Is buying a Model S still worth it?

[RogerHScott]

I know your trying to protect your invest\[ment\]

Nope, I have no intention of selling mine.

most people purchased the model S because

On what basis do you make claims about the motivations of "most people"? Anything more than a hunch or wild guess?

In 2018 there will be 2 decent EV' s

More accurately, there will be 1.1 decent EVs: MSs and a tiny trickle of M3s. In '18 the M3 supply won't even be enough to
keep up with the demand just from MS owners wanting a second Tesla (i.e., the ones at the head of the queue for M3s).

400000 people will get one

In 2018? Keep dreaming.

The model S will be doomed

You think Tesla is that stupid to allow that to happen? I'm pretty sure Elon is well aware of the Osborne Syndrome.

It's only saving graze

I have no intention of putting my car out to pasture!

 

[AUSinator]

Th

Nope, I have no intention of selling mine.


On what basis do you make claims about the motivations of "most people"? Anything more than a hunch or wild guess?


More accurately, there will be 1.1 decent EVs: MSs and a tiny trickle of M3s. In '18 the M3 supply won't even be enough to
keep up with the demand just from MS owners wanting a second Tesla (i.e., the ones at the head of the queue for M3s).


In 2018? Keep dreaming.


You think Tesla is that stupid to allow that to happen? I'm pretty sure Elon is well aware of the Osborne Syndrome.


I have no intention of putting my car out to pasture!

you are misleading my comments by not rephrasing the whole sentence. Very dishonest! by the way the only tickle will be the model s sales in comparison to model 3 sales in 2018. Elon goal is 500000 cars for 2018 if he achieves that it would be most likely 400000 m3's. Also only 6-7% of all m3 reservations are ms and mx owners the rest are all new to tesla so again your wrong. Specially the Chinese and Europe markets most people don't like large cars. In the US a lot more people like large cars but even there most people will just prefer a m3 like they prefer the BMW 3 series or c class or a4 compared to the large 7 series or s class or a8. Regarding luxury level and quality the model s is not on the same level as the s class so that makes me think how much more luxuries will it be than the model 3. Also performance and drive train it's not going to be much better than the m3 as it's the same and base model is under 6secs. Not much going for the ms compared the the m3. Your also wrong when you say there will only be 1.1 decent EV's. Are you referring to the model 3 as a 0.1. I don't think so buddy. There will be at least 3 great EV's in 2018 the m3 and the ms and the mx. If everything goes to plan tesla will deliver maybe 10 times more m3 compared to ms in 2018. So 0.1 my assss.

 

[RogerHScott]

you are misleading my comments by not rephrasing the whole sentence. Very dishonest!

Cite a single example where the words I left out change the meaning of the words I quoted. Dishonest? Your post is immediately above mine, so anyone who wants to see the full text can easily do so (there's even a link).

You're welcome to believe Elon's goals will be reality, but that would not be consistent with Tesla's history thus far. Sure, things can
change, but there's no concrete reason to believe they will.

6% of 400,000 is 24,000. You really believe Tesla is going to produce significantly more M3s than that in '18? That'd be great if it
happened, but it doesn't seem likely, again, considering their track record.

Again, you're welcome to believe that Tesla will allow the M3 to cannibalize their MS market. Personally, I think they're a bit smarter than
that.

What I meant by 1.1 EVs is not that the M3 is in any sense only .1 of a car, but that the volume of production in '18 will be so small
that they will not change the marketplace very much. Later, one production really ramps up, things may be quite different, but we're
talking about issues that affect MS resale values in the next 2-3 years. Oh, and I'm lumping the MS and the MX together because
they're priced similarly, although they may target different markets. To be clear, I'm not in any way denigrating the M3 or trying to
downplay its long term significance.

If everything goes to plan

That's a huge "if". I agree if they pull it off then things may play out differently than I'm predicting.

 

[xav-]

I am sceptical too with production estimates. I would expect a delay of at least 6 month. Even if the delay turned out to be one year that would still be amazing from where tesla is today.

I still wish Elon would do a little bit more to prop up the S over the 3. Basically the only mention I recollect from the M3 event is Elon thanking MS buyers for subsidizing the 3

A week ago he was talking about the autopilot of the 3, saying "we re going to do the obvious thing", that it would be great etc. Well at least that would be great if he could confirm that any potential hardware upgrade would be backward compatible with the S.

