General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - this evening:
Chicago taps Elon Musk’s Boring Company to build high-speed transit tunnels that would tie Loop with O'Hare

“We’re taking a bet on a guy who doesn’t like to fail — and his resources. There are a bunch of Teslas on the road. He put SpaceX together. He’s proven something,” Emanuel said of Musk. “The risk — with no financial risk — is I’m betting on a guy who has proven in space, auto and now a tunnel, that he can innovate and create something of the future. Given his track record, we are taking his reputation and saying, ‘This is a guy in two other transportation modes who has not failed.’ That’s what we’re doing.”

 

[keydiver]

Chanos on Musk: He's making cars at not enough gross margin

Thank you for the link. Just as I figured: new day, same FUD. The thing that irritated/made me laugh the most was his final statement to the effect "and just wait until all the competition comes at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019."
It is so strange that none of these guys see the same thing we do, that other manufacturers might show a prototype EV, pull some not-so-distant date out of their arse so they still look relevant, and then just keep pushing their EV launch dates out further and further. I have yet to see any prototype that looks even close to being competition for the Model 3. But, people like Chanos keep acting like "an EV is an EV", like a Leaf or Kona will take away a Model 3 sale. That may have been true in the past, when you had to wait 2+ years for a Model 3, but not in 2019 when they are rolling off the assembly line at 5,000 to 10,000 a week.

 

[Sancho]

Chicago Tribune - this evening:

“We’re taking a bet on a guy who doesn’t like to fail — and his resources. There are a bunch of Teslas on the road. He put SpaceX together. He’s proven something,” Emanuel said of Musk. “The risk — with no financial risk — is I’m betting on a guy who has proven in space, auto and now a tunnel, that he can innovate and create something of the future. Given his track record, we are taking his reputation and saying, ‘This is a guy in two other transportation modes who has not failed.’ That’s what we’re doing.”

For years there has been a tug of war between those who consider Elon a fraud, and people like us on this forum who see him as a serially successful innovator. Both sides can be ever more dismissive of each other. But this win by Boring in Chicago is gigantic. It makes a complete mockery of the fraud viewpoint. One of the most high profile transportation projects in the nation has been won by a Musk startup with revolutionary technology he has only recently pioneered.

Elon Musk is the Master of Transformation. To not bet on this man is to miss the opportunity of our lifetime. That’s not coming from a fanboy, but from the nation’s third largest city, in a very bold choice.

 

[RobStark]

When thousands of people are shuttling every day between downtown Chicago and O'Hare there will be a dozen blogs everyday on seeking alpha about how the tunnels are Potemkin village.

 

[pz1975]

When thousands of people are shuttling every day between downtown Chicago and O'Hare there will be a dozen blogs everyday on seeking alpha about how the tunnels are Potemkin village.

And when someone twists their ankle stepping off one of the transport pods, it will be sensationalized front page news.

 

[hobbes]

Benchmark predicts Tesla will not be able to further reduce the use of cobalt in its NCA technology.

That´s obvious. Because below 3% cobalt, the batteries honestly can´t be called nCa any more .

 

[wsucougz]

"Gigglefactory" 2

When thousands of people are shuttling every day between downtown Chicago and O'Hare there will be a dozen blogs everyday on seeking alpha about how the tunnels are Potemkin village.

 

[WarpedOne]

>> That´s obvious. Because below 3% cobalt, the batteries honestly can´t be called nCa any more.

Why not?

NoCobaltAluminum

 

[avoigt]

News about Daimlers EQ

• Up to 400 km Range
• 272 PS, 0-60 in 5 sec
• Front and heck Motor
• Produced in Hambach, France
• € 500 Mio investment
• Forst deliveries End of 2019
• Size of A-Class

https://www.nzz.ch/mobilitaet/auto-...hraufnahmen-des-tesla-konkurrenten-ld.1394297

Conclusion: we see that all other manufacturers so far go for a good range with fast acceleration and good design but they don't give crucial information around charging speed, margin, infrastructure, drive assistant systems. planned production #, sale price and other.

Also I do not see a single spec where they beat Teslas cars or develop a real competitive edge.

Needless to say that I am happy that they move in the right direction now but its not enough I am afraid in order to catch up.

Yesterday I was at a conference someone presented quote: " if you as a company grow 20-30% but your competition 50% than its just a question of time until you are dead".

Translated to EVs that means its not enough to showcase a car with decent specifications if you do not want to loose market share or go out of business on the long run.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Conclusion: we see that all other manufacturers so far go for a good range with fast acceleration and good design but they don't give crucial information around charging speed, margin, infrastructure, drive assistant systems. planned production #, sale price and other.

