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June 20th Speculation

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In a talk with someone form Tesla the subject of battery swap was brought up. He said they would not be doing it at all. The reason is if someone does not take care of there battery you could possibly wind up with a bad battery. We also discussed Chademo charging. Tesla computers decide how much charge the battery gets and how. Chademo computers decide how to charge the battery now you have two computers trying to outdo each other. Chademo will overcharge the battery whereas Tesla does not allow that to happen.
 
I think the swapping will be done at the supercharger stations. Eventually every supercharger station will have 4 charging ports + 1 swap station. If you look at the pic of the 4-port supercharger station with an obelisk, there's one empty space to the right of the first charger. The swapping station will be there.

I envision it as a low height platform between guides for the car wheels. The car drives over this platform. Ideally the station wirelessly communicates with the car, and the car drives the last meter automatically. The station has a laser to determine when the car should stop, and the car stops automatically.

The batteries will be underground.
When the car stops, the lid under it will open, and a robotic swapping thing will come up to remove the battery. It will not be a general purpose manipulator (arm). It will be a simple flat platform that goes up, aligns a little with the battery, unscrews/unlocks the battery and pulls it down.

As soon as it goes down and to the side (underground), the second similar platform with a battery goes up and attaches the new battery to the car.

All this can take very little time.

The station can wirelessly exchange info with the car before and during the swap. For example, if the battery in the car is worn-out too much, the station can refuse to swap it before the car even gets close to it.

The battery health can be measured in points. If my battery is 100 points, and I swap it to a battery with 90 points, my balance is 10 points. If the opposite happens, my balance would be -10 points. The points may be converted to money (credit or additional fee for the next battery swap).

And building out an underground system will cost how much? Doesn't seem like a very cost effective approach. Battery swapping maybe but it needs to be simpler.
 
If Tesla did battery swapping it would only make sense to do it at Service Centers where they already have the lifts, equipment, and personnel to do it. $0 additional infrastructure needed. Building automated battery swap systems at Superchargers is just ridiculous, costly, high maintenance, and low reliability.

Is everyone sure there isn't a larger direct connect port into the battery pack under the car near the front (under the nose)?
 
Since this presentation is at a supercharger location it means that they are going to demonstrate a way to recharge a used battery quick. I doubt it is battery swapping, since swapping does not make any sense at all; absolutely none. Who drives 12 hours straight without any breaks? 3 hours of driving, 30 minutes of break sounds like a perfect trip anyway. And since you only take a handful of road trips a year, there is no reason you can't wait a few minutes to recharge. If you take road trips every day then buy an ICE (for now).

I cannot come up with one situation where I would want to swap my battery, like ever.

For those who talk about battery swaps in big cities at service center: well I am not driving on the other end of a city just to swap a battery. Plain stupid! Rather sit at the supercharger for 30 minutes on my way to the city.

For those who live in apartments, can't afford model s anyway. If you can afford one then go lobby to put an outlet next to your parking spot (and pay for it).

Swapping for a bigger battery at 500 mile range. Makes no sense at all either. I can't drive 500 miles without taking a one hour stop anyway. Might as well keep my 250 mile range and stop for 30 minutes every 3 hours.

The only goal of Tesla should be to reduce the charge time in half one more time and call it a day. If it gets quicker than that then awesome, but not necessary. I drive more than the average driver about 15,000 - 20,000 miles a year, but in the past year would have never had to use a supercharger not even once. Never do more than 200 miles a day.

There is not one scenario where battery swapping makes sense.
 
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The station can wirelessly exchange info with the car before and during the swap. For example, if the battery in the car is worn-out too much, the station can refuse to swap it before the car even gets close to it.
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I hesitate to chime in on yet another "hey let's talk about battery swap in every thread" discussion but I couldn't resist.

On many occasions, folks (including me) have thought of the 12V battery as the Achilles' heel of the Model S. But when you consider ideas like this, the 12V gives them the ability to keep the vehicle alive while the propulsion battery is disconnected.
 
I doubt it is battery swapping, since swapping does not make any sense at all; absolutely none. Who drives 12 hours straight without any breaks? 3 hours of driving, 30 minutes of break sounds like a perfect trip anyway. And since you only take a handful of road trips a year, there is no reason you can't wait a few minutes to recharge. If you take road trips every day then buy an ICE (for now).

I cannot come up with one situation where I would want to swap my battery, like ever.

For those who talk about battery swaps in big cities at service center: well I am not driving on the other end of a city just to swap a battery. Plain stupid! Rather sit at the supercharger for 30 minutes on my way to the city.

For those who live in apartments, can't afford model s anyway. If you can afford one then go lobby to put an outlet next to your parking spot (and pay for it).

Swapping for a bigger battery at 500 mile range. Makes no sense at all either. I can't drive 500 miles without taking a one hour stop anyway. Might as well keep my 250 mile range and stop for 30 minutes every 3 hours.

