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Gigafactory 3 developments
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dhanson865
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If you are using that term the way it's traditionally used I hoped they did a 1,000 year floodplain assessment.
The last 100 years aren't that great of an indicator of future flooding in a rising sea level situation.
I read in the South China Morning Post earlier this month that Tesla has opened its bidding for construction contracts for the GF3 - citing Reuters (where I've not seen this), it claims that both the state-controlled Shanghai Construction Group and Shanghai Baoye Group, part of China Minmetals are, inter alia, taking part.
From the article, Minmetals's website states:
A further tidbit mentioned is that Shanghai Mayor Ying stated that production "to some degree" would start in the second half of 2019.
Until one of our China posters is able to refer a better source, I strongly suggest anyone who is trying to stay abreast of GF3 information keep searching the SCMP, although it lamentably lost its independence from the government some time back.
Link to this article: Hit by trade war, Tesla opens bid process to build China Gigafactory
From the article, Minmetals's website states:
.
A further tidbit mentioned is that Shanghai Mayor Ying stated that production "to some degree" would start in the second half of 2019.
Until one of our China posters is able to refer a better source, I strongly suggest anyone who is trying to stay abreast of GF3 information keep searching the SCMP, although it lamentably lost its independence from the government some time back.
Link to this article: Hit by trade war, Tesla opens bid process to build China Gigafactory
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And why do you think they don't plan to make cells? They've said they plan to source them from multiple sources, but that doesn't mean they can't have those various suppliers on-site just like they do with Panasonic at GF1. It might not happen immediately (likely starting with a GA line), but to assume it is not part of the plan eventually goes against the stated design goals of all future Gigafactories.
Also, I don't know why you think building a "tent" (sprung structure) is so hard. Just have to do the proper (literal) groundwork to put in a suitable slab or similar base on which to build it, which would happen anyway no matter what sort of building they plan on erecting.
Tam
Well-Known Member
That depends how tariffs are structured.
It's true that 100% parts can be sourced from outside China then the final product a Made-in-China Tesla is tariffs free.
However, if automotive parts are subject to tariffs then although the final product Made-in-China Tesla is not subjected to additional tariffs but in reality, those 100% parts have already paid automotive tariffs so the end prices are exactly the same as if it's made outside of China.
As long as China government is cooperative (and not jailing foreigners like the most recent 2 Canadians) there should not be any problem in getting all parts made in China from scratch.
China has a vast human workforce and they are flexible to accommodate factory goals.
Regarding bolded section: I think it depends of the tariff rates, manufacturing cost differences, profit...
Imported parts:
10k worth of parts + 25% tariff = 12,500 + 10k fixed/variable costs = $22,500 + 7,500 margin = $30,000 sales price
Imported car:
10k worth of parts + 10 k costs + 7,500 margin = $27,500 + 25% tariff = $34,375 sales price
So, in this case, either the car sells at higher price, or you make less profit.
I also thought that tent could be a solution but not anymore. One of the biggest reason is the weather. It rains a lot, it is very humid, and temperatures vary greatly.
Currently it is a ‘dry’ season and look how saturated the ground is.
Tesla has about four months to install drainage, reinforce ground and pour slab before rain starts. According to annual stats it rains every second day in the summer.
Some of the ariel shots are reminiscent of water logged paddy fields. i am guessing they will hit the water table in as near as 20 feet, making it difficult to have a deep foundation for a 3 storied building. But then again, the Chinese have done miracles in civil engineering.
Pilings my friend, pilings. Lets you build in the mud of Louisiana, or in the reclaimed soil of China.
(Someone posted an article saying Tesla was having a bunch installed)
Can also go post tensioner reinforced concrete waffle slab, self supporting.
Hard spot will be the footing for the press. May need the conveyors to adjust for sinkage...
Its' reclaimed land. So it's sandy fill. (Watermelons grow best in sandy soil).
Water table is sea level (because its oceanfront sandy reclaimed land). The photo was probably soon after a good rain.
Obviously Tesla is dealing with all the potential problems brought up in this thread. Even if Tesla was stupid the bank wouldn't finance the structure without proper engineering for its location.
Water table is sea level (because its oceanfront sandy reclaimed land). The photo was probably soon after a good rain.