Regarding this, I was wondering how many Jaguar I-Pace are planned... It seems a decent EV SUV and a possible competitor (competitor; not killer) of Model X, and I hope they will sell a few (a few; not too many ;-).
But I don't have a clue about how many there will be on the street, what's their production capacity.

 

[SPadival]

News about Daimlers EQ

• Up to 400 km Range
• 272 PS, 0-60 in 5 sec
• Front and heck Motor
• Produced in Hambach, France
• € 500 Mio investment
• Forst deliveries End of 2019
• Size of A-Class

Only slightly better than when they were sourcing EV batteries and motors from Tesla. I don't know why do they even bother. I hope Tesla returns the favour and takes over Daimler in the future. Germany is a good location for GF EU.

 

[SPadival]

Has this been posted before?

https://www.inverse.com/article/44778-tesla-solar-roof-8-things-to-know

 

[Boomer19]

Amazing how rational people believe themselves to be, with no amount of evidence possible to open their eyes. The constant confusion of opinion and facts in this world amaze me. Too little humility in the face of rapid change. This guy really is a great proxy for shorts, who can’t alter their beliefs and are left with angry and increasingly opinionated outbursts.

Maybe guys named Marc/k just hate Elon?

marc(k)

If Tesla delivers on the Model 3 ramp and profitability, and I think it will, there is a good chance that the market will finally wake up and take notice that the stationary battery business is an equally enormous opportunity, and Tesla is again the industry leader.

No one seems to remember that at the 2016 annual shareholder meeting Elon said that he thought in the long run Tesla's stationary battery business could generate similar revenue as the EV business. Tesla could triple the planned battery output of ‘Gigafactory 1’ to 150 GWh, says Elon Musk

And in this years shareholder meeting he confirmed storage margins are expected to be in the same range as EV margins.

yes he also said something like 2019 will be more than total output from start to end of 2018, and 2020 projects will be double 2019?? i forget the exact wording he used, but i’m sure some here remember. and he mentioned specifically that the point in PR was not to end up back with fossil fuel plants, so if they successfully transition most of the island and use that as a bigger model for what they’ve done in hawaii, or even the house sharing network in australia, maybe people will start to realize it’s viable and not some novelty.

 

[EinSV]

marc(k)

yes he also said something like 2019 will be more than total output from start to end of 2018, and 2020 projects will be double 2019?? i forget the exact wording he used, but i’m sure some here remember. and he mentioned specifically that the point in PR was not to end up back with fossil fuel plants, so if they successfully transition most of the island and use that as a bigger model for what they’ve done in hawaii, or even the house sharing network in australia, maybe people will start to realize it’s viable and not some novelty.

Yes -- storage growth should be crazy fast. He said that for the next five years, each year Tesla will produce more storage than every year before that combined, which works out to almost doubling each year for the next five years. Given the demand and the compelling economics, IMO it could easily be much more than that.

 

[Boomer19]

marc(k)

i meant to say those named marc/k or gordon lol

gordon johnson of vertical group lowered price target 99-93 tipranks shows him with a 52% success rate and avg return of -.3%
not as bad as some others, but surely not the best. he’s 3,659 out of 4,829 analysts
and 8,331 out of 11,373 overall experts
thanks gordon, but we’ll take our chances

 

[Boomer19]

Yes -- storage growth should be crazy fast. He said that for the next five years, each year we will produce more storage than every year before that combined, which works out to almost doubling each year for the next five years. Given the demand and the compelling economics, IMO it could easily be much more than that.

thanks!

 

[kbM3]

For years there has been a tug of war between those who consider Elon a fraud, and people like us on this forum who see him as a serially successful innovator. Both sides can be ever more dismissive of each other. But this win by Boring in Chicago is gigantic. It makes a complete mockery of the fraud viewpoint. One of the most high profile transportation projects in the nation has been won by a Musk startup with revolutionary technology he has only recently pioneered.

Elon Musk is the Master of Transformation. To not bet on this man is to miss the opportunity of our lifetime. That’s not coming from a fanboy, but from the nation’s third largest city, in a very bold choice.

An IPO for Boring Co. is one of the few things that could convince me to sell TSLA. Though I would assume that Elon would rather not take it public if at all possible.

 

[RubberToe]

And when someone twists their ankle stepping off one of the transport pods, it will be sensationalized front page news.

Mind The Gap !

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Elon has stated many times that he wished he had never taken Tesla public, too much hand holding and dealing with the second guessing?

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Elon has stated many times that he wished he had never taken Tesla public, too much hand holding and dealing with the second guessing?

There is a reason why you should NEVER,,,, listen to those arm chair coaches. they have an awful time just meeting their own deadlines.