 

[Beryl]

A week ago he was talking about the autopilot of the 3, saying "we re going to do the obvious thing", that it would be great etc. Well at least that would be great if he could confirm that any potential hardware upgrade would be backward compatible with the S.

That would go a long way to sell more of the Models S and X.

I have a Model 3 reservation but it is highly likely that I will cancel it or buy the vehicle and sell it to a relative. Although the size of the Model 3 is great for daily driving but the long distance experience with the Model S (probably more so with the Model X) is something I wouldn't want to lose. I'm quite spoiled by the hatchback and storage capacity.

For this reason, albeit anecdotal, I think those who predict that the current models will lose value due to the Model 3 will be proven wrong. I do believe these models will have additional luxury features in 2018 that are not there today.

 

[buckerine]

For this reason, albeit anecdotal, I think those who predict that the current models will lose value due to the Model 3 will be proven wrong. I do believe these models will have additional luxury features in 2018 that are not there today.

I agree. Here's another way to think about it: how is Tesla able to sell the Model 3 at a starting price of $35k? Big reason is reducing the cost of the battery. Those cost reductions will apply across the board to all Teslas. So the Model S that's selling for $90k now will still sell for $90k when the Model 3 is here. One would think that Tesla would then use some of that cost reduction to further differentiate the S/X from the 3 through luxury features that the 3 wouldn't have.

 

[wdolson]

Ok if that's the case then xav is right the model s will tank in value, however 50% in 3 years is conservative. The depreciation will be %60 of its new price. Because that's how much BMW 7 series depreciates. When you compare the 3 series to the 7 series the 3 series has much better resale value. However you cannot compare the BMW 7 series to the model s because the model S is much better looking, more desirable, don't look like a rich old guy driving one, 8 years warranty on the important staff, has a superior drive train and is the best EV in the world. So yes it will have better resale value than the 7 series. But the model 3 will hurt the model S resale value big time that I know for sure. 2-3 years from now Model s owners will not enjoy the same resale value like today.

I'm not completely sure what will happen to the Model S when the Model 3 comes out. I don't think comparisons to high end BMW or Mercedes are a very good indicator. The Model S is in the same price range as the top tier BMWs and Mercedes, but the people who buy Model S only partially overlap those brands. Surveys of Model S buyers have found that over 50% of buyers have never owned a car worth more than $60K. A lot of Model S owners would never consider a BMW or Mercedes. I wouldn't.

The premium BMWs and Mercedes have two things stacked against them as used cars. First they are very expensive to repair and secondly there can be a huge snob factor to owning one. The snob cache fades if your car is older than about 3 years old.

To keep the used Model S market alive Tesla would have to make spare parts more affordable, which I'm not sure they will do. While there is some snob factor to the Model S, there are also a tremendous number of people who have bought one simply because they like the car and didn't buy it to be seen. The Model S is the best selling electric car in the west and possibly in the world (I don't know specifics on the Chinese market, but forces there are different from the west) despite it being a very expensive car. The range is a big driver of this, but it also looks a lot like other contemporary ICE sedans. Many times I've caught glimpses of a car thinking it may be an S only to discover it's a Hyundai, or some other modern sedan (the door handles and antennas are usually the give away). The way the S blends in is a big plus to people who don't want to scream to the world what they are driving.

So I don't think used Ss are going to suffer from the snob factor other high end luxury sedans suffer from. However, it's going to be difficult to continue to justify the high price of the S when the 3 is so much cheaper. Even if some features are reserved for the S and X only, a much longer range battery is the only feature that will likely drive sales of the higher end cars and it will likely be a limiting factor. The S/X 75 may see sales tank entirely.

It's estimated that making batteries at the Gigafactory will lower costs immediately by about 30% per KWh. Tesla also has a 20-25% markup on the S and X. If they passed on the saving from the new battery manufacturing and lowered their margin after the 3 was established to say 10%, they could cut close to $20K from the price of the car. That would put the 90D (probably 100D by then) on par with high end Cadillac and Lincolns as opposed to more expensive European luxury cars. It would expand the base who could afford the S/X and may keep the cars viable. However, it would hurt resale values for older S/Xs.

Ultimately I don't know how it will go.

 

[mshuang]

However, it's going to be difficult to continue to justify the high price of the S when the 3 is so much cheaper. Even if some features are reserved for the S and X only, a much longer range battery is the only feature that will likely drive sales of the higher end cars and it will likely be a limiting factor. The S/X 75 may see sales tank entirely.

