I get what you are saying but wouldn't you need L4/L5 for this? That is a long ways out. Your Tesla will have 400,000 miles and 15 years on the battery.
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Is FSD refundable
- Thread starter mathieulaforge
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Sounds like a great end point for autonomy.
Too bad all Tesla has sold anyone for $6-$12K is L2, where the human is responsible for any and all accidents, including those where the L2 system failed and required more action by the driver. Tesla is nowhere near a system that is safer than a human driver with no human present. We're nowhere near that $12K getting you "free insurance" because it's so much better than a human.
Humans are pretty damn good actually. One fatality every 90M miles? Sure, autonomy will get there someday, but that is not a trivially low bar to beat. You'd need to be at 1:500M probably before your insurance would be less than $12K for the life of the car. A billion miles is a really long way, with a lot of really crazy corner cases to deal with (or just fold into your 1:500M statistics).
That is fantastic but I am not sure how FSD realistically goes from being worth $5k to $12k to $100k? They can charge that but then how many will be able to afford it? So is the plan to take a Toyota Corolla for $20k and add FSD for $100k? So folks are going to be driving around $120k Toyota Corollas? This is absurd unless you are talking 50 years from now.
Furthermore, it is silly to think that other car manufacturers will not able to build compelling EVs or autonomous driving features. These companies have access to great talent in the industry and I am sure there is more than one way to tackle this problem.
OncomingStorm
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pure speculation on my part....
the fact that he said it would be worth 100k doesn't really mean they will be selling it for that much at any point in the future so thats a little arbitrary but selling it as a 20k or 30k option on the higher end models is not out of the question (assuming its fully flushed out and works well lol). it seems unlikely they would add it to cars that dont currently have their most advanced features, so even when this happend you wouldn't see an FSD Trax on the road lol, but an escalade? perhaps.
and to the point of the other auto manufactures using tesla's tech, thats a no brainer, i'm not really aware of any software feature that was created by any auto manufacturer, they pretty much always license software from 3rd parties, sometimes exclusively but still.
I’m a defensive driver...my father was an ambulance driver and he told me that the last words people often spoke as he scraped them off the road was, ‘I was in the right’...so I’ve always took the attitude of better to be cautious than right..but in high density traffic a defensive driver often can’t make any progress..especially pulling out into traffic. Recently Tesla said they were going to offer an aggressive option....that should be interesting to see
I don't think anyone knows that, because it's completely illogical. To believe it it representative of Tesla's current capabilities or volume is silly. It's clearly a gamble of how Tesla will do in the future, not evidence that they have done it or will succeed for sure. That gamble might pay off. It might not.
I promise you that if a company came out of stealth mode tomorrow and could actually ship broad scale working L3+ autonomy for less than $5K in hardware, Tesla's valuation would collapse, showing that it's not based on current value but an assumption of a leadership position.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
GMs Q4 21 revenue was 33.58 billion, with 1.7 billion in net income.
Teslas Q4 21 revenue was 17.72 billion, with 2.32 billion in net income.
Tesla had half the revenue but 50% more profit (and would've been ANOTHER 15% higher but for a one-time charge for Elons exercised stock option grants)
GM is guiding for 2022 to be about the same as 2021. Tesla is guiding for significantly more than 50% growth.
Because one still almost entirely sells ICE vehicles with declining demand and narrow profit margins, and one entirely sells EVs with massive demand and massive profit margins.
Over at Ford, if you remove the profit from their finance arm, they actually LOSE money on the car business- and much of their Q4 profit was provided by the mark to market gains from holding Rivian stock (which has since declined quite a lot)
Again that's only going to get worse for legacy as they sell fewer ICE vehicles where they actually make a decent profit, but keep having problems profitably scaling up EVs.
If you don't understand why Tesla is the most valuable car company you're just not paying attention.
And that's valuing FSD at $0.00, and entirely ignoring the energy business that's likely to have a pretty big year with megapack expansion.
Teslas Q4 21 revenue was 17.72 billion, with 2.32 billion in net income.
Tesla had half the revenue but 50% more profit (and would've been ANOTHER 15% higher but for a one-time charge for Elons exercised stock option grants)
GM is guiding for 2022 to be about the same as 2021. Tesla is guiding for significantly more than 50% growth.
Because one still almost entirely sells ICE vehicles with declining demand and narrow profit margins, and one entirely sells EVs with massive demand and massive profit margins.
Over at Ford, if you remove the profit from their finance arm, they actually LOSE money on the car business- and much of their Q4 profit was provided by the mark to market gains from holding Rivian stock (which has since declined quite a lot)
Again that's only going to get worse for legacy as they sell fewer ICE vehicles where they actually make a decent profit, but keep having problems profitably scaling up EVs.