The only goal of Tesla should be to reduce the charge time in half one more time and call it a day. If it gets quicker than that then awesome, but not necessary. I drive more than the average driver about 15,000 - 20,000 miles a year, but in the past year would have never had to use a supercharger not even once. Never do more than 200 miles a day.

There is not one scenario where battery swapping makes sense.

I agree 100% with everything above.
I cannot think of a single situation where I would do a battery swap. The Supercharger network seems absolutely perfect to me.

If it is a battery swap, it is not an option that I would even consider paying extra for. What a waste of money. I don't care if it is a one time fee, subscription, whatever.
I own my battery pack. I don't want to risk getting one that was abused. I don't want Tesla to use my battery pack as a grid backup.

Focus on improving the battery pack and recharging rates so we can go from 120 kw to 240 kw.
Maybe two superchargers plugged into the same Model S and charging different parts of the battery pack at the same time.
 
They announce that packs can be swapped within a couple of minutes at service stations. AND they've developed a 500-mile pack that will be available for short-term rentals (for road trips, presumably).

This. I recall the ability to temporarily get a bigger pack for long distance trips was mentioned in Tesla literature way back when the 'S was first announced.
 
Since this presentation is at a supercharger location it means that they are going to demonstrate a way to recharge a used battery quick. I doubt it is battery swapping, since swapping does not make any sense at all; absolutely none. Who drives 12 hours straight without any breaks? 3 hours of driving, 30 minutes of break sounds like a perfect trip anyway. And since you only take a handful of road trips a year, there is no reason you can't wait a few minutes to recharge. If you take road trips every day then buy an ICE (for now).

I cannot come up with one situation where I would want to swap my battery, like ever.

For those who talk about battery swaps in big cities at service center: well I am not driving on the other end of a city just to swap a battery. Plain stupid! Rather sit at the supercharger for 30 minutes on my way to the city.

For those who live in apartments, can't afford model s anyway. If you can afford one then go lobby to put an outlet next to your parking spot (and pay for it).

Swapping for a bigger battery at 500 mile range. Makes no sense at all either. I can't drive 500 miles without taking a one hour stop anyway. Might as well keep my 250 mile range and stop for 30 minutes every 3 hours.

The only goal of Tesla should be to reduce the charge time in half one more time and call it a day. If it gets quicker than that then awesome, but not necessary. I drive more than the average driver about 15,000 - 20,000 miles a year, but in the past year would have never had to use a supercharger not even once. Never do more than 200 miles a day.

There is not one scenario where battery swapping makes sense.

Borrowing from what Elon Musk refers to "First Principle", let's look at this without constraints. Meaning, let's say Tesla solves the battery ownership problem and you're guaranteed as good as or better battery than your original battery somehow. And then, let's assume battery swap is available at every Supercharging station and it takes 1 minute. Why would you ever want to use a Supercharger?
 
They have lots of patents for a "hybrid lithium / metal-air battery pack", perhaps that's what would be swapped in, it could certainly have a 500 mile (or better range). Swapping that in for long road trips until the SuperCharger network has been fully deployed would be a game changer, as you'd have the range before the nationwide SuperChargers are full deployed. I think this could be a possibility.

That's the sort of thing I would like to see. Of course, I have no idea how close they are to producing something like that on a usable scale. OTOH, they could possibly have a working prototype, and that would be very impressive. Regular battery swapping would be lame, IMHO.
 
To take a somewhat longer view on the topic of swapping, I can easily see a near future where primary battery swapping becomes a positive attribute, where it begins to merge with the concept of battery upgrade. Basically we may expect to see batteries improve in performance at an ever-increasing rate as scientists and the industry are only now focusing on the technology as it applies to cars. At that point you won't care about your own battery because you will want the next better one out in a year or so - at that point a battery leasing plan makes sense, just as updating the OS for your car makes sense now. But I don't think we're there yet with either the technology or the consumer mindset.

Of course I secretly hope Tesla proves me wrong next week...
 
It's a demonstration announcement (not being done in a conference call) and it's the "under you nose" announcement as well.

Battery swap seems likely. I'm not a fan but Tesla typically wants to beat whatever is out there so some element is not being discussed here. Cheaper than gas, fast as or faster than a gas fillup. Perhaps the battery is always better or as good as the one in your car.

If it's the battery bank to battery fill-up in 5 minutes that could be done with an empty car right there while they talk. Could be pretty impressive demo. Maybe a video playback like at the SC announcement of a trip from SF to LA with and ICE and a MS leaving at the same time and the MS getting to Hawthorne there first having battery bank charged on the way. (on solar and for free).

It will also be the debt of sorts of the new obelisk.
 