With the new version of the S/60, it now has less than the advertised range of Model 3. I think range only matters on long distance drives -- for day to day commuters, most people do not have a 200 mile round trip commute, and I don't really think people understand that when you wake up in the morning after plugging it in when you get home from work you've got a full battery ready to go.

It's estimated that making batteries at the Gigafactory will lower costs immediately by about 30% per KWh. Tesla also has a 20-25% markup on the S and X. If they passed on the saving from the new battery manufacturing and lowered their margin after the 3 was established to say 10%, they could cut close to $20K from the price of the car. That would put the 90D (probably 100D by then) on par with high end Cadillac and Lincolns as opposed to more expensive European luxury cars. It would expand the base who could afford the S/X and may keep the cars viable. However, it would hurt resale values for older S/Xs.

Ultimately I don't know how it will go.

Some places have surmised that the cost of the batteries has already dropped, and that Tesla is making a healthy profit on the batteries. If they weren't, I doubt they'd bother with the software unlocks for longer range.

I think in making the new 60 (and having the price come down), Tesla has now made it so that in the EV market you have:

66,000 base price Model S 60 (208 mile range)
43,395 MSRP for a no optioned BMW i3 (81 mile range) (21.8 kWh battery)
37,500 MSRP Chevy Bolt (200 mile range)
35,000 base price Model 3 (215 mile range)
29,010 MSRP Nissan Leaf (84 mile range, 24 kWh battery)

Given that both the Bolt and the Model 3 are not yet available, I think it when it does come out, it sets the floor for the resale of a base Model S to be equal to about 33-35k (which is about what Tesla would buy it back for). Keep in mind, that it will take at least a year to fulfill all the preorders for the Model 3, and that the other EVs are not built in great numbers.

 

[RogerHScott]

it will take at least a year to fulfill all the preorders for the Model 3

~400,000 in the first year? That's very optimistic. I know you said "at least", but 400,000 is assuming no more preorders between now and when they start shipping -- how likely is that?

 

[mshuang]

~400,000 in the first year? That's very optimistic. I know you said "at least", but 400,000 is assuming no more preorders between now and when they start shipping -- how likely is that?

Not very likely, but I suspect that people will start flipping the Model 3 as soon as they're confirmed for the configure and build process.

I strongly believe that the preorder number will do nothing but decrease from here -- that 400,000 are people who have put in deposits -- end of 2017 (or 2018 or 2019) is a long time to wait for a car. I think we can expect realistically some major attrition in that number.

The reason I think 33-35k is going to be the floor for a barebones and low-end used Model S is once the Model 3 is available, The Model S will have been in production for 5 or more years, and have around a total 300,000 produced (currently, the combined deliveries of Model S/X is about 15,000 a quarter -- that's only about 60,000 vehicles a year). Sure, there's about 3 month wait to get your car delivered, but my guess is that they'll continue to build the Model S just long enough to get the factory pumping out deliveries of the Model 3.

If you think about Model X sales to Model S sales since the debut of the X, the S has outsold the X 6:1. There's only a slight difference of around 5k between the X and the S. If we look at Model X -- people waited years for the X, and Tesla ended up delivering all the reservation holders who kept their preorders (2600) within 6 months. For the X, they ended up making just 20 vehicles a day for 6 months to meet the preorders.

The Model 3 is 30k less than the Model S -- and has a preorder/reserved number greater than the numbers of Model S.

If you are a buyer with 70k -- would you rather wait and buy 2 Model 3 70s or have a new 2017/18/19/20 Model S 75/85/95/whatever today?

If you are a buyer with 35k -- would you rather buy a new Model 3 70 or a late 2014/2015 Model S 70 with Autopilot?

Because the Model 3 has such a good range at such a reasonable price, Tesla has essentially created a EV equivalent of a Toyota Camry, Tesla will be selling them as fast as they can make them.

I do believe the Model 3 will cannibalize sales of the Model S, as the Model 3 is 90-100+ % of the car of the Model S for 50% of the price.

Those older pre-autopilot cars will not hold their current value, and I suspect will drop below 33k upon release of the Model 3.

 

[buckerine]

I do believe the Model 3 will cannibalize sales of the Model S, as the Model 3 is 90-100+ % of the car of the Model S for 50% of the price.

Those older pre-autopilot cars will not hold their current value, and I suspect will drop below 33k upon release of the Model 3.