Obviously Tesla is dealing with all the potential problems brought up in this thread. Even if Tesla was stupid the bank wouldn't finance the structure without proper engineering for its location.
If Schiphol Airport could build runways strong enough to land 747s all day and night - as they do - atop reclaimed land, popping a press on the Shanghai region land will be a walk in the park.
True story: my sister worked for the gemeente Haarlemermeer when that township was hosting the construction of Schiphol's newest runway. She took me to the worksite and noted
"The Dutch and Spanish fought a fierce battle right here."
"Where?"
"Right...here", she said, pointing five meters up in the air.
That's how much sea covered the area in 1573. The fierce battle was a naval battle. "Schiphol", by the way, means "ship hole", in reference to how many craft perished in the one-time sea.
True story: my sister worked for the gemeente Haarlemermeer when that township was hosting the construction of Schiphol's newest runway. She took me to the worksite and noted
"The Dutch and Spanish fought a fierce battle right here."
"Where?"
"Right...here", she said, pointing five meters up in the air.
That's how much sea covered the area in 1573. The fierce battle was a naval battle. "Schiphol", by the way, means "ship hole", in reference to how many craft perished in the one-time sea.
Large structures on wet ground is a solved problem. Doing it with only a few months time is harder, of course, but it isn't a show stopper.
Also, the weather has no effect on the sprung structures being useful - they are useful in all climates. They can be used in climates from blizzards to deserts. They're not tents. Granted, they must be built to the needs of the environment / application, but apparently the design can be customized for the customer and delivered in weeks. Have a look at Portable Buildings, Tension Fabric Buildings - Sprung Structures
They're good enough for NASA : NASA Orbiter Protection Enclosure - Sprung Structures
Interesting that it is at -11 feet MSL. Although one of the other options might be more correct for its name as they didn't find any wrecks there when they drained it per Wikipedia.Amsterdam Airport Schiphol - Wikipedia
As to the comparison of runway to press, I don't doubt their ability to do it, however a large massive, dense object is different than a wide generally low density with occasional higher point loads structure (many more piles needed, or else compensation for compression/ sinkage)
Concider Kansai Airport in Japan, the runways are on the land, but the building is on supports that are regularly shimmied to keep the airport at 'ground' level as the footings sink.
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Note that China Daily claims the plant will initially be CKD...
Tesla's $7b Shanghai plant shifts into high gear - Chinadaily.com.cn
SCMP, as AudubonB states in his mild-mannered but authoritative way, is no longer 'independent. Even less so is China Daily, a semi-official organ. Still it is notable that this article explicitly states that initial production will be CKD.
It is also important to note that the Tesla site appears to NOT be part of the adjacent duty-free areas, so production is likely to be without incremental taxes. There is no explicit information thus far (AFAIK) about precisely how imported parts will be treated, nor what transitional rules might be applicable to this facility. Based only on the obvious and indisputable enthusiasm of both Shanghai and the central government for "high technology" in general and Tesla specifically it is notable that:
The upcoming policies will also include tax exemptions for small and medium-sized companies and high-tech enterprises, according to the official.
More major tax cuts are on the horizon - Chinadaily.com.cn
again from China Daily, unspecified tax incentives for "..The upcoming policies will also include tax exemptions for small and medium-sized companies and high-tech enterprises, according to the official."
It must be noted that these steps are independent of the US Government issues. Further, every indication is that Tesla is being treated quite distinctly from other US companies. Why? Gentlepeople, the answer to that is transparently obvious. (OK, maybe this is in the category of 'often wrong but never in doubt' but fifty years of Chinese business dealings convinces me this is very different than anything else precisely because Tesla patents are open-source already and Tesla has always been prepared to help others even though they've often been spurned. So, be prepared for Tesla to be given some attractive tariff and other concessions even for the CKD stage.
I will happily wager that the Tesla CKD facility will be >200,000 per annum by year end 2019, and that the paint shop, presses and other major facilities, including a huge battery factory, will come in short order. My personal view is that the battery facility is most likely to be a Panasonic JV but there is still strong possibility of Chinese partners. If the latter, they'll be most likely to build on the existing Panasonic base in Dalian. Nobody has talked too much about the battery side but I'm quite certain that will be bigger news than the auto assembly side. The next issues will relate to BMS, motors and electronics. Those will be major news, but probably ignored by major news outlets.