If you don't understand why Tesla is the most valuable car company you're just not paying attention.
And that's valuing FSD at $0.00, and entirely ignoring the energy business that's likely to have a pretty big year with megapack expansion.
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There is a massive difference between "most valuable" and "priced at 5X the nearest competitor (Toyota) who had 4X the revenue and profit and car sales"
If Tesla's stock price is based on raw fundamentals and comparisons to other auto manufacturers, it wouldn't have dropped >33% YTD. Toyota is up YTD.
Tesla is worth a lot, and quite likely more than other automakers for good reasons. But to say it's overall value is not highly based on a future gamble highly tied to Autonomy is equally not paying attention.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Toyota sales were down 15% last quarter, revenue and net income were down as well. Teslas were all records.
Toyota sold ~6.5x as many vehicles as Tesla, but took in only 3.8x the income, and made less than 3x the profit.
And Toyota is even further behind on the EV transition than Ford and GM.
At current pace Tesla likely passes GM and Ford for profit either this year or next... and Toyota by 2024.
They're already WAY ahead of all of them on profit per vehicle.
That's pretty fundamental.
This is complete nonsense.
The ENTIRE MARKET is down massively YTD.
S&P 500 is down 10% YTD.
Tesla down 33%.
GM down 22%
Ford down 20%
VW down 8%
Toyota Flat
Mercedes UP 8%
Honda UP 8%
Tesla is literally leading the losses YTD because the market sees it as over valued. Your money in ANY other car company on Jan 1st would have gained you 10-40% relative to Tesla. That's the signal of a speculative market around future success, not fundamentals.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, it's a sign of you cherry picking dates to try and look less silly.
For example if I check previous 6M instead of YTD, Tesla is up 12.6%.
Honda is only up 3.49%.
Mercedes only up 1.76%
VW down almost 16%
If you'd like to zoom out somewhat further it looks even worse for everyone not named Tesla.
I had FSD on my last two Teslas 2018 3 and 2019 X and will probably buy it again on my 2022 S. I’d miss the lane change and beep on green light (not worth $10K but definitely worth something). The change lane using the blinker makes up for lack of true blind spot warning since FSD decides when to go. I don’t use any other feature and have the FSD Beta. Hoping one day it will have more features I like. It’s way over priced at the moment for sure.
I also factor in the fact Tesla is giving me a incredible trade in on my X and I have to think some of that is the FSD I’m trading in. At least that’s how I lie to myself to get it.
I also factor in the fact Tesla is giving me a incredible trade in on my X and I have to think some of that is the FSD I’m trading in. At least that’s how I lie to myself to get it.
Are you trying to argue that a stock which went up 40% and then down 30% in a 6 month period is based on strong fundamentals? Against Toyota who is up 10% in a nice gradual climb over that time, even while being clearly crushed by Tesla by 2024?
My point is that Tesla's value is highly tied to autonomy, and that value is highly variant right now as it's speculation. The huge swings in Tesla's value over time demonstrates that. Sure, there is a baseline value there, but there's a lot of the top side that is not fundamental.
Yeah, first argue that everyone is down YTD, then when disproven, claim YTD is silly....
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's up almost 1500% in the last 5 years.
Toyota is up almost 64% in the last 5 years.
You can always find SOME date that makes a company look better or worse.
But for Tesla you'd have trouble finding one that makes it look worse unless you pick a quite narrow range.
But that point is wrong.
Gary Black and others often mention the street bakes roughly $0 value into stuff they don't understand like RTs.
Really? So you're sure that if Tesla announced tomorrow that they are stopping work on Autonomy because it will never work, that their value would not change at all?
Any explanation why Tesla was $800 6 months ago and today, but was $1200 3 months ago if it's tied to fundamentals and awesome Q4 performance?
Again, one of those looks like a stable company valued on fundamentals, the other is based on future speculation. That's OBVIOUS from the fact that Tesla has less profit/sales than Toyota, yet 5X the market cap.
People are paying for what they HOPE Tesla will be. Both in sales and FSD. Why would they value future vehicle sales so highly, yet autonomy that Elon claims will be 10X as profitable as vehicles at zero? Why is Tesla's 12 month average P/E 125X vs normal automotive being 15X? Because it's based on a future gamble, not proven data from today. Tesla's current value basically requires it to take over 100% of passenger vehicle sales on the planet.
It may not build 100% of future cars (although the Model X could be the best selling car in the world) but Tesla software could one day be in 100% of all cars and one day 100% of cars could charge at Tesla superchargers
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