The Model 3 will undoubtedly cannibalize sales. That's what happens when lower cost versions of a similar thing are released. But that's fine from Tesla's point of view. Mass production of the Model 3 was always the primary goal from the beginning, they just had to find a way to get there, and that was the S and X.

Having said that, it's also reasonable to think that lowered production costs overall enables Tesla to make the S more premium than it feels. In the same way that a Merc S-class is way more luxurious than a CLA, the Model S will have a host of features unavailable in the Model 3. The latter will be the everyman's Tesla and the former will be for those with the means. As far as the value of used Teslas go, it does mean they'll take a hit. But the same thing happens with any luxury automobile when a redesign is released.

 

[xav-]

Thoughts on the new 60?

My thoughts:
- $5,000 savings is great but I am not sure losing 10 KW of battery is worth it
- 210 mile EPA range now less than the 3. Back to my original question what will this do to resale values?
- 210 mile EPA range in my mind now means under 200 mile real world range
- $9,000 for 75 kW battery upgrade sounds too expensive. I am not sure I would be willing to spend that much, especially once the 3 comes out.
- overall this sounds great for tesla. Battery will last longer, then they will make a killing buying my used 60 as used 60 price then spend $0 on the software update, $5 changing the badge and selling my car as a 75. Awesome for tesla but for us?
- real open question will supercharging the car be the same as supercharging a 70kw car? by that I mean is battery percentage based on 75kw or 60kw?

Overall the benefits to tesla seem to significantly outweigh the benefits to the buyers.

 

[e-FTW]

Hey xav-, I think I would totally go for it now. This price point is fantastic, and you get an awesome car out of it. But as I've mentioned before, I would definitely lease.
If you look at how much the 75 option was over a 70, the price has not changed. I agree it is a big chunk of change from a 60 though.
And if the current assumptions (based on the old 40kWh model) are correct, you might actually be able to safely use 100% of the 60 when charging. This is a huge deal IMHO when talking about usable range. Time will tell!

 

[RogerHScott]

I agree -- if you were on the fence before, this should push you over unless you really think you need more range (and I think
a lot of people [possibly myself included] overestimate how much range they really need, particularly if the Tesla isn't going to be
their only car).

 

[mshuang]

Thoughts on the new 60?

- $5,000 savings is great but I am not sure losing 10 KW of battery is worth it
- 210 mile EPA range now less than the 3. Back to my original question what will this do to resale values?
- 210 mile EPA range in my mind now means under 200 mile real world range
- $9,000 for 75 kW battery upgrade sounds too expensive. I am not sure I would be willing to spend that much, especially once the 3 comes out.
- overall this sounds great for tesla. Battery will last longer, then they will make a killing buying my used 60 as used 60 price then spend $0 on the software update, $5 changing the badge and selling my car as a 75. Awesome for tesla but for us?
- real open question will supercharging the car be the same as supercharging a 70kw car? by that I mean is battery percentage based on 75kw or 60kw?

The savings for the 10 kWh of battery is worth it. Range is only a factor on Long Distance Travel/Superchargers. I purchased an 85 over the 70 because I thought the extra 15 kWh of battery would make an impact on my range. It doesn't make much of a difference.

60 = 210 miles EPA = 100%
75 = 249 miles EPA, 90% SOC = 224, 85% SOC = 211.65, 80% SOC = 199.2

I commute ~30 miles each way -- this makes my daily usage about 60 miles / day. I don't need to plug in at work, and just plug in when I get home. There's a slight bit of vampire drain over the course of the workday, but on the order of maybe 1 mile every 12 hours. I usually get back with ~ 140-150 remaining. Plug it in and a few hours later, I'm back up to 100%,

There's been speculation that because the 60 is software range limited that using the superchargers will be faster to charge a 60 to full than a 75. The last 10% takes the longest, which is why they recommend it set to 80% which also keeps battery degradation to a min.

 

[jgs]

There's been speculation that because the 60 is software range limited that using the superchargers will be faster to charge a 60 to full than a 75. The last 10% takes the longest, which is why they recommend it set to 80% which also keeps battery degradation to a min.

Yes, someone remarked in another thread (sorry, I'm too lazy to dig it up now) that the 40 was limited simply by not allowing the charge slider to be dragged past that point. Unless they use a really weird strategy, I would expect something analogous on the new 60. If I were purchasing today, I would strongly consider one. Most of the benefits of the 75 (since you can charge all the way to 60 on a daily basis, without taxing the battery and without taper) at a hefty discount, and you can pay the difference and upgrade later if you have buyer's remorse. If I remember right, they didn't increase the price of the 75, right? So what's not to like?