The reason to short the stock is only if they announce serious CAPEX plans to start building battery swap stations. There is no proven demand for that option. Better Place spent $800 million on the idea and went bankrupt due to lack of demand. They blew through $800 million in just Israel, Hawaii and Denmark trying to make it work. Investors know that. For the long term financial health of the company and the chance that they will be around to service your car, we can only hope that this is not the plan.

Better Place went bankrupt because they essentially had no cars to charge! Just that crappy little Renault. If everyone looked at the first of the many airplane designs that failed and said "Man can't fly," we wouldn't have airplanes. NASA has said for the last 50 years that rockets aren't reusable and thought SpaceX was crazy for believing otherwise. How's that working out? Look, I don't think it's a fantastic financial decision, but I do think it's not a bankruptcy precursor either. As a 60kwh owner, I'd sure use the swap option!

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If Tesla did battery swapping it would only make sense to do it at Service Centers where they already have the lifts, equipment, and personnel to do it. $0 additional infrastructure needed. Building automated battery swap systems at Superchargers is just ridiculous, costly, high maintenance, and low reliability.

Is everyone sure there isn't a larger direct connect port into the battery pack under the car near the front (under the nose)?

And my service center guys just don't seem convincing when trying to tell me that the reason they have three huge battery crates is that if a battery goes bad they want a quick replacement available. I don't buy that at all. If my main battery died, I'd be absolutely happy to wait a couple days for a replacement.

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There is not one scenario where battery swapping makes sense.

I think you mean "makes sense for you." I have a 60kwh and would love to pay a fee for the occasional 85kwh swap for long trips, or to swap for another 60kwh when arriving to my destination, where there is no supercharger. For example, if I drive to Houston from Austin, even if I supercharge en route (when that exists), I can't recharge on the way, drive around Houston, and still make it back to the SC. Makes sense to me!
 
Swapping for a bigger battery at 500 mile range. Makes no sense at all either. I can't drive 500 miles without taking a one hour stop anyway. Might as well keep my 250 mile range and stop for 30 minutes every 3 hours.

At the risk of getting off topic: It's not about being able to drive for 10 hours without stopping. It's about being able to go further between charges (and, with vampire drain, time is a factor as well - 10 miles of range loss/day can quickly add up).

I'm currently planning a trip from LA to SF. Superchargers on the way up will be great. But then I'm headed a little further north, to Sebastopol for a day, and then back down and over to Tahoe. Say I charge at Harris Ranch on the way up, and then cut over to Gilroy to top off. Gilroy to Sebastopol is 131 miles. Then I'll need to stop in Folsom to recharge on the way to Tahoe - that's another 120 miles. So we're looking at 251 miles between supercharger stops. Potentially doable, but a bit too close for my taste; I'll definitely want to recharge somewhere along the way.

For me, this is a situation in which a 500-mile range battery would make this trip a lot easier to plan and let me spend more time enjoying my trip and less time seeking out the Superchargers (or public stations where I can park overnight). For that benefit, I'd gladly drive over to our service center, rent a 500-mile pack for the week, and then swap it back out for my battery upon my return.
 
I would pay absolutely $0.00 for this option.
I would not pay for it as an extra during purchase.
I would not pay for it as a fee per use.
I would not pay for it in any way.

Would you pay for it with a mouse? Would you pay for it in a house?
Would you pay for it with a fox? In a box?
On a train, in the rain?

:) I can't be the only one one who heard this...
 
Will the hypothetical swap stations also carry the two Genlll battery sizes too? Does that make 4 to have in stock?

You are starting to get the idea of why the battery swap concept is a financial and logistical nightmare.
The battery swap station needs to have all sizes in stock for every model. And they also likely need multiple packs of every size and every model always ready to go.

After a few years the Model S will likely switch to a new battery type. Perhaps the new cells will have a higher energy density. There will be other improvements. Perhaps one of those major improvements will result in the unfortunate situation that the prior 3-4 years of Model S production will not be able to easily be upgraded to the new battery pack technology. So now Tesla will have to also support battery swaps for different years of the Model S and different sizes.

Model X, Model S, Gen III, Roadster 3.0, each having different size battery packs, each having a refresh every few years that might also mean a different battery pack.
The number of different battery packs that would need to be kept in stock for a battery swap station starts to get really crazy.

The idea of a battery swap sounds cool and interesting to the amateur who has not really done the math. But when you really think about the logistics of what would be needed in a battery swap station, then you realize that each station is going to be massively expensive to build and support. It is technically possible, but it is financially illiterate long term. It would bankrupt the company if they really make that the solution and build a full network based on the battery swaps.

It is so stupid that I plan to cancel my Model S order if they announce they are spending major dollars to build a battery swap network. I have no desire to own a car from a company that won't be around to support it long term.I honestly think this idea is that bad. I will reverse the charges on my credit card for the $2,500 deposit. I will wait until Tesla proves that it works and won't bankrupt the company. It would be too risky to own the car if they are doing this with major CAPEX dollars.