would consider this a success.

I will just say, look at their self driving video from 2016 (Autopilot). Again, it was hard-coded and replayed until zero interventions. Why won't they let a Tesla owner drive that route on AP in Palo Alto in FSD mode? Not even the media?

As someone on reddit said: "Yes, one could argue that those things are not different than the 3D mapping that Waymo and others do, but at least those other companies are being open and honest, while Tesla (Musk basically) is dishonestly selling the idea that their cars don't rely on such things, and are able to apply their driving skills on any road, hence the coast to coast trip, which is supposed to highlight that difference."

Elon is a fraud!

 

[J1mbo]

Lol! Blabbersk, calling fraud based on rumour and speculation just makes you look silly

Anyone got any evidence of all these newly repainted supercharging sites..?

 

[daktari]

Yes, definetly 2 codebases.
1) lane keep assist for EAP
2) "mostly hard coded with gps and 3d visual markers called landmarks. "

 

[gluu]

Bladerskb, you don't know the nature of the interventions. It's unclear if this number is impressive or unimpressive. Remember, driving cross country requires stopping at superchargers.

You yourself said that EAP would not be available without something resembling FSD. If that's the case, then there is a possibility that Tesla can do the entire freeway portion without any interventions, and all the interventions occurred while navigating to superchargers in local streets.

There are a range of scenarios possible:

1. All of the interventions were on freeway driving, and Tesla passed control to the driver for navigating to superchargers and did not count this as an intervention.
2. There were some interventions on freeway driving, and some interventions on surface streets navigating to the superchargers.
3. No interventions on the freeway, and all on surface streets navigating to superchargers.

You are assuming case 1, which is the worst case.

 

[BigD0g]

Bladerskb, you don't know the nature of the interventions. It's unclear if this number is impressive or unimpressive. Remember, driving cross country requires stopping at superchargers.

You yourself said that EAP would not be available without something resembling FSD. If that's the case, then there is a possibility that Tesla can do the entire freeway portion without any interventions, and all the interventions occurred while navigating to superchargers in local streets.

There are a range of scenarios possible:

1. All of the interventions were on freeway driving, and Tesla passed control to the driver for navigating to superchargers and did not count this as an intervention.
2. There were some interventions on freeway driving, and some interventions on surface streets navigating to the superchargers.
3. No interventions on the freeway, and all on surface streets navigating to superchargers.

You are assuming case 1, which is the worst case.

True, but based on the disengagements I have on my lowly commute to work, I believe case 1 to be accurate.

 

[gluu]

True, but based on the disengagements I have on my lowly commute to work, I believe case 1 to be accurate.

I also believe this to be the most likely scenario.

However, I do want to point out that your disengagements using Autopilot may be solved with the version that Tesla is using to do this cross country trip. It is likely what Mobileye calls ADAS L2+, which is basically Autopilot + HD Mapping. That would likely dramatically drop the number of disengagements.

 

[Swift]

You are assuming case 1, which is the worst case

I’m confident that most people here sincerely do not want to assume the worst case, me included. However, it’s hard to do otherwise given Telsa’s track record and lack of communication. I’m a pretty laid back and understanding guy who believes in the cause, but I have to agree that Tesla’s behavior during and since the purchase of my car in late 2016 has been misleading at best and fraudulent at worst, especially as it relates to EAP and FSD.

So it’s kind of hard to give them the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[gluu]

Another point I don't quite understand is that PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER says

"However the part this sub is not going to like, and not believe, is that the non-freeway turns and driving is mostly hard coded with gps and 3d visual markers called landmarks"

But I don't really see how this is different from using HD Maps for localization and driving? It's not like they would just turn perception off.

 

[mongo]

Bladerskb, you don't know the nature of the interventions. It's unclear if this number is impressive or unimpressive. Remember, driving cross country requires stopping at superchargers.

You yourself said that EAP would not be available without something resembling FSD. If that's the case, then there is a possibility that Tesla can do the entire freeway portion without any interventions, and all the interventions occurred while navigating to superchargers in local streets.

There are a range of scenarios possible:

1. All of the interventions were on freeway driving, and Tesla passed control to the driver for navigating to superchargers and did not count this as an intervention.
2. There were some interventions on freeway driving, and some interventions on surface streets navigating to the superchargers.
3. No interventions on the freeway, and all on surface streets navigating to superchargers.

You are assuming case 1, which is the worst case.

4. Interventions due to external influences.
4a. Potholes/ roadkill/ tire irons and other things that vision/ radar would not swerve for (if it is allowed to swerve), but you wouldn't want to run over.
4b. Other drivers changing lanes into you.
4c. Leading vehicle with unsafe load.

 

[gluu]

4. Interventions due to external influences.
4a. Potholes/ roadkill/ tire irons and other things that vision/ radar would not swerve for (if it is allowed to swerve), but you wouldn't want to run over.
4b. Other drivers changing lanes into you.
4c. Leading vehicle with unsafe load.

Very possible there are many corner cases they are currently failing, but I would tend to put all these variations under scenario 1.