It will be interesting to find out just how fast Tesla can unlock that extra 15 kWh if you decide to pull the trigger. I would think it ought to be achievable near-instantly -- call, provide CC number, giant sucking sound on your credit limit, presto. Even while parked at the Supercharger in the middle of a road trip. Time will tell, of course.

Oh, and there's the $1000 referral discount. Presumably any number of people would be happy to refer you, @xav-, and some of them are actively trying to accumulate referrals so they can win something, so you should use one of their links. But if for some reason you need a referral link, I'm happy to provide mine. Anyway, don't leave the discount on the table.

 

[Beryl]

Overall the benefits to tesla seem to significantly outweigh the benefits to the buyers.

Couldn't disagree more.

• Some people are leery about purchasing the first year of any new model car but was willing to make an exception with Tesla.
• This is a larger car with more storage. (We are appreciating this so much traveling this summer.) It will be tougher to camp inside of a Ξ, if the need arises.
• Buyers with tight budgets can live the Tesla dream now and add features (AP, 72amp charging, 75kw battery) later.
• Guaranteed full tax rebate
• Get ahead of the Model Ξ masses!

 

[travwill]

Th

you are misleading my comments by not rephrasing the whole sentence. Very dishonest! by the way the only tickle will be the model s sales in comparison to model 3 sales in 2018. Elon goal is 500000 cars for 2018 if he achieves that it would be most likely 400000 m3's. Also only 6-7% of all m3 reservations are ms and mx owners the rest are all new to tesla so again your wrong. Specially the Chinese and Europe markets most people don't like large cars. In the US a lot more people like large cars but even there most people will just prefer a m3 like they prefer the BMW 3 series or c class or a4 compared to the large 7 series or s class or a8. Regarding luxury level and quality the model s is not on the same level as the s class so that makes me think how much more luxuries will it be than the model 3. Also performance and drive train it's not going to be much better than the m3 as it's the same and base model is under 6secs. Not much going for the ms compared the the m3. Your also wrong when you say there will only be 1.1 decent EV's. Are you referring to the model 3 as a 0.1. I don't think so buddy. There will be at least 3 great EV's in 2018 the m3 and the ms and the mx. If everything goes to plan tesla will deliver maybe 10 times more m3 compared to ms in 2018. So 0.1 my assss.

I think we'll finally (hopefully) see some EV competition out from Audi and Mercedes (a whole line of EVs) in 2018. As those get announced in next couple weeks throughout next year, previewed at auto shows, press time, it will take away some reservations from Tesla as well. That is the ultimate goal though, right? At the same time, we'll continue to have new Tesla fans reserve continuously and ones that go straight to S/X as well.

 

[SMPL]

I think we'll finally (hopefully) see some EV competition out from Audi and Mercedes (a whole line of EVs) in 2018. As those get announced in next couple weeks throughout next year, previewed at auto shows, press time, it will take away some reservations from Tesla as well. That is the ultimate goal though, right? At the same time, we'll continue to have new Tesla fans reserve continuously and ones that go straight to S/X as well.

No one will ever touch the uniqueness of tesla

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I heard about it on a podcast and just went to look it up:
Autopilot Retrofit on Classic P85 | wk057's SkieNET

It was $9K without labor. He salvaged parts from a wreck he's been taking apart. And he does conclude it would be too tough for Tesla to offer it on the classic cars. So I was wrong about that.

However, depending on what the sensor suite is on the AP 2 cars, it may be possible to upgrade an AP 1 car either partially or completely to AP 2. It may be economically viable to be able to upgrade AP 1 cars to AP 1.5 with a limited set of sensors for AP 2.

With the leaked schematic it does appear that at least some of the AP 2 hardware is being installed in cars today. It may just be the wiring harnesses, but that would make it easier to upgrade 2016 Teslas to AP 2 when it becomes available and they may be thinking about offering that for the 2016s delivered with AP 1 sensors at some point.

OK wdolson---I'm on the fence about buying the MS60 that just went on-sale. The hold up is...can this new car, being delivered in Sept, be outfitted with hardware capable of the AP2 on the horizon. Can they install the hardware, even if the software is not ready? You strongly suggested "yes". Its now June 10 - any changes in your thoughts? [would this upgrade just happen, or would I need to beg/pay for it?]