Already the Jaguar I-Pace uses quite a number of Tesla patents, especially in motors, I'm reliably informed. In that case, as in others, the patents help, but they really are not the entire 'secret sauce'. With active support of Tesla advances will happen more quickly in China than they may have in less adaptable places.
In sum, please ignore what we think we might know about the negative effects of US trade policy and look instead to how the trend is developing for Tesla. Monthly or quarterly price fluctuations are really not the story for TSLA. Those are most likely intended as messages to the Trump administration about unintended consequences. On that front BMW, Daimler-Benz, VAG and GM moving more production to China for SUV's and BEV's all fit neatly together. Tesla is the prize catch among them.
note: I am obviously biased because I first visited China in 1968 (scary), and first did formal business there in 1978 (possibly the most interesting business trip of my life) and have done business there ever since. I do not pretend to understand China nor Chinese Central government, much less Shanghai Municipal government. I have enough hubris to think I understand better than most alleged experts. If you choose to credit my thoughts, do so at your own peril. I have wagered almost my entire net worth on these views. Thus, I devoutly hope I'm correct.
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Well, it looks like China is more interested in Tesla getting started.
Gigafactory 3: How China is helping and pushing Tesla at the same time
They are doing everything they can to make Tesla start production in 2019. It will be tough because we only have 12 months left. But my guess is Tesla will be trying to repeat what it learned from GA3 and GA4 and get at least one assembly line ready.
Does anyone have an idea about what the tariff will be if Tesla assembles Model 3 in China?
They can also export batteries from Giga1 and just build the car there. There are indeed some options at hand to start production by the second half of 2019. But it will entirely depend on how much impact it has on duty.
Gigafactory 3: How China is helping and pushing Tesla at the same time
They are doing everything they can to make Tesla start production in 2019. It will be tough because we only have 12 months left. But my guess is Tesla will be trying to repeat what it learned from GA3 and GA4 and get at least one assembly line ready.
Does anyone have an idea about what the tariff will be if Tesla assembles Model 3 in China?
They can also export batteries from Giga1 and just build the car there. There are indeed some options at hand to start production by the second half of 2019. But it will entirely depend on how much impact it has on duty.
Thanks, Shankar, for that article which summarizes disparate sources in an insightful way.
Tesla probably will not be subject to tariffs on completed vehicles because the factory seems not to be in the duty-free area. They will be subject to duties on imported parts but it appears that they may be significant exemptions while Tesla is transitioning from CKD to complete manufacturing. We may be assured that all of these arrangements might not be quite so transparently obvious as they might be in some other locations.
FWIW, it seems from some credible reports that Tesla production has risen well above previous levels, even though VIN assignments don't necessarily reflect these levels. That might be explained by large production levels being in support of CKD operations for Europe. If Shanghai municipal officials are correct, production to support Shanghai rampup itself will probably need to begin around 2Q 2019. Remember that CKD operations in Sprung (or other brand) structures can be established in a matter of weeks. Given the obvious speed of ground preparation and the convenient dockside location we can expect vehicles rolling out early in the 3rd quarter next year. That is not at all impossible. Back in the 1970's CKD operations were established for GM Iran in less than a year. Tesla has already done this in Holland, and more recently in Fremont for the addition line 4 of Model 3. Don't be surprised with the speed of this one.
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China will likely to continue to support Tesla because China wants to become an exporter of EV. This is why they allowed TEsla into China without a local partner. China doesn't want their companies to be restricted when operating outside of their home market.
But it's easy to forget that China has almost no major brands sold in the developed world. It going to be interesting how China navigates their branding. The ability to make complex stuff is ubiquitous in the modern world. Making the right stuff and branding it successfully is uncommon and not not an area where China has experience.
But it's easy to forget that China has almost no major brands sold in the developed world. It going to be interesting how China navigates their branding. The ability to make complex stuff is ubiquitous in the modern world. Making the right stuff and branding it successfully is uncommon and not not an area where China has experience.
We don't know how deep bedrock is -- at least I don't. This is a river delta, but I don't know whether it's Louisiana (you'll never get to bedrock) or more like New York (bedrock is very close to the riverbed, only a few feet)
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